Analysis: How the Super Rugby final was won
This week’s analysis article from Sam Larner will be focused on how the Crusaders won and the Lions lost last Saturday’s Super Rugby final.
One team runs for 417 metres, the other runs for 415 metres, which is the most proficient team? This is where uncontextualised stats fall down, in the above example, the Lions have the former and the Crusaders the latter, but the Crusaders were by far the best running team.
Across the season, the Lions averaged 4.5 metres a carry, the Crusaders were just behind with 4.3 metres. In the final, the Lions carried far more often and averaged a fairly pitiful 2.9 metres a carry whereas the Crusaders romped home with 5 metres a carry exactly.
All of the following should be framed around the fact that the Lions did get a red card. Although, it should be noted that the Crusaders were 12-3 up when the card was given, which means that the final 41 minutes, when the Lions were down to 14, they actually outscored the Kiwi side 14–13. So, how were the high flying Lions cut down by the Crusaders, and how did the Crusaders ramp up their running threat?
Let’s start with the Crusaders first, they were rampant in the first-half and laid most of the foundations for their victory here. This clip leads up to the second try and a lot of the damage here is done thanks to the speed of the ball. But it’s the offloading out of the tackle as well which frees up the space and lets Jack Goodhue, who ends up scoring the try, run through into the gap.
Compare that to the Lions; this clip is later on when the game is all but gone. The ruck is on the halfway line and the Lions proceed to lose virtually 10 metres here. This clip has the same number of passes as the first one, believe me – there’s an element of planning that goes into these articles, but not a single one draws the man and the defence can just advance up and close down the space.
Anyone who has read my articles on the Lions or the Springboks will know that I rate Elton Jantjies highly, but this is a match up that you want. You want your big powerful wing coming around the corner and running at the undersized fly-half. This happens because everything in the play is moving forward and holding the defence static in their tracks. The defenders don’t have the time to rearrange and help Jantjies out.
Staying with the Crusaders, this is another example of why you should just run forward! It sounds perversely simple, running forward gets your more metres per carry, and obviously it is, to an extent. But the principles remain, running straight means that you create holes and holes make yardage easier to obtain. They are testing for weak shoulders and the wrap around allows Ryan Crotty and Codie Taylor to fix the same man and the offload is the exquisite finish to the move.
Back to the Lions. There is clearly a time and place for a pick and go or a short pass to a static forward. But this is really inviting the opposition, especially a team as good at turning ball over as the Crusaders, to come and slow down the next phase. These kind of plays are a swamp, when it comes to trying to gain yardage.
Compare the clip above with the previous one and the next one. The Crusaders are gaining yardage because they are leeching onto the back of the runner and stealing those extra yards. The Lions’ runners are asked to do too much by themselves in these short yardage situations. Yes, Scott Barrett takes a while to get to ground in this play, but the ball is played quickly because the second player secures it immediately.
In this clip, the ball is played quickly by the Lions but this is a single runner trying to outfox the defence. Defences are now so good that this kind of attack is just tackling practice for them, unless it can be backed up by a strong attack when the ball goes wide. As we’ve seen before, and we’ll look at again, the Lions weren’t very good at this.
It’s easy to see why Jantjies gradually crept back away from the gainline as the game progressed. Early on, he was playing much flatter, but against a fast defensive effort. Jantjies gets flattened by Kieran Read and the turnover ball leads directly to the opening try.
That meant that the line wasn’t being fixed, and when the ball was distributed behind, the defence could just continue moving up the pitch. This rugby league style tactic of distributing behind a runner is growing, it was vitally important for the British and Irish Lions in their series draw, but if you don’t fix the defender either with your run or prior to distributing it’s just a really easy way to lose a chunk of yardage.
This same thing happened throughout the game. When the Crusaders took away the threat of the short runner, the ball had to go wide and the attack was pretty limp as soon as that happened.
When the Crusaders did the same thing, they were focusing on going forwards rather than across the pitch. Barrett does some exquisite shepherding and that allows Crotty to ghost through for a significant gain.
Conclusion
This game will probably be remembered more for the red card than for anything else. But, this was a chance for the Lions to not be two time losing finalists in a row – interestingly, only the Sharks, Lions and Stormers have appeared in a final without winning it. This is unlikely to be a unique South African issue however, the Bulls are the only multiple time finalists, from any country, to boast a 100 percent winning record, winning in 2007, 2009 and 2010.
What will really disappoint the Lions is that their attack, which has been the envy of the league, or certainly at least their conference, ground to a halt against the Crusaders. Not only did the Crusaders dominate with turnover ball, they dominated from the breakdown and off the set piece. The Lions certainly weren’t useless, you don’t get 417 metres without having at least a decent game, but they didn’t take advantage of the massive possession advantage they had. In particular, their wing struggled to get involved, with the fourth best runner in Super Rugby, Courtnall Skosan, being kept to less than three metres per carry.
Whether the Lions’ winning window is shutting with the departure of Johan Ackermann is yet to be seen. But, it would certainly be sad if the Lions emerged from their golden era with no titles and just a string of runners up medals.