Evenin' all: Richie McCaw
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The big honour of hosting the opening fixture of 2012's Rugby Championship goes to Sydney as Australia face the All Blacks at ANZ Stadium on Saturday.
Argentina may disagree but it's perhaps fitting that this enlarged competition kicks-off with the Tri-Nations holders up against the RWC winners.
How the competition-sealing win in Brisbane on August 27 must feel like an age ago now though for a Wallaby team that is unlikely to retain its title.
Such a negative vibe following a 3-0 series victory over Wales might cause an eyebrow to raise but without James Horwill and a fit Quade Cooper, there just seems to be something missing from Robbie Deans' men as they look to claim what they haven't since 2001 - back-to-back triumphs. Former All Black Richard Loe has gone as far as to say that Australia will only be victorious in just one game out of six because of forward frailties.
Moving on before we do Deans' teamtalk for him.
Since that game at Suncorp Stadium, the All Blacks won 20-6 in the World Cup semi-final in Auckland thanks largely to a moment of magic by Israel Dagg. And after a brief break from the international scene, the try-scoring recipient from Dagg's inside ball, Ma'a Nonu, is back.
Nonu's return has been a touch overshadowed by the prolonged Test career of Sonny Bill Williams (fate maybe that he shouldn't go?) as an eye injury to Conrad Smith sees SBW carry on. Those who like their statistics - and if you are Australian - may be encouraged by Smith's 90 per cent win record in international rugby for he is the glue for their backline.
New Zealand do go into the game on a run of ten consecutive wins and it is worth reminding readers that despite losing the Tri-Nations title last year, Bledisloe Cup bragging rights have remained in their corner. Their largely settled line-up oozes experience and with a nice dash of youth in scrum-half Aaron Smith, they have got a great deal of caps (squad total of 785) in their cabinet. Factor in that the Wallabies last won a Bledisloe Cup series against New Zealand 2-0 way back in 2001 and that none of the current Wallabies have featured in a winning series against the All Blacks, then the odds on a change of the guard look long.
Australia could fall short in the front-row and it continues to perplex why Stephen Moore is not starting while their back-row has two good runners in Scott Higginbotham and Dave Dennis, but whether they have the international nous and dog of their rivals is going to be the question. New Zealand meanwhile seem to have an ideal balance of grunt and cutting edge while their bench options make it only one result for me as the ABs strut to Auckland.
Ones to watch:
For Australia: Digby Ioane has not crossed the whitewash in his past eight Tests, with his last try coming against Italy at last year's Rugby World Cup in New Zealand. That does not make pretty reading for the finisher, who has been on a similar drought for the Reds in Super Rugby. Some say that he gets over the whitewash a lot more when Quade Cooper is playing at fly-half but once again there is no sign of the Wallaby maestro so it is up to others to create - and for him to look for work against the All Blacks this weekend. One cannot underplay how key the Scott Higginbotham/Will Genia axis will be at ANZ Stadium.
For New Zealand: Perhaps the most surprising call made by Steve Hansen was to leave Brodie Retallick out of his starting side in favour of lock Luke Romano. Maybe the workrate of the former over recent weeks was taken into account or maybe I am doing a disservice to Romano - who did perform well during June - but it did come as something as a shock to see the Crusader line up alongside Sam Whitelock. His outing will be interesting to keep an eye on as he gets through a lot of ball carrying in a Brad Thorn-like approach to rugby union. Elsewhere, the international encore of Sonny Bill Williams in tandem with Ma'a Nonu will be great to watch as they go up against two of the strongest centre defenders around.
Head-to-head: Arguably the two best full-backs in world rugby meet at ANZ Stadium and I for one cannot wait to see the duo try their hand at the back. Kurtley Beale is more likely than Israel Dagg to wander up into the first line and help out in the playmaking area, but for the side wearing black, Dagg's ability to glide over the turf always gets supporters juices flowing. When these two teams last met - in the Rugby World Cup semi-final at Eden Park - it was Dagg's classy assist for Ma'a Nonu that led to them holding an unassailable 14-6 advantage at the half-time break so Australia will be wary of the man (pictured). Another area that cannot be left unwatched is undoubtedly the back-row battle. We have two quality opensides, number eights and strong sixes who could shape where this result ends up.
Recent results:
2011: New Zealand won 20-6 in Auckland
2011: Australia won 25-20 in Brisbane
2011: New Zealand won 30-14 in Auckland
2010: Australia won 26-24 in Hong Kong
2010: New Zealand won 23-22 in Sydney
2010: New Zealand won 20-10 in Christchurch
2010: New Zealand won 49-28 in Melbourne
2009: New Zealand won 32-19 in Tokyo
2009: New Zealand won 33-6 in Wellington
2009: New Zealand won 19-18 in Sydney
Prediction: Seven of the last ten games in Australia have seen five-point winning margins or less but I just feel that New Zealand possess a little too much this time. I very much like the look of their backs while Liam Messam's inclusion at flank is deserved. All Blacks by eight!
The teams:
Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Will Genia, 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 David Pocock (capt), 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Radike Samo, 20 Michael Hooper, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Drew Mitchell.
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Ma'a Nonu, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (capt), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Ben Smith.
Date: Saturday, August 18
Kick-off: 20:05 (11:05 BST, 10:05 GMT)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Referee: Alain Rolland (IRFU)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (WRU), Lourens Van Der Merwe (SARU)
TMO: Matt Goddard (ARU)
By Adam Kyriacou
@PlanetRugbyAK
Comments
C_Mac says...
I had to come back to this article to check the predicted margin - turns out it was bang on the money. Although not one of the great classic matches between these two rugby giants it was still interesting to watch. The All Blacks did ask more questions and in this game it did appear as though the home side were outthunk and out coached. But to use the old cliche "a week is a lifetime in sports" can the Wallabies do one of their special turnarounds next week.
Posted 16:03 19th August 2012
three6three6 says...
I would have to agree with melkdave when he says that there is unlikely to be an Australian Coach who would be able to produce the results that R. Deans has produced with the Wallabies.
Despite the very real handicap that R. Deans has - being a New Zealander - there is no doubt that R. Deans talent spotting skills have lead to the emergence of the latest generation of Wallaby stars.
That he has not been able to beat the All Blacks consistently during his tenure as Head Coach should not be a criticism against his coaching ability. The Wallabies have often been competitive in such matches... and indeed some surprising results have been acheived given the apparent lack of a deep and widespread rugby playing culture in Australia.
Posted 10:00 18th August 2012
Wolfgang says...
Go da wallabies... Please tackle tackle tackle...you will needs lots of it tonight,they(all blacks)maybe the best attacking team in da world atm but if u keep defending like the wales test and keep pressure them den um sure they will crumble...lol...go forth GOLD n fight to da death!!...chiiihuuuuu
Posted 09:02 18th August 2012
tha_mai says...
trinats - Mortlock - he'd still be younger than Radike Samo (36) wouldn't he? Wonder if Samo can even remember - all those years ago - 18 of them in fact, when he was playing for Fiji Under 19s. Nothing like developing young talent in Australia!
Posted 03:45 18th August 2012
melkdave says...
@Pinky
R.Deans has already said QC isnt match fit ,and thats why B.Barnes is starting.Or do you want to risk him missing the entire RC by potentialy getting injured again??.As to why theres 8 Tahs in the starting 15 ,well i guess its because he knows just what they can do ,having been part of the national set up for the last few years.Also N.Sharpe maybe old and on the verge of retiring from international rugby,but didnt he jusy have a very good S15 season personnally,same as D.Pocock.Force bad season those 2 players good if i remember it right,Also just who would you bring in to replace all these bad Tahs players,who ill remind you helped take Australia to a RWC semi final ,and won the very last Tri-Nations.Coaches who are constantly being cruified for no good reason tend to go with players they know can do a job ,rather than experiment ,that is one drawback ,you and certain posters plus your media have created ,as it seems no matter how good the results R.Deans achives with a limited base of quality players will never be good enough .Because he happens to be a Kiwi.One thing i do know IF R,Deans leaves when his contract ends ,you will be crying about just how good the wallabies where under Deans ,as i dought JW would take the job ,because of the way RD has been lanbasted at every turn.I repeat what i said earlier imho no oz coach is capable of getting any better results with the players avaiable,and most probably they would be worse.
Posted 02:01 18th August 2012
kitch says...
tri nats
"if au get out to an early lead then its tri nations champs 4".. judging by the amount of times in recent past where they have gone out to an early lead, then its ABs trinations champs #11!!... yes 11!!
for me tho its 50/50 ..wallabies have some great new loosies and their back 3 are world class esp beale.. not to mention genia!.. together with home town advantage, the AB 1st test blues, key ABs lacking form, and the absense of smith this will be tight
Posted 23:02 17th August 2012
2EyedKiwi says...
So when is a side "young" or "old"? Average age of the starting line ups:
Oz - 26yrs
AB's- 27.4 yrs
Hardly diapers versus zimmer frames....
World Champs by 22.
Posted 20:47 17th August 2012
FISH says...
mccaw is REALLY shady, and a cheat, then again, so is pocock and schalk burger.....well we all know about him
Posted 19:20 17th August 2012
7ton says...
carpelone
Ha ha :) And no naughtier than most of the other no. 7's and you well know it. Maybe just a lot quicker but as you indicate he may well start to slow down now but no worries there are plenty of youngsters to replace him and the accusations will no doubt continue.
Good that we agree about the beer
enjoy!
Posted 16:14 17th August 2012
pinky says...
......and why Polota Nau is starting ahead of Moore is beyond me....given that Moore is arugably one of our best and most consistant fowards.....
Posted 15:38 17th August 2012
pinky says...
@melkdave.......is that why Deans has picked x 8 Waratahs in the run on 15 after they propped up the Super 15 Table??? Sharpe has been a great servant but is too old and Timani whilst abrasive, big and strong is definately not well drilled enough and needs to start playing like a tight forward. Barnes is also too small and Cooper should be at 10......Deans......a Kiwi plant me thinks....
Posted 15:24 17th August 2012
Trader2 says...
After tomorrow stats will say Wannabies have won 7 from the last 30.
Posted 15:18 17th August 2012
carpelone says...
7ton
The Kiwi # 7 is a naughty boy. I understand that you like him, but he is just like those guys who make a braai at the border of your property, they eat the meat and you breathe the smoke. Highly annoying. But luckily there are only few games left in his tank, hopefully we will forget him soon.
Enjoy the beer too, I do hope that we all have two excellent and fair games. Cheers
Posted 14:47 17th August 2012
kiwieire02 says...
I am picking ABs by 5 cos I'm a Kiwi but I really think the team that keeps their discipline more and who adapts to Alain Rolland's reffing fastest will win the game. It should be a cracker!
Posted 14:14 17th August 2012
melkdave says...
@Trinits2
I hate to burst your bubble but for one thing im english not a new zealander.Second i havent ruled out an wallaby win this weekend ,just that i think its improbable.Third your are obviously living in dreamland if you think most of the wallaby squad would make it into the ABs ,,and im backed on this by most posters it seems.Fourth the wallaby side isnt that young anymore when compard to England ,Wales or Scotland and Argentina,and i suspect more teams will blood youngsters in the next few years including NZ ,SA and France, so the wallabies will not be the youngest but just average in age then.Also as ive said i just dont understand the R.Deans bashing,maybe because im not an ozzie ,but there is no australian coach imho who could do better than R.Deans ,and i believe that to be true .I maybe wrong but i dont think so McKenzie isnt upto it imo ,not yet anywauy if ever.
Posted 13:47 17th August 2012
makemehappy says...
@kelfoon - think you must have been watching a different semi to everyone else if you thought they were demolished in the scrum!
Posted 13:15 17th August 2012
tuffnut says...
@Trinats - good team. I'd move Higginbotham to 6 and put Reid at 8. W Alberts at 4, Carter at 10, O'Conner and Beale on the wings, Nonu 12, & C Smith at 13.... if he's back from injury, and Dagg at fullback.
Very close and most looking forward to the battle of the centres. Go ABs!
Posted 12:33 17th August 2012
Trinats2 says...
melkdave:
Not another arrogant kiwi !!! tall poppy comes to mind, deja vu (back to last year) can't wait till Sunday !!!.
The only "upset" will be if NZ win and beat the current Tri nations champions.
The only Kiwi to get a look-in in the current (not including injured players) Wallaby squad is Nonu and maybe Woodcock and of course Craig Joubert !!!.
As an Aussie I watch this very young side lead teams only for Deans to ring the changes then they seem to fall apart. He brings them on too late or wrong combinations, he was a mistake by the ARU and we can see why NZ didn't want him. I don't think he has the respect from the players. Bring on the Link next year !!! If not sooner.
Posted 12:18 17th August 2012
rugby_phile says...
For crying out loud what is all this c**p about the ABs being too old. Has anybody watched the talent that came through in NZ (and SA as well) in this year S15? Just because the ABs have enough depth to bring them on in a timely manner, unlike the Okkers who rush them in still in nappies so they can get a half decent team on the park. Lambs to the slaughter if you ask me. Its great we can give youngsters like Savea, Perenara, Kerr Barlow, Retallick, Andrew Taylor, Barret, Cane just to name a few a chance to develop. Dream on guys. And by the way I didn't hear anybody last year saying Brad Thorn was too old, and how old was he?
Posted 12:15 17th August 2012
sports_fan_123 says...
You can check out the reactions at
http://www.vpsportscast.com/video-1175-rugby-championship-australia-v-new-zealand-preview
Posted 12:13 17th August 2012