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Preview: South Africa v England

07th June 2012 14:40

Ben Young going shark diving

Into the Shark Tank: England

The wait is finally over. Durban will be the setting for the first of three Tests between South Africa and England in a June series that promises so much.

It has been a long time since the English arrived in the Republic this confident, as they look to banish what happened in June 2007. Those two internationals - in Bloemfontein and Pretoria - saw the Springboks put a combined 113 points on their visitors. Few expect something similar.

Why? Well for once it is not the English being branded with the "team in transition" label as South Africa are the ones in flux. They are without the retired Victor Matfield and injured duo Schalk Burger and Juan Smith. They are also minus overseas-based players Jaque Fourie, Fourie du Preez and Bakkies Botha currently, with the prospect of the latter joining the squad following his Top 14 exploits not being ruled out by both head coach Heyneke Meyer and Botha himself.

That leads me on to the differing levels of readiness for this series opener at Kings Park and yet another reason why the recently extended Super Rugby term has become more trouble than it's worth. Not only has the quality of games dipped due to tired bodies but now it impacts on the June Tests.

Let me paint more of a picture of how the Springboks are coming into this international. Last weekend the Bulls faced the Stormers in a bruising derby fixture while the Lions hosted the Sharks in another draining encounter. Meanwhile, England were on a game reserve.

While there is a similar story in the north going into November, we've yet to see a series impacted such as this even before a ball has been kicked. Once respective Tests are completed, the south returns to Super Rugby before the Rugby Championship starts.

Consequently the notion that this first Test is where England have their best opportunity of claiming victory holds more weight, particularly as they tackle the Springboks at sea level instead of altitude. That is something that has caused personal angst to former skipper John Smit, who would have liked to see his former colleagues holding any advantage they could in the big opener. "Sadly they're taking England to Durban first, which will be the most comfortable venue of the series. I would have liked them to be taken to the dark corners of South Africa for the first week or two. Durban is sea level so the England players won't feel the burn in the back of the throats and the taste of blood after 20 minutes," he told the BBC.

Such passionate words offer those who are unfamiliar with what a series in South Africa holds an idea of what to expect. The intensity of games will be fierce while supporters will be equally hungry to follow up the 2009 British & Irish Lions with an English scalp.

That epic series three years ago was at the top end of what many of the Lions squad and coaches had faced in their careers, and there is undoubtedly going to be unfinished business in the back of people like Graham Rowntree, Ugo Monye and Lee Mears' minds, even if they refuse to admit it. Throw in a subplot of Brad Barritt and Mouritz Botha being South African born and we have many ingredients that I assure you will not spoil the broth.

Meyer's first squad announcement was met with a feeling of inevitability in many corners of South Africa, not least Cape Town where they feel the Bull heavy selection in the 32 will lead to more of a kick-and-chase style. Hence England coach Stuart Lancaster going for two full-backs in his XV as Mike Brown gets the nod alongside wings Ben Foden and Chris Ashton. Expect lots of airtime in Durban as we know what's coming...now, can England counter it?

Ones to watch:

For South Africa: The arrival of Eben Etzebeth and Marcell Coetzee has been greeted with applause by the vast majority as the duo have been in excellent form for the Stormers and Sharks respectively. Etzebeth is being touted as the new enforcer of South African rugby while Coetzee has been at the top end of the tackle and carry statistics in Super Rugby. Both are quality prospects in the green and gold and are by no means a step down from their predecessors. Watch Coetzee get through a great deal of work on the openside flank.

For England: Exeter Chiefs flanker Tom Johnson and Harlequins loosehead prop Joe Marler will win their first caps for England in the Shark Tank, with both impressing for their clubs this season. Johnson was strong against the Barbarians while Marler has been good for the Aviva Premiership champions. But we have not gone for the forward duo this week as there is one positional switch that caught the eye. Ben Foden being shifted from full-back to wing to accommodate Mike Brown has been long overdue. Brown deserves his shot while it will help the visitors that they have two 15s to help combat the aerial bombardment they are set to receive from the likes of Zane Kirchner and Morné and Frans Steyn. A right call.

Head-to-head: Get a pen ready as there are match-ups all over the field that are set to bring sparks. Starting up front, the Beast against Dan Cole should be good while Bismarck du Plessis and Dylan Hartley is sure to flare up at some point, with Doctor Du Plessis set to step in from tighthead prop should anything kick off. Geoff Parling's line-out battle with Juandré Kruger will be key but we opt for former Sharks centre Brad Barritt going toe-to-toe with his old team-mate Frans Steyn in the midfield. The term "unstoppable force meets immovable object" comes to mind. This should be a good battle with a lots of the physical.

Recent results:

2010: South Africa won 21-11 in London
2008: South Africa won 42-6 in London
2007: South Africa won 15-6 in Paris
2007: South Africa won 36-0 in Paris
2007: South Africa won 55-22 in Pretoria
2007: South Africa won 58-10 in Bloemfontein
2006: South Africa won 25-14 in London
2006: England won 23-21 in London
2004: England won 32-16 in London
2003: England won 25-6 in Perth
2002: England won 53-3 in London

Prediction: Not playing at altitude will offer England a level playing field this week. But it won't be enough for Lancaster's men as I see the Springboks squeezing home by 4!

The teams:

South Africa: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jean de Villiers, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 François Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Keegan Daniel, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Patrick Lambie, 22 Wynand Olivier.

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Ben Foden, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (capt), 6 Tom Johnson, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Mouritz Botha, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Joe Marler.
Replacements: 16 Lee Mears, 17 Paul Doran-Jones, 18 Tom Palmer, 19 Phil Dowson, 20 Lee Dickson, 21 Toby Flood, 22 Jonathan Joseph.

Date: Saturday, June 9
Kick-off: 17:00 (16:00 BST, 15:00 GMT)
Venue: Kings Park, Durban
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant refeerees: Alain Rolland (Ireland), Simon McDowell (Scotland)
Television match official: Iain Ramage (Scotland)

By Adam Kyriacou
Twitter: @PlanetRugbyAK

Comments

JayStarr says...

4. Kirchner, Pietersen, M Steyn, Spies, Alberts and Kruger are all players that fade when they're on the back foot and (except for Pietersen) are weak defenders in general. In a brand new defensive sytem/unit they will be weak links - and Heyneke Meyer decided to pick all of them.

5. In that entire squad there is only one true leader - and that is JdV, who is far away at 13. The pack has no significant leader. Bismarck might be experienced, but he is more often the problem than the solution. What will happen when they're put under pressure? A sense of calm, or yellow cards?

Now consider the fact that this England squad has a (very successful) 6-Nations under their belt - and all the momentum, confidence and cohesion that comes with that. They have also had a nice rest, time for team-building and knows exactly what Heyneke's Springboks are going to try and do. They are strong and cohesive in every facet of their game - including attack - and have a lot of youth and exuberance in their team. They'll start strongly and won't go away. Especially since they don't have to play at altitude.

No, when you think about it, the cards are stacked heavily against the Springboks - even though they're playing at home - and the English should take the first test as long as they turn up, play smart and put the Boks under pressure.

Posted 18:23 07th June 2012

JayStarr says...

I might not be very popular amongst my fellow countrymen right now, but as far as I'm concerned, this one is England's to loose.

Under normal circumstances the result of England playing the Springboks in South Africa would've been fairly easy to predict, but these are not normal circumstances... Far from it.

These are my reasons:

1. England will effectively be playing the South African Barbarians. Actually, the Barbarians have more time together than this group has had. The only established combinations are the front row and the half-backs. The two locks have never played together, and neither Kruger nor Etzebeth has played with Bismarck - so the Springbok lineout will be 5 days old. The back three is made up of a Bull, a Shark and a Stormer, there is a new centre pairing (two inside centres) and a new (unbalanced) back row combination - made up exclusively of ball carriers. Even for the established players it will be new, because they are playing under a new coach with a new approach. No matter how much individual talent there is in this group, as a team they will inevitably be uncohesive on both attack and defense - especially under pressure.

2. Due to the above reasons (and due to Heyneke Meyer's one-track mind), the Boks will come with a Plan A - and nothing else. And a simplified Plan A at that. This makes it easy for England to prepare against and difficult for the Boks if something goes wrong.

3. As the article mentioned, these guys were trying to kill each other a few days ago, after 15 weeks of grueling Super Rugby, and now they are expected to be team mates, adapt to a new game plan and defense pattern and completely re-focus. Psychologically this is pie in the sky - and physically it means they will not be 100% for 80 minutes.

(continued...)

Posted 18:20 07th June 2012

APV1 says...

@ philipjfry - usually. Why do you ask..?

Hic!

Posted 17:48 07th June 2012

BokAvenger says...

Oh gawd, now I'm really worried. Would have felt a lot more comfortable if PR had gone with their customary anti-Bok prediction.

Posted 17:39 07th June 2012

philipjfry says...

@AVP1: Are you drunk?

Posted 17:13 07th June 2012

heathy says...

Overall I think this prediction is prett fair apart from the fact that I think England are in far more of a transition than the Boks. Both teams are in a 'state of flux' but there is still a hard core of experienced Boks in this team despite the absentees. England also have their absentees in as many numbers. However, this is irrelevant really as a test is a test. This is the one that England need to win and the one that they are most likely to win. Once they get into altitude and some of the other Boks come back them the Boks will be far too strong. As I have said on other posts, as long as we compete and keep it close then that will be progress for England. If we nick a test (this one?) then great. However, this will be extremely tough as touring here for ANY side isn't easy. We still have a long way to go but these are the first steps. This is a big step up from the Six Nations so let's see how far the boys can go. As long as they give it their all (which I'm sure they will) and can compete then I'll take that, for now!

Posted 16:49 07th June 2012

ArmchairGeneral says...

NHSaints: Hartley is no match for BDP and Marler not yet for JDP, but that's closer. Second row they have it too with Elzebeth. I disagree with most of your assessment but England can win due to rest and training time and 6 nations together recently. But man for man there's going to be a very stern assessment of England's credentials. The team may well come out on top and then the individuals can gain confidence that they are a match to this tough SAf 15 which they'll need for the second test when the SAf team fuses. England to win first game; comfortably by more than 7 if Ben Youngs is firing from the word go.

Posted 16:22 07th June 2012

Headhunter99 says...

Seems a sound selection by SL, I think the idea of Brown & Foden is a good idea. Its not widley know that both of them have played together in various junior representative sides.

Bit surprised Care is not even on the bench, can anyone throw any light on this.

It will be quite sparky especially if the Boks dont get early scores.

England by 8 for me

Posted 16:13 07th June 2012

NHsaints says...

I have no clue who'll win the first test because it's so damned close...however my money would be on England who seem to have the self belief and skill required to win. I don't think beast will make too much headway on Cole and Hartley and BDP are pretty evenly matched in the set peice, Marler should have the edge on JDP especially in the loose, the second rows will be about even in the scrums and lineouts by my guess and the backrows will have equal carrying skill although I reckon England will have an edge on mobility. At 9 SA will be better at sniping but not at passing, 10 will be about even with Farrels stronger defence substitute for his lack of experience. I don't see many (if any) breaks in the backline with both sides having very strong midfield defence and England have a 10 times better back three...especially with Foden Matching up against Habana in terms of experience. I do think however that we'll have to watch out for JDV intercepts in the 12-13 channel which JDV will be closing down VERY quickly.

Posted 15:44 07th June 2012

hayj05 says...

I once asked about the Boks record on the Highveld & it turned out that they actually had a slightly better (albiet almost identicle) record away from the Highveld.

At Highveld venues P 105 W 71 D 5 L 29 - 67.6% win rate.

At Other venues P 108 W 75 D 7 L 26 - 69.4% win rate.

So it appears that altitude is no advantage for the Springboks afterall.

Posted 15:16 07th June 2012

KubilaKhan says...

This is going to be a heck of a game! Very excited to see it. My only question is how on earth it took this long to have a Brown/Foden combination? Really excited to see if Tuilagi steps up to the potential we all know he has, and Joe Marler is finally getting his due, he should put a name up for himself.

Posted 15:14 07th June 2012

benski says...

Unfortunately I feel your prediction is correct but it won't stop me going for an England win in Superbru!

Posted 15:04 07th June 2012

APV1 says...

Springboks by 4..?! Pah!

England by 6.

We'll beat them in the scrum.

They'll dominate the line-out.

They'll kick everything and try to play in our 22.

Foden and Brown will counter and kick back.

Our mobile forwards will win the breakdown.

barritt and Tuilagi will match them in the centres.

They will try some rough stuff (unsuccessfully) and conceed penalties, maybe even a YC).

Farrell will kick his goals.

A couple of tries-a-piece.

Engalnd by 6.

Job done.

Posted 15:02 07th June 2012

jonesy2 says...

south africa could have picked a team to win by heaps but they didnt so i think they will win by only about 9 or 10

Posted 14:57 07th June 2012

FISH says...

too close too call but if i was forced to pick......the springboks to edge it.....and carry that momentum forward and take the series 2-1

Posted 14:52 07th June 2012

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