Deja vu: Canterbury and Wellington meet again in the Air NZ Cup final
And then there were two. The venue may be different, but Canterbury and Wellington will meet once again to battle it out for the Air New Zealand Cup title in a repeat of last year's final.
Christchurch will play host to the men from the capital this time round, as the Lions enter their fourth successive decider - and eighth in the last 11 years - with only one winners medal to show for it.
Wellington, champions in 2000, have been the tournament bridesmaids the rest of the time which included losing a hat-trick of finals to Waikato (2006), Auckland (2007) and most recently Canterbury after going down 7-6 in 2008.
That the Lions have yet another opportunity to bring the elusive silverware home is testament to the team's never-say-die attitude after an average run in the season that saw them hanging mid-table for the most part of their campaign. That was until a late surge saw Jamie Joseph's team confirm themselves as deserved title contenders.
In fact, it's been quite a roller-coaster ride for Wellington fans in 2009, with the up of entering the season as Ranfurly Shield holders, the down of losing the Log o' Wood to Canterbury, the up of winning back some pride by thrashing the Steelers, the down of losing to Taranaki for the first time in 20 years, the up of reaching the semi-final and final again... with a potential down of losing at the last hurdle again!
Yes, it's safe to say that most Lions supporters will be watching the final with one eye open - for most, another loss may just be too much to take. Especially if last year's final is anything to go by.
But Wellington showed plenty of promise in their hard fought 34-21 semi-final win over Southland last week.
The Lions got the basics mostly right against Southland where they enjoyed dominance in the scrums and the line-outs - even with only one recognised lock. Victor Vito complemented his work there and at the breakdown with some hard running in the loose as well.
Piri Weepu, playing at fly-half, was a hugely influential figure both as a goal-kicker (seven from nine) and in general play... it goes without saying that a repeat performance from the discarded All Black will go a long way in pushing Wellington's chances.
But it's Canterbury who enter Saturday's domestic extravaganza as favourites, and it will be hard to argue otherwise.
After a shaky start to their campaign, the men in red and black led the fourteen-team race for the majority of the season and suffered few hiccups along the way.
An opening loss to North Harbour was unexpected, but only made them a stronger side for it with only two more defeats to follow at the hands of Bay of Plenty and Southland.
However, the 9-3 loss to the Stags would have hurt the most and Canterbury would have traded more defeats than having to give up the Ranfurly Shield for the New Zealand summer.
It was thought that without their All Blacks, Canterbury would suffer heading into last week's semi-final with Hawke's Bay - just eight days after losing the Shield.
But Canterbury, missing eight internationals, proved most pundits wrong by sweeping past Hawke's Bay 20-3 to claim home advantage for another final against Wellington, the fifth title encounter between these two heavyweights in the last 10 years.
So Canterbury have certainly showed they are up for the challenge.
One to watch:
For Canterbury: Props Andrew Olorenshaw and Peter Borlase have stepped up to take over from their Test-match team-mates while Samuel Whitelock, the latest of the remarkable brothers, had a storming semi-final locking alongside Isaac Ross. And in a back-row missing the likes of Richie McCaw and Kieran Read, number eight Nasi Manu has become a line-out force to go with his vigorous play around the paddock.
For Wellington: We've already mentioned the important role Piri Weepu will have to play at fly-half for the Lions, and the same with Victor Vito in the loose. But it's the link in between the two that needs to be firing on all cylinders. Weepu needs quick service from scrum-half Alby Mathewson, who will also be required to put in a few relieving box kicks to take the pressure off his pivot. Playing in his last game for Wellington, Mathewson will want to bow out of the capital city on a high.
Head to head: Isaac Ross and Samuel Whitelock v Daniel Ramsay and Jacob Ellison. The Lions pack has responded well since a mid-season revamp - Wellington lost three locks in three weeks - and that could be the ambush factor needed to catch Canterbury off-guard come kick-off. Lions skipper Ellison had to shift from prop to lock but the change has forced Wellington to be innovative with their line-outs and rebuild the scrum - an area which went to the dogs in their last outing against the men in red and black. Canterbury's rangy tall timber of Isaac Ross and Sam Whitelock were a force in last week's semi-final and will be an even greater force again in the final.
Prediction: Saturday's final pits two teams with almost identical records in the thirteen-match round-robin. Top qualifier Canterbury won 10 of their games to the Lions' nine, scored 369 points to the Lions' 362 and conceded 231 points to the Lions' 237 - a net difference of just one point per game. So to say that this game is going to be close is an understatement. Ultimately it falls down to which team has the legs to go the distance. Ah, what the heck... Wellington to win by five points!
The teams:
Canterbury: 15 Colin Slade, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Tu Umaga-Marshall, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Tyson Keats, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 George Whitelock (c), 6 Michael Paterson, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Samuel Whitelock, 3 Peter Borlase, 2 Ti'i Paulo, 1 Andrew Olorenshaw.
Replacements: 16 Steve Fualau, 17 Rodney Ah You, 18 Ash Parker, 19 Matt Todd, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Ryan Crotty, 22 James Paterson
Wellington: 15 Apoua Stewart, 14 David Smith, 13 Alapati Leuia, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Piri Weepu, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Mathew Luamanu, 7 Serge Lilo, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Daniel Ramsay, 4 Jacob Ellison (c), 3 Anthony Perenise, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Arden David-Perrot, 18 Mark Reddish, 19 Scott Fuglistaller, 20 Fa'atonu Fili, 21 Robert Fruean, 22 Daniel Kirkpatrick.
Date: Saturday, November 7
Venue: AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Kick-off: 19:35 (06:35 GMT)
Referee: Vinny Munro
Assistant referees: Chris Pollock, Jonathon White
TMO: Keith Brown
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