Back at Twickenham: Dan Carter
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England will conclude a frustrating November at Twickenham when they face world champions New Zealand on Saturday.
With a comfortable win as expected under their belts against Fiji, England went into their matches against Australia and South Africa with a sense of optimism and quiet confidence.
Instead, they have emerged a fortnight later aware of their deficiencies and with their captain under pressure following a series of costly calls at key moments against the Wallabies and Springboks. Many felt before November that England were on their way up. The last three weeks have proven that there is still plenty for them to learn.
Who better to provide a rugby masterclass than New Zealand? Unbeaten in 2012 with 12 wins and one draw against Australia, they are playing at an astonishing level even by their own imperious standards.
Young blood in Aaron Smith, Brodie Retallick, Luke Romano and Julian Savea have eased into the starting XV without any concern, assuring that this All Blacks side did not peak when they finally recaptured the Rugby World Cup last October. If anything they have improved; stronger, faster and more clinical than that trophy-winning side.
England however are not without their own talents. Chris Robshaw's decision-making in recent weeks may be under the spotlight but his dedication and work-rate cannot be questioned. Alex Goode has shown that he can keep defences guessing, whilst Manu Tuilagi remains a struggle to contain.
Alex Corbisiero's return against South Africa highlighted that he is England's most prolific loosehead, although the interpretation of the scrums left something to be desired. Joe Launchbury has taken to Test rugby well and will no doubt fulfil a childhood dream of facing New Zealand when he runs out on Saturday.
Too much about England however remains uncertain. Does Brad Barritt do enough going forward? Can Tom Youngs rediscover the accuracy at the line-out that he had against Australia but eluded him against South Africa? Players who previously have enjoyed great highs for England - Chris Ashton in particular - appear far from their devastating best, their confidence misplaced.
That is something you cannot say about the All Blacks. Confidence has never been an issue and when you have 788 caps in your squad - it shouldn't be. Dan Carter (93) and Richie McCaw (115) have more than England's whole side put together (206).
The incident with Andrew Hore against Wales though has left New Zealand embarrassed according to Steve Hansen. On Saturday they will look to emphasise once again that they are the greatest rugby side on the planet, not a team that wins by thuggery.
When you possess the greatest skill set, set-piece, squad and attacking threats as New Zealand do, the game is relatively simple. For every injury to Carter, you have Aaron Cruden. For every suspension for Hore, you have Keven Mealamu.
Whatever your allegiance, there is no denying the superiority of this All Blacks side - after all, they have beaten every other side they've come across in 2012. A time will come when New Zealand are no longer the world's best and this vintage crop will be looked back on. Best to savour it while it lasts.
Ones to watch:
For England: After his surprise nomination for the IRB Player of the Year earlier this week, all eyes will be on fly-half Owen Farrell. The Saracen returns to the starting line-up in place of the injured Toby Flood and kicked well against South Africa, but questions remain over whether he can spark England's backline into life. Elsewhere, Manu Tuilagi has to shine in these sorts of clashes with New Zealand if he is truly to be considered as a world-class talent. Still only 21, England need him to perform.
For New Zealand: Two of New Zealand's greats are not getting any younger, so any time Dan Carter and Richie McCaw run out at Twickenham it is a moment to savour. Both are included on the IRB shortlist along with Farrell and this will be McCaw's final Test before he takes a sabbatical in 2013. With the thought of a deserved rest around the corner, McCaw will not want to be out fishing with the lingering thought of a loss to England on his mind. Carter, meanwhile, has bounced back from the disappointment of missing the Rugby World Cup final with an outstanding year and should control this one from start to finish.
Head-to-head: With caps littered across both sides, it's two players with the fewest that will face-off in an intriguing duel on Saturday. Joe Launchbury initially impressed off the bench against Australia and made his first start last week against the Springboks, holding his own in the contact area and showing off his athleticism. Brodie Retallick meanwhile has been fighting it out with Luke Romano to be the heir to Brad Thorn's throne - bringing intense physicality to the table and proving to be a reliable operator at the set-piece.
Recent results:
2010: New Zealand won 26-16 at Twickenham
2009: New Zealand won 19-6 at Twickenham
2008: New Zealand won 32-6 at Twickenham
2008: New Zealand won 44-12 in Christchurch
2008: New Zealand won 37-20 in Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 41-20 at Twickenham
2005: New Zealand won 23-19 at Twickenham
2004: New Zealand won 36-12 in Auckland
2004: New Zealand won 36-3 in Dunedin
2003: England won 15-13 in Wellington
2002: England won 31-28 at Twickenham
Prediction: It might be the end of a long year for New Zealand, but that is irrelevant. They will want to end 2012 unbeaten and in some style at one of the stadiums in world rugby where winning means everything. England's best chance is to remain in the match for as long as possible, meaning an ironclad defence and plenty of possession - two factors they had against South Africa but failed to capitalise on. Rather than an upset, this should be another lesson in England's education, and a fitting end to a great season for New Zealand. All Blacks by 15.
The teams:
England: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Manu Tuilagi, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Mike Brown, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Alex Corbisiero.
Replacements: 16 David Paice, 17 David Wilson, 18 Mako Vunipola, 19 Courtney Lawes 20 James Haskell, 21 Danny Care, 22 Freddie Burns, 23 Jonathan Joseph.
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumunia, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Victor Vito, 21 Piri Weepu, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Ben Smith.
Date: Saturday, 1 December
Venue: Twickenham Stadium, London
Kick-off: 14:30 GMT
Referee: George Clancy (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Lourens van der Merwe (South Africa)
Television match official: Giulio De Santis (Italy)
by Ben Coles
@bencoles_
Comments
rugby_rockstar says...
As the duely elected representative for Norovirus I accept your praise.
Ta muchly.
Posted 16:58 07th February 2013
The_Block says...
England man of the match goes to....Novovirus!! Woohoo! Gooo Novovirus! Heck yes!
Posted 16:23 01st December 2012
Tyke_Time says...
Hats. Eaten.
Posted 16:01 01st December 2012
trianglechoke says...
I'm an Allblacks supporter, but I fear the virus will take it's toll on the blacks...remember RWC in south africa where they got food poisoned...I hope they can recover to play well....
Posted 15:32 01st December 2012
Westwest says...
Farrell Player of the year? Where did they get that from? His dad must be pulling some strings? What happend to Read, he has been a standout for me? Can't see Manu making much trouble here. Think the ABs will have his two moves worked out already. Going to be a loss I am sure of that just hope they make a good game of it, and it dosnt turn in to a complete hiding
Posted 11:22 01st December 2012
ArmchairGeneral says...
Hellovanite: A tad harsh on Fez. He didn't nominate himself. Would like to see fez at his best. Then burns if we're playing catch up in last 20-30 as is likely.
Posted 10:31 01st December 2012
hellovanite says...
I hope Farrell hobbles off in the first five minutes and Freddie gets a run. Then we might see an interesting game. Player of the year "my arse"
Posted 03:39 01st December 2012
ArmchairGeneral says...
no way mccaw and carter could beat england on their own. cap for cap we are way better. they can not match us with only the 206 caps and win. and if we fielded 788 caps wed have 60 players
Posted 00:12 01st December 2012
joekridge says...
I have only just seen the Andrew Hore incident on Davies. England come on! Will you teach these All Blacks some humilty,,,its time. Play for all the sides who have battled in vain. I predict that the All Blacks will be beaten more regularly after this match. George Clancy you had better ref like you have never reffed before...watch McCaw like hawk...he will push the boundaries and you will nail him!!!
Posted 20:41 30th November 2012
WorldWary says...
Passtheball,
I thought ABs looked 'bored' rather than jaded in the second half? Just my opinion but it really seemed like they were 33 up and just going through the motions/protecting their players.
It's the end of 11 months for them I think so fair call maybe they are jaded but it really look to me like it wasn't the challenge they expected or wanted and then the substitutes (the whole bench) slightly affected their continuity and precision....two things they base their game on.
Posted 19:51 30th November 2012
Toulousain says...
@passtheball, a game against the French is always interesting!!
Posted 18:10 30th November 2012
Rosbif says...
Good luck APV! Hope the boys put in a massive effort and do everyone proud. As a neutral, I just hope there are no crazy early injuries (off the ball or not), no bizarre refereeing, no weirdly lucky tries (SA anyone?), no professional cynical play, and that the result is determined by moments of pure skill and sheer determination. May the best team win (and may the second best team stay in it for a long time and keep believing they can win!!).
Posted 17:51 30th November 2012
golden_statenba says...
England by 12
Im going to be right one of these days!!!
Good luck ABs!!
Posted 16:37 30th November 2012
rugbylover says...
I agree with you, passtheball. I think the AB's are probably quite pleased not to be facing France this time. Getting a bit tired now.
Who knows, we might get lucky - though I doubt it.
Posted 16:28 30th November 2012
Heathy says...
Great comments everybody. Love the banter (although why, for some, it has to be so vindictive is beyond me). Lets hope for all your sakes the All Blacks win as most of you are going to look very very silly. I have little doubt they will but stranger things have happened. I know we have some of the media that get far too excited and seem bias but then again it is 'our' media and most of us don't agree. However, I have read many articles in New Zealand, South Africa and Australia and have to say you would never find even a hint of bias with these scribes (??????!!!!!!). Hope the games a good un. Lets also hope, for all your sakes, that the All Blacks win or there will be mass posting from the POMS on Sunday!!!!!!!
Posted 16:23 30th November 2012
Facec says...
@ rugby_phile - try myp2p.com it isn't always the best quality but you'll definitely get the Sky Sports pictures through it.
@ startledwombat - change the record. England are the only pragmatic side in word rugby. South Africa and Argentina to name but a few....
Posted 16:07 30th November 2012
Toulousain says...
All the ingredients for an upset here....
Posted 15:57 30th November 2012
connaughtabu says...
Fellow NH rugby fans,
Sadly, I really don't think this English side has either the players or the imagination to beat the All Blacks on this occasion.
The All Blacks will hold their own in the line out, dominate the scrum (just nudge the opposite pack back 2-3m to liberate space for the ball carriers), and after the first frenetic 20 mins, will gain complete control of the breakdown where Richie McCaw, ably-assisted by the backs, will secure the lion's share of the ball (the English back row is too slow - sorry Robshaw, but you aren't an openside flanker). With ball in hand, the ABs are unstoppable, moving it at pace and running lines that other sides find difficult to defend against. Just to make things worse, the Kiwi back three (Dagg, Savea and Jane) will accept all that kicked ball and counter attack without stop until the Limerickman blows that final whistle. In between, Carter will keep the scoreboard ticking over. If you want to see a good scrum half in action, you don't have to look further that Aaron Smith.
I'm not sure the English backs have it in them to score a try - I do hope I am wrong!
Prediction time: England 15 New Zealand 31
Can't wait and come on England, by the way!
:-))
ps: Strange isn't it how different nationalities view refs, from an Irish perspective Clancy is just fine - a good Limerick man. Now Nigel Evans, who be doing the line, this time from a Munster perspective, is a jumped-up, whistle-happy, little Welsh git! Funny that!!
Posted 15:32 30th November 2012
scrumpoacher says...
@dropkick
brilliant! do you have copyright or intellectual property rights on it? I wanna steal it...
Posted 15:10 30th November 2012
TVaddict says...
Lets try a detailed prediction again for some extra fun:
Games will start with a lucky try from England against the run of play, in the first 10 mins or so. However the All Blacks keep their composure and both teams exchange penalties with ABs getting a slight edge. ABs fumble and mess up a few try scoring opportunities, ball held up or just getting a foot in touch, that kind of thing. First half ends with England giving away a stupid penalty, like talking back to to the ref (I'm watching you Ashton), and AB go in 4 points ahead. However it was a competitive first half of rugby and England fans are feeling positive.
Second half begins by crushing that positivity with the ABs dominating and getting a try from a blatant forward pass that goes unnoticed and will obviously be discussed in the usual outrage on here after the match. England rally and start a sustained period of pressure but only manage a penalty or two, then either from a knock on or a stupid kick the ABs start one of their magical counter attack from their own 22 resulting in another try. This makes the ABs about 18 points ahead. On come England's bench who make a great impact, but the match is already lost. England score a penalty in this period and an unconverted consolation try at the end of the match. AB by 10.
You heard it here first. :)
Posted 15:03 30th November 2012