Analysis: Finding weaknesses in the Premiership finalists
Our analyst Sam Larner returns to Planet Rugby and this week reflects on the Premiership semi-finals that played out as many had expected.
You would be forgiven for looking back at the Premiership semi-finals and wondering what the point of it all was. The two teams who were expected to dominate did dominate. In fact, if we said that Saracens dominated Leinster defensively in the Champions Cup final then this was something completely different. This was a complete demolition job.
In fact, as I was watching the second halves dragging on, long after the games had been decided, I began to think of ways that we could avoid these games. We know that player welfare is important and here was an opportunity to cut out an unnecessary game. My thoughts were this, you need to finish within 15 points of your opposition to play them in the play-off semi-finals. Saracens and Gloucester would still play but the Chiefs would get a bye through the first round thanks to their 30 point advantage over Northampton Saints.
There is already a precedent for this in something like American Football where the best teams in the regular season get to avoid playing one of the banana skin games in the play-offs. This is not an idea I’ve spent a long time testing and identifying weaknesses in but I think it has some clear advantages. Of course, the biggest weakness is that a team would potentially lose a home semi-final and the revenue associated with that.
However, the strengths are also pretty clear, it would keep the league alive even when two teams are dominating by forcing the leading team to pad their gap and the teams in third and fourth to continue the chase. Think about this season, virtually from the start we knew who the top two teams would be; Saracens got maximum points from their first five games and Exeter got maximum points from four of their first five games. That meant that the excitement for the neutral was limited to the relegation battle until the last few games of the season when the play-off picture became clearer. This format change would mean that the play-offs were relevant throughout the season.
I’m not here exclusively to make my pitch to be in charge of the Premiership though. Despite the huge gulf in ability between Saracens and Exeter and their opponents on Saturday there were periods of both games where the Saints and Gloucester were on top. It may have been fleeting but they both caused some problems for their hosts. Let’s look at how they did it and how Saracens and Exeter might exploit similar weaknesses.
We know that Sarries have a defence based on fast line speed. The idea is simple, get into the faces of the attackers quickly and you give them less time to pull off any moves or find the right pass. However, you also cut down your own thinking time and increase the chances that you will make a mistake. In this example Danny Cipriani has the ball and two forwards running that hard line at the defenders. Again that’s a simple attack, the hard running forwards should attract defenders and then when the ball is delivered out the back there should be space if the forwards attracted more defenders than they should have.
Look how those two forwards attracted four defenders. That has created a disconnect between the narrow defenders and those defending out wide.
That disconnect creates two sets of defenders; the inside defenders, in red, and the outside defenders, in blue. Gloucester take advantage of that by popping the ball back inside and going straight through the hole between the two defenders.
Later in the first half a similar situation happens. There’s just one hard runner this time with Cipriani out the back. Again the situation is the same, the hard runner fixes the defenders and Gloucester look to exploit the space on the outside.
That isolates the outside defenders and Nick Tompkins ends up making a bad call. It should be another try for Gloucester but Alex Goode rushes up into the passing lane and intercepts. It was at this point that the game was really done for Gloucester.
When Gloucester posed problems it was because of Cipriani’s ability to put people into space. Gloucester had their forwards running hard lines and exploiting Saracens’ line speed. The faster Sarries came up the more likely it was that they left a gap in their defence. Gloucester were good when they were able to attract more defenders by their hard runners than the number of hard runners. That allowed them to exploit the outside defenders who were, all of a sudden, in a much more stressful defensive position than they had anticipated.
Exeter looked like they would dominate from the start but Northampton clawed themselves back into it in the second quarter. One thing that will be concerning to Exeter is how the Saints beat them in the air. In this example Dan Biggar targeted fly-half Joe Simmonds with a well placed kick.
Tom Collins won the ball back and that started the Saints’ second try of the game. We know that Saracens will kick and probably kick well in the final and so Exeter will need to improve this area of their game if they are to avoid a horrible day under high balls.
Biggar once again showcased his kicking ability with this cross-field kick to Taqele Naiyaravoro. What is arguably more concerning isn’t the successful kick but the fact that Biggar can do this with impunity because Exeter have conceded a penalty advantage. They then go on to concede another one almost immediately after. Exeter will really suffer if they are unable to defend on their line without giving away penalties.
Those penalties allow Saints to throw caution to the wind and attack the wide open spaces where the risk of getting turned over increases. Ahsee Tuala ends up scoring this try after some wonderful hands out wide. However, if you give any good team lots of opportunities to attack with an advantage in your 22 then these tries will happen.
Northampton should have gone into the break with a lead were it not for an uncharacteristic Cobus Reinach mistake. This is simple defending though, you expect to see a guard, then someone next to the guard (bodyguard) and someone defending the first receiver at least. Rory Hutchinson identifies a great big hole between the bodyguard and the player marking him and he’s gone. Saints mess up the two-on-one but you can’t see Saracens doing that too frequently.
Conclusion
Neither team were perfect in their semi-finals despite the scoreline. However, if you are Saracens you will be looking at aspects of Exeter’s performance and rubbing your hands with glee. Expect to see a barrage of high balls aimed directly at the likes of Simmonds and Tom O’Flaherty. Exeter certainly have more work to do and I think they go into this game as outsiders but there are weaknesses in the Saracens game. The line speed the North London team get is impressive but there are ways of breaking it down. Expect to see Exeter keep ball in hand and look for ways of attacking the isolated outside backs. Either way, this should be some game.