Struggling: Declan Danaher
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Without a win in their last six Aviva Premiership matches, London Irish's decline has added a twist to this season's relegation battle.
The Exiles latest defeat was at the hands of champions Harlequins at Twickenham - a game that will not feature in many highlight reels but accurately illustrated where Irish's flaws lie and how they were exposed.
A season of rotten luck and discontent at Sunbury, which began with Joe Ansbro's broken neck against Munster, has twisted and turned through contract speculation, the loss of scrum-half Tomás O'Leary and the leakiest defence in England, with defence consultant Shaun Edwards departing on New Year's Day.
Irish need a break, but so far fortune has been against them - you need look no further than Tom Casson's winning try for Harlequins in Round 7 for an example.
In last Saturday's re-match in the Big Game 5, the Exiles attacking flair that had become their trademark was painfully absent. Their scrum buckled and indiscipline yielded points. For all of their gunpowder in Sailosi Tagicakibau and Jonathan Joseph, none of it was used.
The side that reached a Premiership final and Heineken Cup semi-final in recent years is quickly gathering mythical status, but Irish have no time to look back.
Sale's win over Worcester on Friday closed the gap that has kept them adrift nearly all season to just one point - that one digit being Irish's try bonus point obtained against Northampton in their best performance of the season so far.
Forgetting the circus surrounding John Mitchell; if Danny Cipriani can produce the same composure that he displayed against Worcester then Sale with their personnel can stay in the Premiership.
For a side who many were eager to write off, the deficit between the drop and safety is nearly all but gone. Monday's recruitment of Daniel Braid will add another experienced head for the rest of the season, one more member of a squad that has never been short of talent.
By May, talent might prove to be the deciding factor, which brings London Welsh back into the equation. Nine points clear of Sale with 12 games to go, Welsh have been a real surprise package. Their performances have surpassed all expectations, but cracks are emerging.
Saturday's defeat to London Wasps was their heaviest defeat since the 40-3 thumping from Harlequins - it was also their third successive Premiership match without a try.
The boot of Gordon Ross has been crucial with 108 points so far this season but cannot be solely relied upon. As other Premiership defences continue to digest more video on how to stop their new opponents, the opportunities will diminish.
Squad depth and injuries will also play a part over the next five months, meaning that whilst for now Welsh have a cushion, they are not safe yet.
The battle between all three sides is likely to be decided by the visits of Sale and Welsh to the Madejski Stadium, as the scrap for points continues leading up to May 4th.
Agony for supporters - thrilling for the neutrals.
by Ben Coles
@bencoles_
Comments
ArmchairGeneral says...
Hope Irish stay up. Need a home for the Armitage family to return to before WC year. Would like to have seen Edwards drop Wales and coach an England club full time. Maybe after 6 nations. But agree he needed to full time for one or other.
Posted 22:03 04th January 2013
jamesliveinhope says...
@APV1 agreed but perhaps the better question is "what coaches?"
After Smith "director of rugby" there there seem to be a manager, a forwards coach, one assistant coach and a couple of non-descript "performance coaches" and "conditioning coaches".
Even under Smith the first time around you at least knew where Booth, Catt et al fitted and, given the fairly seamless departure of Smith the first time, you have to wonder where the real coaching leadership was in the changing room.
Not sure what Edwards could have been expected to contribute 1 day per week anyway.
Not sure that they have been helped by injuries/departures either - Mapasua was huge for Irish and I can't help thinking that Ian Humphries would not have been seeing so much game time under Edwards if Geraghty had been fit.
Posted 15:27 03rd January 2013
TVaddict says...
@APV1
Probably. I don't think many teams could survive the player and coach lose LI have suffered over the last two years. I'd say that it's greater than the crisis that Wasps faced last year considering a few seasons ago we beat Leinster away from home but now were reduced to this. Maybe relegation will help us start again with all the young talent that we're practically oozing, and be able to launch ourselves back into the premiership with a bang.
Posted 14:11 03rd January 2013
APV1 says...
Booth and Catt going were bitter blows for LI. Now with the departure of Edwards, perhaps the focus should be on what the coaches are (or aren't) doing with their talented players.
Someone's gotta go down. Will it be Irish this year?
Posted 13:23 03rd January 2013