Pivotal figures: O'Brien and Warburton
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Saturday's World Cup quarter-final between Ireland and Wales is a clear example of just how much can change in a month.
Heading into the World Cup Ireland were at a low, a team struggling to find their feet despite obvious class. Declan Kidney's men didn't get their tournament off to the best start either with an unconvincing win over the USA.
But then came Australia.
With a surprise win over the Wallabies in the bag, suddenly they found themselves being considered genuine title contenders, a near unthinkable prospect not long ago.
Wales too have upped their game since the start of the competition but while there was no shock win for Warren Gatland's men they are most certainly on an upward curve.
In their opening encounters against South Africa and Samoa, it was the Welsh defence that impressed while against Namibia and Fiji some razor sharp attacking was on offer.
Key to both side's resurgence has been the presence of an incredibly talented loose trio.
For Ireland, Sean O'Brien, Stephen Ferris and Jamie Heaslip have been colossal with O'Brien one of the form players in world rugby at present. Such has been the impact of Ferris and O'Brien that even with a slightly off-colour Heaslip in the mix, the Irish back-row has dominated all before them.
They face a stiff test against Wales, though, and the outcome of the loose forward battle will be crucial to determining the end result.
The return from injury of flanker Dan Lydiate is a massive boost for Wales. Lydiate gets through an incredible amount of work and opens up the game for skipper Sam Warburton to snaffle possession and for Toby Faletau to go on his barraging runs.
It's not only the back-row where there will be a tight tussle but also up front.
The Irish scrum was on fire against Australia but against Italy they looked a little less impressive, at least while Martin Castrogiovanni was on the park.
Conversely, the Welsh scrum has gone about their business quietly, not attracting too much attention but that's certainly not because they can't. With Gethin Jenkins in particular looking sharp, the scrums and set-pieces in general will be an interesting contest.
Irish hooker Rory Best's struggle with injury in the lead up to the contest has been well documented and the Welsh will look to put Best under pressure early to test just how fit he is.
One imagines that the game will be won and lost in the forwards, with both back-lines capable of turning on the magic if given good, quick front-foot ball.
Indeed, it's amongst the backs that the most interesting selections have been made.
Gatland has stuck with Rhys Priestland at fly-half and the Scarlets man deserves the nod over the more experienced Stephen Jones. James Hook too may have got a look in at ten but instead finds himself on the bench. It may be due to a lack of fitness but for all his versatility, Hook cannot find a place in the starting XV, with Leigh Halfpenny preferred at fifteen.
Like Gatland, Kidney faced a difficult call at ten and while Gatland went with youth, Kidney has taken the alternate route and retained Ronan O'Gara at pivot.
O'Gara has been forced to sit in the shadow of Jonathan Sexton in recent times, with the Leinster man Kidney's preferred option for the opening stages of both the Six Nations and the World Cup.
The 34-year-old O'Gara's kicking is likely to be the factor that swung matters in his direction. Superior from the kicking tee and out of hand, O'Gara will look to kick for the corners initially and keep Wales on the back foot before Sexton likely enters the fray at a later stage with some additional flair.
When the two teams met in the Six Nations earlier in the year a bruising battle ensued that should only be magnified on the game's greatest stage. It's going to be cut and thrust stuff with neither side giving an inch against opposition that they know well.
Ones to watch:
For Ireland: It was always going to be a close call as to which of Jonathan Sexton or Ronan O'Gara won the battle for the number ten jersey. O'Gara has seen off the challenge of his younger team-mate and Declan Kidney will need the Munster fly-half to repay the faith shown in him.
For Wales: George North was billed as one of the potential stars of the tournament in the build-up and the big winger hasn't disappointed. Up against Keith Earls who has flattered to deceive of late, North could prove a real handful for the Irish defence.
Head to head One can't overstate just how big the battle between the loose forwards will be. It's mouth-watering stuff especially for the neutral. Relentless on attack and defence, the Irish may just have the edge but boy will they be made to work had for every inch!
Recent results:
2011: Wales won 19-13 in Cardiff
2010: Ireland won 27-12 in Dublin
2009: Ireland won 17-15 in Cardiff
2008: Wales won 16-12 in Dublin
2007: Ireland won 19-9 in Cardiff
Prediction: It could go either way and it's sure to be a tight, titanic battle. However, overall Ireland just have the edge and will take the game by five!
The teams:
Ireland: 15 Robert Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (capt), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tom Court, 18 Donnacha Ryan, 19 Denis Leamy, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Jonathan Sexton, 22 Andrew Trimble.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Lloyd Burns, 17 Paul James, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Ryan Jones, 20 Lloyd Williams, 21 James Hook, 22 Scott Williams.
Date: Saturday, October 8
Kick-off: 18:00 (05:00 GMT)
Venue: Wellington Regional Stadium
Weather: Showers earlier, clearing later Max 12°C Min 7°CReferee: Craig Joubert
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes, Romain Poite
Television match official: Giulio De Santis
Assessor: Bob Francis
By Julia Harris






Comments
startledwombat says...
[After the game)
... now wait for Costas O'Malley's (@Michtymauler)'s next post. One would hope that not every Irishman is suffering after such a terrific game.
Posted 11:43 08th October 2011
coronach says...
forecast 7 degrees C and a brisk southerly in Wellington at kick-off time, but light rain should clear - a "tricky night for the goal kickers"
Kick-off is 12 noon our time (Asia) rugby for lunch.
Should be a good one.
Posted 03:05 08th October 2011
RealRugby says...
Wales have looked the most composed of the NH teams so far in the pool stages - apart from giving away one very soft try at the start to South Africa.
Ireland... not so much!
Wales by 12
Posted 20:37 07th October 2011
pog_mahone says...
iolo I entirely agree, I hope the ref DOES allow proper scrummaging. Paul James is no match for Mike Ross. Cian Healy is so fired up he's more than a match for Adam Jones. And give me Best over Bennett any day, particularly on current form. The Welsh threat comes from elsewhere tomorrow I fear... not the scrum.
Posted 19:04 07th October 2011
Celtictenor says...
I sure want Wales to win, even if it is only by a whisker, but I unfortunately feel that Irish physical power, plus the extra bit of experience may just win the day. But it is a pleasure to read all these posts, where we all (including me) say that if our own team doesn't win, we will be backing our Celtic cousins all the way in the subsequent rounds. Ymlaen y Cymry - but if not, good luck for the rest of it Ireland !
Posted 18:26 07th October 2011
Michtymauler says...
Mae hen wlad fy nhadau yn annwyl i mi... ;-)
Posted 16:51 07th October 2011
crockett says...
Kidney's words to "Bull Hayes" (fact or fiction ?) are part of Munster folklore when they they won the Heineken Cup in Cardiff.
"Bull this is your field ........
Now that he has the "Tullow Tank" in Sean O'Brien and the Welsh Dragon to slay I wonder what he will be attributed to having said ?
Posted 16:30 07th October 2011
melkdave says...
No matter what everyone is saying i feel this match is really to close to call lol.So im not going to try,Im just relashing what should be the best match of the QFs imo lol
Posted 16:13 07th October 2011
scollins says...
P.s am just yanking your chain.:) ..Brian and Shane would walk into any starting 15
Posted 15:38 07th October 2011
Carpelone says...
@ Ramage
Spot on
@ Crunchfit
You spotted exactly some weaknesses in the mismatches. Don't know why Hook is not playing.
This is really too close to call. Ireland had a good win against Italy but Italy were dreadful in the second half, so I would not be carried away too much. Experience is on Ireland's side, freshness seems to be on Wales' side. Joubert is an advantage for Wales. The more I think, the more undecided I am. The script of the game can go either way, even by a significant margin, but it is unpredictable.
Posted 15:29 07th October 2011
Carpelone says...
@ Michtymauler
If she is just like C Seta Jones, just learn every verse of Land of my father and enjoy.
Posted 15:21 07th October 2011
scollins says...
Blame the Ref,
Brian O' Driscoll and Shane Williams are great players in the NH and its a pity their talent has been subdued to mediocare competitions such as the Heineken Cup or Magners league . I for one would have liked to have seen them play in better rugby leagues like those in the SH. Do you think they would have stood out in the Super 15/NPC/Currie Cup?
Lets be real here, no NH team is going to win the rugby WC in 2011, I'll put my house on it......
Posted 15:11 07th October 2011
petey11 says...
Ramage, I know what you mean but you can't compare the Australian side we faced and the Saffer side the Welsh faced.
I know it's going to be a huge struggle for 60 mins at least but I strongly believe Ireland have too much for this Welsh side both in intensity and power. We'll have them in the forwards and despite what people think of Keith Earls, we'll take them on in the backs too and come out on top......if we play our best and I base this all on Ireland playing their best game. Drop one notch and the Welsh will go to the semis and I'll support them all the way after that.
It's been said on here that too much has been read into our win over Australia, I say too much has been read into beating a couple of minnows and squeezing past another.....just.
Posted 15:03 07th October 2011
Michtymauler says...
Lads I have a dilemma... I'm lying on a Greek beach with a gorgeous Welsh woman next to me (think Catherine Zeta!!)... Anyway she says if Wales win my holiday can only get better!!!
However I want Ireland to win!! Should I fake it??!! What happens if I jump ip and down when BOD carves up Roberts and Davies??!!!
Anybody got any advice??!!
Answers on a postcard to Costas O'Malley, Blarney Villas, Gouves, Crete !!! ;-D
Posted 14:58 07th October 2011
blametheref says...
It's amazing for once to see most posters here from both sides debating which players to watch and all that and not see a mention about 2 legends of the game, Shane Williams and Brian O' Driscoll....two players that could make the real difference for either side....
Posted 14:41 07th October 2011
Irishlad says...
@jonsey2
I guess analysing results pulled from a backside would be easily done by you given that's where most of your comments come from. Ireland by 6, but I'll be supporting our Celtic cousins all the way if we lose!
Posted 14:39 07th October 2011
jonesy2 says...
one upset pulled out of the backside doesnt mean squat. wales have been the best from the north and have looked likely all tournament easily the best backline from NH teams and have some quality forwards. good scrum. wales should get there by 7 i reckon. should be a great game.
Posted 14:27 07th October 2011
scollins says...
As a springbok fan, this will be a cracker!!!!...Thoughts of my Pint of Guinness washing down my Cheese on toast at 5:am....mmmmmmm...Come on you boys in Green..........
Posted 14:23 07th October 2011
iolo says...
Hope ref allows proper scrummaging
back row - if the ball goes wide then the Irish will struggle to keep/get it. Welsh fitness may well count in last 20. NEVER been this nervous before a match - can't wait in the same way I COULDN'T WAIT for xmas as a kid. Ymlaen Y CYMRY.
Posted 14:18 07th October 2011
crunchfit says...
I would have liked to see Trimble against North, but I guess Earls will have to do. It's nice for a change to only have a slight qualm over the selection of one player instead of half the team to I won't complain too much.
With our power running loose forwards, I'd be worried about Wales' loose forwards fetching ability. I've been watching the fetching aspect of SOB's play over this world cup and he is actually quite good at it. He's not McCaw or Broussow, but he can steal possession in difficult situations. Hopefully Heaslip will up his game for this match.
I wonder if Ireland will play a kicking game at all. Williams vs. Bowe on the wing (5'7 vs. 6'3)? Halfpenny, not normally a fullback and only 5'10, at 15? With Kearney and the forwards bearing down on them it could be difficult.
Posted 14:06 07th October 2011