Preview: Australia v New Zealand

Round One: The Bledisloe Cup has been in New Zealnd since 2003

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Teams

• Australia
• New Zealand

Also see

• Pitch gets green light from captains
• Carter wary of Wallabies

New Zealand are in Melbourne this weekend for round one of the Bledisloe Cup and are looking to take a stranglehold on the Tri-Nations.

A full house of ten points against the defending champions sees New Zealand travel to Australia in pole position for the Tri-Nations title and bubbling with confidence.

How quickly things can change. By their lofty standards, 2009 was poor for All Blacks rugby, but since losing to South Africa in Hamilton last September, Graham Henry's team have strung together eleven straight Test victories.

If running eight tries past the Springboks didn't fill the world's number one ranked team with self-belief then their recent track record against their trans-Tasman rivals should.

It makes for unpleasant reading if you're an Aussie: The Wallabies have won just two of their last fifteen matches against the All Blacks and New Zealand have come out on top in the last seven encounters. Ouch!

The last time the All Blacks made it eight straight Tests against Australia was between 1936 and 1947 in an unbroken run of nine wins.

Horrific as that record might seem for fans of the gold and green, one should not forget that the Wallabies have led at half-time in five of their past six encounters.

As Robbie Deans pointed out during the week, those last forty minutes, and particularly the last twenty, are where the men in Black turn it up a notch. If the young Wallabies are going to come good - that's when it needs to happen.

Will Genia's try in the dying minutes to seal victory over the Springboks in Brisbane last weekend is a good sign. As Deans and the defeated Springboks have pointed out, winning at this level is about "mastering those little things" - and doing it for 80 minutes.

Perhaps more significant than that late score was Australia's capacity to compete up front. After being steamrolled by England, the return of Benn Robinson went a long way to steady the scrum. With Stephen Moore back to start at hooker this week, the front row should be even stronger.

The other big change in the Wallaby side is Berrick Barnes reuniting with Matt Giteau in the 10-12 channel where they are likely to interchange roles much in the same way as Giteau did with Quade Cooper.

For Deans to have three players capable of changing between the two position is a true luxury, but he'll hope the Barnes-Giteau combination does better than their last outing together - the disastrous Bledisloe Cup Test in Wellington last September.

The Wallaby coach has made no secret that he expects a big game from both players with many an eye watching Barnes. Giteau will also have a point to prove: In seventeen Tests against New Zealand, the Brumbies playmaker has never crossed the whitewash!

After a relatively low-key start to the Tri-Nations, All Black fly-half Dan Carter will also be hoping to find his range. Australia have won just one of thirteen Tests played against New Zealand while both Richie McCaw and Carter have been on the field, but 'Dan the Man' might not be allowed to get away with the inconsistency he has displayed from the kicking tee so far in this campaign.

The news this week has been all about the All Blacks' attack plans being splashed all over Aussie newspapers thanks to a rather impolite photographer.

The Wallaby camp say they won't look at the pictures. We don't believe them. Of course knowing that Joe Rokocoko will be looking to come screaming through the channel on Carter's inside is one thing, stopping him is another.

The leak means Henry and his staff will have to come up with a few new plans, but as we've all learnt, the All Black bag of tricks is a very deep one.

New plans or old plans, both teams plan to keep ball in hand which bodes well for everyone watching.

Players to watch:

For Australia: It took a suspension for Quade Cooper to give Berrick Barnes a chance in the starting XV and the Waratahs playmaker will want to grab it with both hands. While Cooper was on fire in the Super 14, he hasn't quite set the Test scene alight in the same fashion, so Barnes will want to prove that he is the man to partner Matt Giteau. 17 kg lighter than his opposite number, Ma'a Nonu, Barnes will have to show his mettle as much in defence as attack. The apparent 'weak link' in the Aussie scrum, Salesi Ma'afu needs to come to the party. Up against veteran Test campaigner Tony Woodcock, Australian fans will hope having a familiar partner at hooker (Moore) will help the Brumbies prop.

For New Zealand: Saturday's Test will be a significant milestone for Joe Rokocoko, who will play in his 64th Test to become New Zealand's most capped winger of all time. But the Rocketman will not be allowed to rest on his laurels. With competition for places in the back three red-hot, Smoking Joe needs a big game. Jimmy Cowan has also been given a bit of a lucky break. If not for being away from the squad for the birth of his first child, Piri Weepu could very well have been handed another rare chance to start in the number nine jersey. A big performance could see Cowan retain the berth for Bledisloe Two.

Head-to-head: Walk into any pub in South Africa and everyone inside will insist that both Richie McCaw and David Pocock should have done sin-bin time for their efforts at the breakdown. With a southern hemisphere (yip, he's a South African) referee at the whistle it'll be interesting to see who gets away with what. Pocock's barnstorming performance at the breakdown was instrumental in the Western Force's win over McCaw and his Crusaders in the Super 14 - a repeat could put a spanner in the All Blacks works.

Previous results:

2009: New Zealand won 32-19 in Tokyo
2009: New Zealand won 33-6 in Wellington
2009: New Zealand won 19-18 in Sydney
2009: New Zealand won 22-16 in Auckland
2008: New Zealand won 19-14 in Hong Kong
2008: New Zealand won 28-24 in Brisbane
2008: New Zealand won 39-10 in Auckland
2008: Australia won 34-19 in Sydney
2007: New Zealand won 26-12 in Auckland
2007: Australia won 20-15 in Melbourne
2006: New Zealand won 34-27 in Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 13-9 in Brisbane
2006: New Zealand won 32-12 in Christchurch
2005: New Zealand won 34-24 in Auckland
2005: New Zealand won 30-13 in Sydney
2004: Australia won 23-18 in Sydney
2004: New Zealand won 16-7 in Wellington

Prediction:While New Zealand have won 54 of the 85 Tests on Australian soil, the results Down Under have been evenly shared during the Tri-Nations era. Last year's 19-18 win in Sydney was New Zealand's eighth in Australia during the Tri-Nations, having lost the other seven. We reckon there are still a few too many chinks in the Wallaby armor. History to repeat itself and the All Blacks to win by five.

The teams:

Australia:15 Adam Ashley Cooper, 14 James O'Connor, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom (c), 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Salesi Ma'afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Matt Hodgson, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Anthony Faingaa, 22 Kurtley Beale.

New Zealand:15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements:16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.

Date: Saturday, July 31
Venue: Etihad Stadium (Docklands Stadium), Melbourne
Kick-off: 20:00 (10.00 GMT)
Weather: 12°C. The stadium roof will be shut
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa), Cobus Wessels (South Africa)
Television match official: George Ayoub (Australia)

By Ross Hastie