Fingertips: Peter O'Mahony
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Two sides who have shown flashes of their best without hitting the heights - Italy and Ireland - will begin the festivities on Saturday.
Starting with the hosts, Italy come into this weekend buoyed by their second-half performance against England at Twickenham.
Everything about the Italians looked sharper - their physicality, accuracy in defence and attack all appeared on-song. Jacques Brunel cited a change in Italy's approach as the main reason for their improvement, reducing the workload in their training schedule to feel "fresher" as the match wore on.
It paid off handsomely. Twickenham has rarely been colder but few were feeling the arctic conditions given the drama unfolding on the pitch infront of them. Could Italy final defeat England? At the home of English rugby, they have never been closer.
Perhaps it is no coincidence that Italy's best work in 2013 has come after substantial periods of rest. They burst out of the blocks against France showing the similar qualities that served them so well last Sunday - aggressive, direct and executing at a higher level that we see from the Azzurri all too rarely.
Their crop of talented players, spearheaded by Sergio Parisse but flanked by Alessandro Zanni, Martin Castrogiovanni, Luke McLean and Andrea Masi, have the potential to achieve so much more, although age is not on their side.
That is an issue that Ireland have been familiar with for some time. Brian O'Driscoll added to his legend by dragging himself back onto the turf against France last weekend. Concussion, a dead leg and a lacerated ear are not enough to stop the great one taking the field one more time in this championship to represent his country. If the rumours are to be believed - it might be his last.
Which would be incentive enough, if Ireland were not already kicking themselves. A Six Nations that promised so much after 47 minutes in Cardiff has gradually disintegrated. The manner of their defeat against Scotland - racking up 71 percent possession and 77 percent territory - was not far short of embarrassing.
When 13-3 up against France their luck appeared to be turning, before the outstanding Louis Picamoles struck. Pride is at stake in Rome, as are reputations.
Jamie Heaslip's captaincy has been a rocky road thus far after a promising beginning, with the number eight nowhere to be seen amongst the statistics for top performers. Rob Kearney is another struggling to find his best form. There is still time to impress Warren Gatland ahead of the Lions tour to Australia, but a good performance against Italy will boost their chances.
Which leaves Declan Kidney. The former Munster boss took Ireland to the summit with the Grand Slam title in 2009, but has struggled to match the height of that accomplishment since. Ireland's win record under Kidney since that success sits at 48 percent - with exceptional victories such as the win over Australia at the Rugby World Cup mingled together with the 60-0 humiliation against the All Blacks last year.
The question is whether Ireland will improve if Kidney stays on - whether he is right man to usher in the new group of stars that include Craig Gilroy, Paddy Jackson and Iain Henderson to take Ireland forward. The confusion over Ireland's fly-half situation in recent weeks signals that all is not right.
Over time, the number of odd selections, loyalty to older players and sets of disappointing results have left Kidney on the edge. The truth is that even a victory over Italy might not be enough to save his job.
Players to watch:
For Italy: Luke McLean was the sole try scorer at Twickenham last weekend, but his fellow winger Giovambattista Venditti was the man who stole the attention. Vendetti's power down the right saw him burst through tacklers and offer a threat that the Azzurri have not witnessed for some time out wide. If Vendetti, McLean and Masi are given enough possession then Italy will cause Ireland problems, because for the first time in a while, they have attacking threats.
For Ireland: A try scorer against Scotland, Craig Gilroy returns to the Irish starting XV after recovering from a groin strain. The Ulster winger has made a bright start to his Test career and will look to add to his current record of two tries in four matches in Rome. Ireland proved at Murrayfield that they have the ability to create opportunities, but their problem was execution. Given the right amount of time and space, Gilroy can take those chances. Attention will also be on Paddy Jackson on his third Test start, having originally been set to drop to the bench before Jonathan Sexton rolled his foot in training.
Head-to-head: Two flankers on opposite sides that have topped the stats throughout this Six Nations Championship. Alessandro Zanni has made more offloads than any other player in the tournament (9) and taken the second highest number of line-outs (15). Ireland's Sean O'Brien on the other hand has made more carries than any other player (55) - in the process playing himself back into the frame for Lions contention. Both offer different skills, but both will play a role in dictating the outcome of Saturday's clash in Rome.
Recent results:
2012: Ireland won 42-10, Dublin
2011: Ireland won 36-6, Dunedin
2011: Ireland won 13-11, Rome
2010: Ireland won 29-11, Dublin
2009: Ireland won 38-9, Rome
2008: Ireland won 16-11, Dublin
2007: Ireland won 23-20, Belfast
2007: Ireland won 51-24, Rome
2006: Ireland won 26-16, Dublin
2005: Ireland won 28-17, Rome
2004: Ireland won 19-3, Dublin
Prediction: A very close call. Italy were magnificent against France at home, but poor against Wales before showing some of their best form in the second-half at Twickenham to restore their confidence. Ireland on the other hand have let results against Scotland and France get away from them after being in control, meaning they are due a victory. Having never lost to Italy in the Six Nations, history is on their side, but do Ireland who are limping into Rome have enough in the tank after that brutal draw in Dublin last weekend? They should just sneak it. Ireland by 3.
Italy: 15 Andrea Masi, 14 Giovambattista Venditti, 13 Gonzalo Canale, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Luke McLean, 10 Luciano Orquera, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse, 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Joshua Furno, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini (c) 1 Andrea Lo Cicero.
Replacements: 16 Davide Giazzon, 17 Michele Rizzo, 18 Alberto de Marchi, 19 Antonio Pavanello, 20 Francesco Minto, 21 Paul Derbyshire, 22 Tobias Botes, 23 Tommaso Benvenuti.
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Craig Gilroy, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c) 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Donnacha Ryan, 4 Mike McCarthy, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 David Kilcoyne, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Devin Toner, 20 Iain Henderson, 21 Paul Marshall, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Luke Fitzgerald.
Date: Saturday, March 16
Kick-off: 15:30 (14:30 GMT)
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Television match official: Jim Yuille (Scotland)
by Ben Coles
@bencoles_
Comments
paddy91317 says...
Yeah i have said it before i agree with most of 3in4s comments and there funny... the simple fact is that munster dont have the quailty players to justify having more people in the squad over leinstet and ulster the proof is in the pudding ulster still in heiniken cup with reasonable ambitions munster are there but only out of luck and i would be willing to bet my house car kids wife a kidney and left testicle harliquins will destroy them... were as leinster had a patchy season through injuries and would still have been considered as favourites for the hcup if we didnt get clermont in our group... and 3in4s comments are extremely funny he is just saying what everyone not from munster is thinking
Posted 06:14 16th March 2013
crunchfit says...
@LIONSMAN
This isn't a Munster / Leinster issue. Earls is just the wrong choice.
Earls just isn't that effective. He isn't creative, all he can do is run fast and beat players 1 vs. 1. With the current defensive systems teams employ, it takes more than the ability to beat someone or the outside or step a single player. Fitzgerald may not have the same straight line speed or ability to maintain his speed after a step, but he has better passing. kicking and vision. Speed alone generally doesn't unlock a defence.
All that matters is the player's contribution to the team's effort. Maybe if Earls could learn to pass or track like Ashton used to he would gain effectiveness once again but he doesn't deserve a place on the team right now. The other 3 provinces all have wingers who would contribute more to the Irish squad.
As England demonstrate, it is all about the sum of the parts. Declan Kidney has never heard of this concept and his only concept of strategy is 1) give the ball to the forwards and run directly at the defensive line without decoys or any sort of deception 2) give the ball to ROG to kick (not an option now) or 3) occasionally pass the ball out wide and hope for anything. Earl's suits the last one because of his sheer speed. The only game plan he fits into in his current state is one of the upmost simplicity (assuming one actually exists).
If Ireland got a decent coach and updated their gameplan to this decade, I'd guess Earl's would be quite effective. He needs other players to free up space and other players. Ireland are awful at this.
The great thing about this particular game is it's win-win for any sensible Ireland fan. If we lose, it's a particularly big nail in Kidney's coffin. If we win, it's no big feat, even with the way Italy are playing. It doesn't really do anything to help Kidney's situation.
Posted 00:15 16th March 2013
Lucasrg says...
Too difficult to all but my optimism ease it so I go for Italy by 5!
Saying that I can see Ireland winning this with a proud performance. After all their starting XV is pretty good, at least on paper.
For me here the key player for Italy will be Gori as he really needs to step up and play as he did last year. Quick ball out and working around the fringes with Parisse or Zanni.
It will be also an emotional day for BOD, Orquera, Rizzo and probably Garcia as it could be their last game. Lo Cicero already announced his retire in tears yesterday.
I hope is going to be a good game anyway.
Forza Azzurri!
Posted 23:00 15th March 2013
melkdave says...
To tell the truth i quite fancy Ityaly ,to get their 1st victory over Ireland this weekend .
Posted 22:39 15th March 2013
LIONSMAN says...
3in4 the usual laughable comments always anti Munster.
Keep on supporting Leinster. Ireland doesn't need supporters like you!
Luke Fitz is a good player but hasn't produced his best form because of injuries etc.in over a year.Earls has actually played well except for him not finding BOD against Scotland and deserves his place with Zebo out.
Posted 18:16 15th March 2013
blametheref says...
What I'd like to see most coming out of this match is for Declan Kidney to end up coaching Italy and Jacques Brunel coaching Ireland...
Posted 13:39 15th March 2013
vince12 says...
Last game of the tournaments, in Rome against Ireland on St.Patrick's day, the new elected Pope...can only mean that its going to be a magnificent day for Rugby!! I wont make any predictions as Ireland is my second country..
Posted 11:50 15th March 2013
whitelinefever says...
mmMM have to agree with Chinstan Ireland by +15.
Reckon it will be a similar game to Ireland v Argentina last autumn.
Posted 11:47 15th March 2013
vince12 says...
Sorry i must say that the only English player that deserves to be in this list is Clancy the Ref that ultimately won the game for Cherry&Rose
Posted 11:44 15th March 2013
rugby_rockstar says...
Have just thrown in my point of view regards the other two matches this weekend, I have to say I;m glad this match is the first one and so the one that I';ll be most sober for. Its just got more potential to entertain. The Wales england game will be an advertvert for everything thats cynical and negative in the professional sport while the weather and the form of the two teams will make the Fra v Sco game a bit of a borefest.
Yep no two ways about it, Rome is the place to be.
Posted 11:07 15th March 2013
3in4 says...
On any other planet, Fitzgerald would be on that team ahead of the ginger love-child. Cabbage-Head has been sliding downhill faster than Pavorotti in a bobsleigh in this Six Nations so it would be quite appropriate for Italy to get the win tomorrow. Suffice to say, it will be a forgettable end to his reign of error.
Posted 10:29 15th March 2013
rugby_rockstar says...
BTW my prediction isIreland to win by 9 points
Posted 10:23 15th March 2013
rugby_rockstar says...
I'm kinda disapointed in the way italy give a damn about playing aginst England and france but can't be bothered vs Scotland and Wales. They need to showe a bit of national pride against Ireland and show the rugby world that they really mean business. otherwise people will continue to write them off as the token NH minnow who's there to make the IRB look like they are expanding the sport beyond the traditional rugby powers. Harsh? Well lets see you prove me wrong Italy.
Ireland's injury woes are beyond a joke, but the sad fact is that everone is sharpening their blades in gleefull anticipation of plunging them into Declan Kidney's back and a loss to Italy will bring down a shitstorm that could be made into a movie starring George Clooney and Mark Wallberg.
On the other hand its would be a pretty heroic win for ireland if they pull it off there are comparisions that you can make between Wasps and Ireland as far as youngsters thrown into the deep end goes. people go on about the way players have not been brought into the irish team earlier, but on paper they old guard had a damn good chance of racking up Grandslams (and doing well in the 2011 RWC) so the punt for more silverware was worth crack in my opinion. Funny how not one BBC pundit has even mentioned that angle. What a bunch of numpties.
Posted 10:19 15th March 2013
LondonWasp says...
as italy are paying at home, they may edge it. i remember a year or two ago ireland only won against italy because of a very late ogara drop goal...
Posted 09:18 15th March 2013
dodgyrog says...
If Ireland don't start strongly against the italians, I would see Italy winning this, also worried about our friend Wayne Barnes?
Posted 09:12 15th March 2013
Chinstan says...
I am fairly sure that Italy are not going to match the intensity they had against England as they don't seem able to string 2 games at that level together. I would not be surprised if Ireland break off the shackles and run in a few tries here. Ireland by +15
Posted 08:47 15th March 2013
carpelone says...
How to disagree with PR this time?
First half will be crucial, as Italy could lose the game in the early proceedings of this game, when the competence of the Irish team will cause them problems.
Then Italy, for the second time in this tournament, will have to play against a team gifted one day more of rest, balancing a superior freshness of the Italians. Scrums will be crucial and I do not really know who is going to win this.
Highly unpredictable game. Happy rugby to all.
Posted 08:18 15th March 2013