Analysis: Gainline battle to decide World Cup Final

Adam Kyriacou

Our analyst Sam Larner returns to Planet Rugby and shines a light on the crucial gainline battle in this Saturday’s Rugby World Cup Final.

England’s start against New Zealand set them up to dominate the rest of the match. South Africa were the better team early on against New Zealand in their opening game but they failed to convert, scoring just three points in the first half. England led the early exchanges and also led on the scoreboard, 10-0 up at half-time. It is something that South Africa will have to be wary of. How do they deal with England when the 2003 world champions hit their best?

As complicated as rugby may appear at times it is really very simple. It is a battle to win the gainline. Everything that happens in rugby boils down to the attack trying to get over the gainline and the defence trying to stop them. Get over the gainline and the attacking opportunities open up. Fail to get over the gainline and you will find your attack stutters and stops.

This is the second English carry of the semi-final. It is Tom Curry and he is successful in getting just over the gainline (blue). It is barely two metres but it forces the Kiwis to move backwards before they can start realigning. That takes time and it means that the All Blacks are not in the best defensive situation for the next phase.

That presents an easier attacking opportunity for England. The All Blacks cannot get off their defensive line because they did not have the time to realign. That gives Elliot Daly the opportunity to blast through on the outside shoulder of Ardie Savea and link up with Anthony Watson to get into the New Zealand 22.

England have broken the gainline twice and now get to run at an All Blacks defence in disarray. The defenders have to flock to the breakdown after a clean break and that leaves space on the far side of the pitch. Jamie George has been lurking there since he threw in at the lineout to start the attacking move and Daly has drifted over to provide a playmaker. George ends up with the ball and carries over into the New Zealand 22 once again. Again getting over the gainline.

The New Zealand defence has been pulled backwards and side to side and they are now out of position. All 15 players are visible in the above photo; Jack Goodhue and Beauden Barrett the only two who look like they may be in a defensive line. The England interchange between Courtney Lawes, Kyle Sinckler and George Ford now has England threatening the line.

Getting over the gainline begins to take the form of a boulder running down a hill. The first time you get over it becomes a little harder for the defence to line up, because of the reasons we shared above. That then makes it harder to stop them getting over the gainline and they begin to go into a downward spiral. That happened to the All Blacks. Curry only just got over the gainline but his carry made it just a little harder for New Zealand to defend the ensuing phase.

That all leads to this. Three New Zealand defenders are on the floor and out of the game and four are stood in the ruck marking nobody. Manu Tuilagi just needs to pick up the ball and dive through the hole that should be covered. England go 7-0 up and they never lost that lead.

England were third of all quarter-finalists for gainline success after the pool stage. Their 38.6% was beaten only by Australia and New Zealand. England have dispatched both teams and now face seventh place South Africa in the final. The trouble for South Africa is how do they stop all the English carriers. It is possible to stop Billy Vunipola or Sinckler. You can crowd out Tuilagi and tackle him before he breaks through your gainline. It is not possible to give all the English carriers the same level of attention though. Sometimes you need your defenders to make positive one on one tackles.

If you win the gainline you have an excellent chance of winning the game. Can South Africa stop the progress of England? That is the battleground to watch.

by Sam Larner