Second Test: Can Ireland trouble the All Blacks?
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Ireland have the proverbial mountain to climb when they face New Zealand in Christchurch in the second Test of the three-match series on Saturday.
New Zealand showed in last week's 42-10 rout that they are not suffering from a World Cup hangover and are determined to build on their triumph at last year's global showpiece.
Although the weight of expectation has been lifted with that win, the All Blacks will be expected to put in another polished performance as this will be the first time since August 2010 that a Test is played in Christchurch after an earthquake devastated the city.
New Zealand didn't just dominate the Auckland Test on the scoreboard as several of Ireland's best players were made to look average in their battles with their direct opponents.
Take Sean O'Brien v Richie McCaw, Jonny Sexton v Dan Carter and Rob Kearney v Israel Dagg as examples. The three Irish stalwarts were at the forefront of Leinster's successful Heineken Cup campaign and were hailed as amongst the best players in their respective positions by many supporters from the Emerald Isle.
However, they - like the rest of their team-mates - came off second best (by some distance) when they went head-to-head with their All Blacks counterparts and will have to play out of their skins if they want to restore some pride.
An interesting statistic is that of All Blacks outside centre Conrad Smith, who by winning 50 of his 56 Test matches now has the highest winning percentage of any player in the world with more than 50 Test wins (89.3 percent).
Don't expect much to change when these sides clash at the weekend. Under Graham Henry's guidance, New Zealand gained a reputation for being ruthless once they have the upperhand over their opponents and with Steve Hansen now in charge that philosophy hasn't changed.
"Once again, for us it's about our preparation, getting clarity early in the week and building in intensity so we can have a performance we can all be proud of on Saturday," Hansen revealed.
"We (the coaches) are expecting further improvements in our game due to the extra training and preparation time we have had together, along with having a game under our belt.
"We are also expecting Ireland to improve, as they are a nation with a 'never-say-die' attitude so what we did last time won't be good enough."
Although that last comment is true, Ireland will be approaching this clash with great trepidation. Beating the All Blacks in New Zealand is one of the greatest achievements in the game for any country and Ireland are yet to do that in 107 years of trying.
Captain Brian O'Driscoll believes that beating the world champions would rate as the highest accolade after a World Cup win, so the men in green will not be lacking motivation to achieve that goal.
O'Driscoll is joined in Ireland's midfield by Leinster team-mate Gordon D'Arcy for the 48th time in a Test which extends their world record for a centre partnership while the encounter is also a momentous occasion for Jamie Heaslip, who will make his 50th Test appearance.
A less glamorous addition to the starting line-up is loosehead prop Mike Ross whose return should improve Ireland's efforts in the scrums.
If they want to stand any chance of claiming a win Ireland will have to match their host in all facets of play as the home side seldom allow opponents to play to their strengths, especially when they are playing in front of a New Zealand crowd.
If, as is expected, it's going to be a cold and wet match then we won't be blessed with the free-running spectacle which we saw last week but regardless of the conditions this match will provide plenty of drama and entertainment.
Players to watch:
For New Zealand: There are so many attacking threats in this All Blacks side but after his hat-trick of tries on debut last week, all eyes will be on Julian Savea. Power, pace and skill, Savea has it all and although it's highly unlikely, All Blacks supporters will be wondering if he can match last week's try-scoring heroics in this Test. With creative players like Carter, Dagg, Sonny Bill Williams and Conrad Smith in the same line-up don't be surprised if he makes another big impact on Saturday.
For Ireland: Ireland full-back Rob Kearney might have played second fiddle to Israel Dagg last week but he remains a class act. Fearless under the high ball, solid in the tackle and devastating on attack, Kearney does everything that's expected of an international number 15 and more. He has the ability to tear any defence to shreds and this part of his game is important in giving his side attacking momentum.
Head-to-head: Ireland's front-row has been strengthened with the inclusion of Mike Ross and it should be riveting viewing when his combination with Cian Healey and Rory Best go up against New-Zealand's front three of Tony Woodcock, Andrew Hore and Owen Franks in the scrums. No front-ranker enjoys being pushed around at the set-piece and we all know the paradox about when an irresistible force meets an immovable object...well, something's got to give!
Previous results:
2012: Ireland lost 42-10 in Auckland
2010: Ireland lost 38-18 at Aviva Stadium
2010: Ireland lost 66-28 in New Plymouth
2008: Ireland lost 3-22 at Croke Park
2008: Ireland lost 21-11 in Wellington
2006: Ireland lost 27-17 in Auckland
2006: Ireland lost 24-23 in Hamilton
2005: Ireland lost 7-45 at Lansdowne Road
2002: Ireland lost 40-8 in Auckland
2002: Ireland lost 15-6 in Dunedin
2001: Ireland lost 29-40 at Lansdowne Road
Prediction: Everybody knows what's going to happen in this match. Although Ireland are expected to be more competitive, and rain is always a great leveller, they will not have enough ammunition to take down the mighty All Blacks. New Zealand by 15 points!
The teams:
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Zac Guildford, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Ali Williams, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Ben Smith.
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (c), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip. 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Kevin McLaughlin, 5 Donnacha Ryan, 4 Dan Tuohy, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Declan Fitzpatrick, 18 Donncha O'Callaghan, 19 Peter O'Mahony, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Ronan O'Gara, 22 Simon Zebo.
Date: Saturday, June 16
Kick-off: 19:35 (08:35 BST, 07:35 GMT)
Venue: AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Weather:A few showers. Cold southwesterlies. Min -2°C, Max 6°C
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Pascal Gauzere (France)
Television match official: Matt Goddard (Australia)
by David Skippers
Comments
Carpelone says...
blametheref
That was RWC rugby, whose intricacies and pressure do not suit New Zealand's style. The ABs were without Dan Carter, who represents 30% of their potential imo.
You can bet your house that the ABs will put other 20 points past you.
Ablack
McCaw "was" the best. From a Saffa's point of view, it was quite entertaining and refreshing to see him struggling after McFadden last week end.
Posted 07:35 16th June 2012
nyagzie says...
AB by 20
Posted 05:37 16th June 2012
porridge_time says...
The weather is the only thing that ca even things out for Ireland. They were utterly outclassed last weekend, yet the AB's feel their is room for improvement. That in itself leads you to think Ireland arenin for a tough night, just can't see having anything in their tank that will have them overturn New Zealand.
Posted 04:37 16th June 2012
powerplay says...
Could this be the test that Ireland win? Based on the last game, i dont think so, but who knows, .....
Posted 02:40 16th June 2012
ABlack says...
McCaw is the greatest ever.And Im not from Canterbury
Posted 01:48 16th June 2012
tha_mai says...
hayj05: "McCaw has been a part of 92 wins in 104 tests (88.46%)"
had to check up on George Gregan, thought he's be close, and yes he played in 93 winning sides, but played more tests (139) to get there (67.62% win rate) however that figure of 139 will be hard to beat - and it won't be McCaw, don't think he can be a round for 35 more test matches. Can anyone? O'Driscoll and O'Gara both on 124.
Another Australian great, though one who gets less publicity/credit, Nathan Sharpe steps out for his 104th test tonight. While his career overlapped Gregan's partially, Australia's win rates have taken a dive by comparison and he's at 60.67% a win/loss rate of 62/40 1 draw. If only NZ would go away! 18 of his 40 career losses against the men in Black, for Gregan it's 15.
Posted 01:30 16th June 2012
blametheref says...
Norm fair play to you, they are good odds, I hope you collect...There's no reason why Ireland can't beat NZ, just look at the scoreline with France in the WC final and they really should have won...
Posted 00:10 16th June 2012
KiwiLad says...
ABs 27 Ireland 12, if its wet.
ABs 46 Ireland 9 in the dry.
Posted 23:39 15th June 2012
zoom23 says...
I don't know how anybody would think that Ireland could possibly win tomorrow..it's nonsensical rubbish. We will be humped again. No doubt about it. ABs by 30+ points imo...if we are lucky. And i'm Irish !!!
Posted 21:47 15th June 2012
brands says...
@ Jmehrtens says...
"Nice stat on Conrad S. but not a fair comparison since he is an all black and they hardly ever play against stronger opposition"
What are you on? we consistantly play the top teams every year! trinations and european tours!
I do suppose you have a point though, they are hardly considrered stronger oposition!
Posted 21:38 15th June 2012
three6three6 says...
@GCP_JONES
I do not think any victory against Ireland could ever be described as being hollow! This might be so, against any of the fringe top 10 rugby playing nations BUT not against Ireland!
@hayj05
Thank you for the statistics.... It is hard to disagree with your quick analysis on McCaw's record playing "as part of the team" being more impressive - it is clear from these statistics that McCaw is very influential when he is playing in the match day 15. On the few occasions that he has been injured, his influence has certainly missed. How influential can a captain be? The answer is very influential - especially in the instance of Richie McCaw and Martin Johnson (another great competitor with a great win / loss record)
Posted 16:19 15th June 2012
SACanuck says...
Sorry Ireland and all Irish supporters but you are in serious trouble. The AB's are on fire. AB's by 20
Posted 15:16 15th June 2012
Norm says...
FEck it blametheref
After being inspired by you and the Spain game the other night I putting a tenner on us to do it! C'mon Ireland!
Posted 14:34 15th June 2012
Euskadi says...
Well said Carpelone, and really interesting win stats. If/when McCaw reaches 100 test wins that will indeed be a magical milestone, perhaps only ever matched in that club by another All Black - due as has been said by that remarkable winning percentage all the more impressive considering the majority of those matches are vs top three ranked sides. Wow that would be very impressive indeed. I actually think that the number of players achieving the 100 test club will slowly wain, they are maxing out on the number of tests that can be played in a season...i.e. 15 tests is a huge workload so it would take 7 years of playing every test to get near the 100 test club and in reality probably closer to 10 years/seasons. With the increased physicality and conveyer belt production line of test caliber players I think the new mark will be around 50. Heres hoping that McCaw reaches the 100 test wins club, I will certainly be tracking that progress.
Back to the game, I thought last weeks match would be closer but the All Blacks were too fast, skillful, creative and efficient for the Irish and that won't be changing this week whatever the weather. If Ireland were to somehow cause an upset it will be because of intercept(s), borderline calls and a huge amount of luck plus the ABs will have to play their lousiest game ever, with this experience I cant see the last thing happening. The weather will slow things down and even it out plus the Irish will come out better prepared and looking to restore pride. The All Blacks to try a few different tactics and moves in preparation for the 4N but in all I think the All Blacks will have about 20 points on the Irish in Chch. Good luck to both
Posted 14:29 15th June 2012
froggy73 says...
@sirtidychris: O'Connell irreplaceable ? Tommy Bowe the best wing ? Stephane Ferris the best 6 ?... I won't even ask how you rate BOD, Sexton or Kidney. I am not too sure whether you are overrating Irish players or underestimating other teams' players.
Posted 14:25 15th June 2012
sirtidychris says...
Such a shame Ireland have injuries to thier best players...Paul O'Connell, the Irish behemoth is simply irreplaceable....Stephen Ferris on his day many regard him as the best 6 out there and Tommy Bowe one of the best wings around...IF Ireland had all these guys then I still doubt they would win but it would be alot more of a game and they would really test the AB's.
Posted 13:45 15th June 2012
jonesy2 says...
as if we needed more proof that conrad is the greatest. this will be a lovely and very special occasion for the city of christchurch and the canterbury players. i really hope it doesnt rain though. very sympathetic with the prediction but i guess you cant say NZ by 50 odd. or can you? oh and of course goodluck to sam cane! hope he gets some minutes
Posted 13:45 15th June 2012
blametheref says...
Why can't Kidney's Ireland give NZ a match in the true sense of the word? Here's why, the words of one of the Ireland coaches Les Kiss:
"Kiss added that the tourists had focused on lifting their mental intensity in the build up to the second game of the three-Test series."
"It's an attitudinal thing, it's an understanding thing. It's about being quicker, being ready," Kiss added.
"You don't have a minute to wait until the next set piece between breaks, they get the game going quickly and it's implied upon us to be ready for that.
"If we can have a little bit more speed of thought and action then we'll be able to make our one on ones and double team under our terms and ...(create) some havoc."
Kiss talks about speed of thought and more importantly action, as the Irish manager picks the ponderous Murray at 9...Is there a difference of mindset within the Irish camp? Who knows, from the above there would appear to be, but the link between forwards and backs is crucial and with this predominately Leinster backline and backrow it is sheer stupidity to snag that with the selection of Murray at 9...Not only this, but if Ireland were going for their most experienced players Reddan is way more experienced than Murray
All in all I expect Ireland to win by 8 points +.............Think it's time we Irish supporters stopped ogleing about NZ and got behind our team
Posted 13:35 15th June 2012
Trinats2 says...
24 - 18 to someone
Posted 12:25 15th June 2012
tha_mai says...
sandal - the 2008 'hypothermia' test in Wellington, I was there, one of two people waving Welsh flags, surrounded by Irish supporters, many of Irishmen in that tour group had their shirts off to show how soft NZers were! We paid $198 for two 'cheap' seats but there was no problem moving up to better ones as many people with tickets chose to stay at home.
This time it's mid-afternoon local time and expect 32-34C. Chill that ale.
So good for Chch to have a test again, one forecast mentioned 5C - it's warming up!
Posted 12:21 15th June 2012