Show time: ABs host the Pumas
Related links
Teams
Also see
The All Blacks will fancy their chances of cementing their place atop the Rugby Championship standings when they host Argentina at Wellington's Westpac Stadium on Saturday.
Lets face it, New Zealand beating the Pumas this weekend is about as sure a thing as a bet on Frankel.
The two sides have met 14 times since 1985 and the All Blacks have won 13 matches and drawn one. On paper, and after New Zealand's two commanding wins over Australia in its first two matches, this Test should be one-sided.
Whilst Argentina celebrated a historic draw against the bumbling Boks, the fact remains that their next opponents are in a league of their own at the moment and - worryingly for Pumas fans - are still yet to hit top gear.
Granted, the South Americans' last outing against the All Blacks (in the RWC quarter-finals) was a lot closer than many expected with the final scoreline certainly not a true reflection of how the match unfolded. In fact, Argentina threatened a monumental shock before they were finally subdued 33-10 thanks to a late Kieran Read try with 13 minutes left to make the game safe.
They'll attempt to rattle the world champions once again but won't pose a huge threat, as the travel-weary tourists have been handed no favours by a schedule that has turned a difficult task into a virtual mission impossible.
Whilst the team's excitement levels are at an all-time high since finishing third at the 2007 World Cup, it's only a matter of time when the demanding schedule will take its toll on a squad coming off two extremely physical matches against South Africa.
In the opening three weeks of the competition, the furthest New Zealand have had to travel was to Sydney and back. Argentina, meanwhile have flown to Cape Town, back to Mendoza, and now to Wellington - that's a heck of a lot more packets of peanuts consumed in the air than their Kiwi rivals.
Travel and airline snacks aside, I feel the tournament newcomers are also yet to face a stern examination. In Cape Town, it looked like Argentina were simply aiming to compete rather than win. In Mendoza, the Pumas reinforced the threat they pose at home - and their value to the competition - but could only manage a draw against a Springbok side that were made to look like rank amateurs at times.
That draw two weeks ago will also put the unbeaten All Blacks on guard against complacency. They will be wary - one hopes - of more brutal and accurate play from their visitors on attack and defence.
New Zealand will also have to overcome the Pumas' traditional strength up front, where their powerful props Rodrigo Roncero and Juan Figallo have been prominent and will need to be well contained.
Other than that, don't expect too many surprises from Argentina as the men in blue and white hoops resort to what's familiar against the All Blacks. But we still expect the visitors to give it a good crack... but a boilover is highly unlikely.
Ones to watch:
For New Zealand: The return of veteran prop Tony Woodcock to the forward pack strengthens the All Blacks for the inevitable scrum confrontation and Conrad Smith's return at center is likely to add order to a New Zealand backline which has been scratchy in the last two outings. The late loss of fly-half Dan Carter to a calf muscle injury might unsettle the All Blacks, though his understudy Aaron Cruden was in excellent form in the Chiefs' Super Rugby-winning campaign and all eyes will be on the young playmaker who gets another rare chance to show off his skills in the black jersey.
For Argentina: Adding significant steel to the side is loose forward Juan Manuel Leguizamon, who makes a welcome return after suffering a stomach injury. The robust flank will add some grunt to a loose trio that suddenly looks very intimidating following Argentina's outstanding work at the breakdown against SA a fortnight ago.
Head to head: Perhaps significantly, there are two main areas where Argentina could match New Zealand - the line-outs and at scrum time. The Pumas have two strong locks in Patricio Albacete (48 Test caps) and Manuel Carizza (25 caps) - the dynamic duo have plenty of experience between them and will provide a greater physical challenge than Australia. By contrast the All Blacks locking pair of Brodie Retallick and Luke Romano start together for the first time and are the least experienced - with eight combined caps - since Ali Williams and Keith Robinson packed down against Wales in Cardiff 10 years ago. With New Zealand's stock in the second-row department looking thin, Retallick and Romano have a chance to build a powerful partnership on the world stage.
Previous results:
2011: New Zealand won 33-10 in Auckland (RWC)
2006: New Zealand won 25-19 in Buenos Aires
2004: New Zealand won 41-7 in Hamilton
2001: New Zealand won 24-20 in Buenos Aires
2001: New Zealand won 67-19 in Christchurch
1997: New Zealand won 62-10 in Hamilton
1997: New Zealand won 93-8 in Wellington
1991: New Zealand won 36-6 in Buenos Aires
1991: New Zealand won 28-14 in Buenos Aires
1989: New Zealand won 49-12 in Wellington
1989: New Zealand won 60 -9 in Dunedin
Prediction: The Pumas will be desperate to follow up a confidence-boosting draw with a win, however ugly, against top-flight opposition. Sadly for them though, it ain't gonna happen against the world champions in their own backyard. All Blacks by 20-plus!
The teams:
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Victor Vito, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Ben Smith.
Argentina: 15 Martin Rodriguez, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Juan Martin Hernandez, 9 Nicolas Vergallo, 8 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (c), 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Julio Farias Cabello, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Marcos Ayerza, 18 Juan Pablo Orlandi, 19 Leonardo Senatore, 20 Tomás Leonardi, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino.
Date: Saturday, September 8
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Kick-off: 19:35 (04:35 Arg time; 07:35 GMT)
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant referees: George Clancy (Ireland), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Comments
makemehappy says...
@Ferdie - sadly I don't have much access to NZ weather information in Wales LOL!
Posted 10:37 08th September 2012
rugbylover says...
@ freddo
I sympathize - but just follow a simple rule - ignore the prat.
Posted 08:13 08th September 2012
Rosco1971 says...
The argues will give a good account and I believe it will be a tight affair. The weather forecast of gale force winds will not allow for flowing rugby and be a kickers/catchers nightmare. This will assist arg for sure and hurt NZ's high tempo game as will probably keep the game among the fatties a bit more. Be surprised if this was a classic due to the shite weather. The AB's will be conscious that they win this and next week and the championship is as good as tied up. I expect a tough game with NZ to show that they can foot it all across the park. First 25 minutes will dictate. If NZ score early and get a lead, game over. 15-20 point win. If he weather plays its part and it is close at half time I expect a battle royale with NZ edging by 8.
So pleased for Argie rugby to get this chance this year and can only benefit SH rugby as a whole.
Posted 04:15 08th September 2012
bigb6969 says...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7638643/Winds-forecast-to-hit-140kmh
Posted 01:21 08th September 2012
Ferdie says...
UBA05 - I don't know about fatigue for the Pumas, but in the last 3 weeks they have traveled Arg-SA and return, played two tests, and arrived nz sunday 2nd after 34 hours travel, unsure if this includes inside nz as that would add another 2hrs getting to wellington.
one thing this shows is that any ideas of Arg teams in Super rugby could never work. Limited flights, depending on day of week can take a lot longer with enforced stopovers.
re locks - eaton (17 tests) and hoeta (3 tests last year) both in top form through Super and itm, add chiefs captain clarke (no test exp) i don't think 'thin' is right, just lacking enough game time.
Posted 23:22 07th September 2012
bigb6969 says...
It is very wet here in Wellington, and the wind is howling. This could really put a dent in any attacking rugby. It is very windy even for Wellington.
I am going to the test and hoping for an AB blow out but I think this weather is going to put pay to that. Also I am the in the cheap seats so I will be wet and freezing...
ABs by 15
Posted 23:15 07th September 2012
KnockOnKing says...
I agree that the start of the game is crucial - a few points on the board for the
Pumas early on and their belief might hold up better under a continuous AB
all out assault.
Posted 22:39 07th September 2012
PAMPA says...
rugby_rockstar
do not quite understand what you say, but if the Pumas win -difficult thing- is due to the referee ..??..
Posted 20:33 07th September 2012
rugby_rockstar says...
Hmmm Romain Poite, that'll be interesting. If I was going to pick a ref for Argentina then it would be a French or English ref.
I can't see the pumas (or anyone at the moment) winning in NZ but it'll be close in argentina next week if Poite gets to ref in Arg.
tomorrow we'll see alot of bravery but not much success. argentina have to keep their discipline. At the same time Poite just has to ref it straight down the middle. if the pumas cheat like they did in SA then ping 'em. please don't walk onto the pitch with a pre-conceived notion and blow Argentina off the park. Going on the Arg v SA draw, I'm looking forward to a mouth watering battle at the break down. Don't let Ritchie ref the game if the pumas are giving as good as they get at ruck time.
This is a match that could be a purist classic or a boring waste of time thats beyond doubt after 10 to 15 minutes and the ref is the guy who'll go a long way to deciding its fate. just be fair, its blue and white vs black, don't come onto the pitch with a favourite to win.
Posted 15:24 07th September 2012
Carpelone says...
To be honest, the NZ's lock department includes good prospects, but they are still a bit far from NZ's Test Rugby level. The same applies to the Boks.
The other positions which are not optimised so far are 6, 9 and 11.
12 could be an area of concern if Nonu is in the descending curve (as it seems to be the case). All the other positions are secured and world class. We may argue/hope that wheels could be falling off from the 7 in black, similarly to what is happening to Burger and Smith.
NZ's backline is always a source of concern......for the opponents, especially if they are allowed to run on the blocks provided by teammates in offside.
I feel however that this squad should have a major overhaul come RWC 15.
For tomorrow, NZ by 15, even though Argentina could mess up this game for then similarly to what Ireland did in their 2nd test.
Posted 15:20 07th September 2012
Rude_80 says...
I spoke with someone in Pumas camp, and they believe they can win and they are pumped and nervous. Mentally are really strong. I can't say they will win because I do not have the crystal ball and statistics says it all, but I do not think it will be a 20 points game. Whoever wins it will be for no more than 10 points.
Posted 14:51 07th September 2012
georgesmith says...
Pumas to shake the rugby world. They got a strong and competitive 22. By 8 points!
Posted 14:22 07th September 2012
Ferdie says...
makemehappy - the stats may suggest 20. the rugby fanzone has been cancelled before the game was to be noon-6pm but with 140km/h wind gusts forecast they've had to call it off
some shelter inside the stadium of course but a lot of rain, swirling winds i'm picking a low scoring game. up and unders may not be the best tactic.
Posted 13:57 07th September 2012
UBA05 says...
I don't know why the editor brought up the fatigue factor. Although i'm not fully aware of their travel shedule, I would assume the pumas packed their bags for Nz straight after the bok match, had a light week and rest the week before this, then got into the heavy physical stuff this week. Though I stand to be corrected.
The final scoreline in my opinion depends on the game that will be played. If its a give the ball some air, attacking flair match, then Nz will easily run away with it. But I still feel 20 plus is a bit too much PR.
If the pumas can manage to suck the Abs into a forward-oriented trench warfare match. They will lose the the close contest by a 'not-so-large' margin as they are bound to get penalized repeatedly at the breakdown as their discipline there is not so great.
If the pumas can steal away a losing bonus point, i'll be overjoyed. If they can draw or better yet win it, i'll be over the the moon, the sun, saturn, neptune and whatever else is out there
Posted 13:36 07th September 2012
makemehappy says...
20 points plus - the stats certainly point to that!
Posted 13:11 07th September 2012
melkdave says...
Yes it will be a New Zealand victory,its the ABs at home for gods sake,and i feel the team is slightly better overall than it was last year aswell.I do however feel it wil be a tight game ,much as the QF last year,with NZ only pulling away when the pumas tire Personnally i think a 10-15 point victory ,if that contains a 4 try bonus point ,is debateable imo,as Argentina look like they are defending alot better this year imo.
Posted 13:03 07th September 2012
benski says...
@jonesy mate why don't you just go to a different forum. Your purile posts are just boring now.
Posted 13:01 07th September 2012
atg77 says...
I think New Zealand will want to atone for their poor performance against the same opposition in the WC last year. That, combined with Argeninia's recent draw will mean they are on high alert. NZ will however still consider South Africa a threat for the RC, so will look to spead pretty much everything in search of the four try bonus point. They should do that at a canter against travel weary opposition and win by at least 25 points.
Posted 12:54 07th September 2012
ArmchairGeneral says...
Jonsey2: drama queen. Also if you're arguing ABs have depth at lock make the case. Comparing to other teams and previous AB teams.
Posted 12:45 07th September 2012
JayStarr says...
I don't agree with PR's assessment. And this is why:
I don't think GH could've changed the Argentine game plan or style of play too much in the time he has been with them, but what his presence and words of wisdom will do is give the Argentines the belief that they can beat the All Blacks - and that is often the biggest hurdle for any team facing them. With the All Blacks going into unfamiliar territory with (understandable) over-confidence, I think this game is shaping up to get interesting. We all know Argentina lives for the big moments - and other than the WC it doesn't get bigger than this. This is a team who out-Franced France (twice) in their own back yard at the 2007 World Cup and beat them again on their recent tour (with an under-strength side)... and we all know about NZ's inexplicable difficulties with France. The self-belief GH will give Argentina (and the doubt his presence will sow in his former team's minds), on top of the self-belief the Argentines got in the game against the Boks, along with the fine form they have shown on defense and at the breakdowns, I would not be surprised if Argentina comes close to winning.
On the other hand, I agree 100% with @ABlack and @jonesy2. I don't know who wrote this article, but the fact that he/she can suggest that the All Blacks' backline "has been a bit scratchy in the last two outings" and that NZ's "stock in the second-row department (is) looking thin" (with Retallick, Romano and Whitelock playing) is absolutely absurd. I almost spat my tea out. I mean really - on a scale of 1 to PdV, this is PdV. This person should be fired before they cause you any further embarrassment...
Posted 12:30 07th September 2012