Air NZ Cup Preview: Wellington v Southland
Underdogs Southland make the daunting trip to Westpac Stadium to take on hosts Wellington in the first Air New Zealand Cup semi-final of the weekend.
Underdogs Southland make the daunting trip to Westpac Stadium on Friday to take on hosts Wellington in the first Air New Zealand Cup semi-final of the weekend.
The Stags, surprise packets of the final quartet, marched themselves into the history books by becoming the first Southland team to reach the semi-final stage of New Zealand's premier provincial rugby competition.
The way they dismantled Bay of Plenty 45-11 away from home suggests the Stags are a side riding a wave of confidence at the moment and are now given a 50-50 chance of making the final.
Motivation will not be a problem for the visitors after going down 45-3 in their quarter-final in the capital last year and with memories still fresh in the player's minds, revenge will no doubt be on the cards.
But for all of the Stags' burgeoning belief, they know that Wellington are hot favourites.
The Lions, who topped the round-robin standings and beat Taranaki 50-30 in their quarter-final in typically breath-taking fashion, will have seven past or present All Blacks in their starting XV to Southland's one in scrum-half Jimmy Cowan.
But there are growing questions over the Lions' title credentials after they gave up 20 points or more for the third week running.
Like Tasman and Otago, Taranaki kept pace with Wellington largely due to the home side's willingness to attack from anywhere rather than shut the match down after building a lead.
So despite the Lions' 19th straight win on their home turf last weekend, many of their fans would have left grumbling, perhaps presumptuously, that such a performance would not beat Canterbury – should they play them in the final.
If Wellington are able to get into their expansive stride, attacking from turnovers and playing with width, they will cruise into the final. But Taranaki showed last week that, if you slow Wellington down at the breakdown and limit their chances from turnover ball, they have a chance of being beaten – just ask Otago.
Southland have an honest, hard-working pack with one or two class acts like prop Jamie Mackintosh and they should give the Lions all they can handle up front.
Interestingly Wellington coach Jamie Joseph has opted for two props on the bench – Tim Fairbrother and Jacob Ellison – an indication of the strength of Southland's set-piece and the fact the Stags are not afraid to play an expansive game either.
But the Stags, and plenty of other teams, know all too well the pitfalls of slackening off for even a minute against Wellington. Playing hard for the full 80 minutes will be crucial to Southland's chances.
Head to head: The back-line reshuffle has given the Lions a very dangerous looking back three. Ma'a Nonu made a couple of defensive miscues last week that cost tries and his power and line-breaking ability is prefered from the right wing this weekend. But it's on the left which has been a troublesome position this year for Wellington's opposition. Hosea Gear, in devastating form, needs one more try to break Bernie Fraser's 27-year-old Wellington single-season record of twelve tries. Based on this tournament's performances alone, Gear must already have one foot on the All Blacks flight for Europe in November. Though he will need to get past Pehi Te Whare first, who caused all sorts of alarms in the Bay of Plenty defence with some strong, straight running that ended with a brace of tries for the dreadlocked speedster.
Prediction: Four of the Stags' six wins this season had come on the road, and while Southland could overcome the home advantage that the Lions will have from an expected big crowd at Westpac Stadium, this will be one road-trip that will see the southerners return home empty handed. Wellington to win by ten points or more.
The teams:
Wellington: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Ma'a Nonu, 13 Tane Tu'ipulotu, 12 Tamati Ellison, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Piri Weepu (c), 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Rodney So'oialo, 6 Chris Masoe, 5 Jeremy Thrush, 4 Ross Filipo, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Dane Coles, 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Tim Fairbrother, 19 Api Naikatini, 20 Serge Lilo, 21 Daniel Kirkpatrick, 22 Conrad Smith.
Southland: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Matt Saunders, 13 Kendrick Lynn, 12 Jason Kawau, 11 Pehi Te Whare, 10 Blair Stewart, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 David Hall, 7 Tim Boys, 6 Dion Bates, 5 Hoani Macdonald, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Chris King, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (c).
Replacements: 16 Matt Holloway, 17 Fai Mika, 18 Daniel Ramsay, 19 John Hardie, 20 Scott Cowan, 21 Mark Wells, 22 Willie Rickards.
Date: Friday, October 17
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Referee: Steve Walsh
Touch judges: Kelvin Deaker, Vinny Munro
Television match official: Ben Skeen