Planet Rugby

Preview: Wales v New Zealand

06th November 2009 07:42

Zac Guildford behind Richie McCaw and Rodney So oialo

In-form: Zac Guildford

It has been almost 56 years since Wales last beat New Zealand, with the hosting venues doing little to brighten the autumn picture in the Valleys.

Just once in the last ten meetings have these two actually run out on All Black soil and even that was a 55-3 Hamilton hammering in 2003. So it's hard to disagree that the northerners have not been given a fair crack at turning this run around.

But that hasn't stopped former Kiwi international Warren Gatland from stoking the fire with talk suggesting that their opponents have lost an aura of invincibility. He also threw in past World Cup performances as his ace in the hole, which does its job of giving this one some extra spice.

How does the old saying go though? Don't throw stones from glass houses? Saturday's hosts have certainly not been in the red-hot Grand Slam form that saw them succeed in 2008 have they?

It is also still slightly hazy whether or not Gatland's assessment - picked up in a Welsh Sunday rag - was made before or after Bledisloe Cup events in Tokyo. And many sceptics would imagine those words could soon be brought back up by a brave hack during the Cardiff post-match.

You see where this is going (an away win prediction) and it is largely down to New Zealand having looked somewhere near their usual selves against the Wallabies, with Dan Carter proving once again just how much of a loss he was during the early part of the Tri-Nations.

And despite their second-place finish in that tournament, there is also an argument that the blacks' 2009 record of three defeats could have been very different but for injuries and yes, those Francois Steyn rockets on September 12.

Mercurial fly-half Carter is one of nine players that Head Coach Graham Henry has kept faith with following the Olympic Stadium. Make no bones about it, the classy Cantabrian will, alongside the power of Ma'a Nonu, be key to the visitors hopes of stemming this pretty impressive Welsh back-line.

Elsewhere in Gatland's XV, there is a well-balanced back-row trio of Andy Powell, Martyn Williams and captain Ryan Jones, with Gareth Cooper partnering Stephen Jones inside Shane Williams, Jamie Roberts, Tom Shanklin, Leigh Halfpenny and interim full-back James Hook.

A gripping three-quarter battle awaits but as the cliché goes, this one will be won up front.

Luke Charteris and Alun-Wyn Jones will be dogging out ruck duties and if they can claim individual victories over their opposite numbers then questions could emerge over the Kiwi tight five. Questions that have seen the newly-rotated coaching trio arrange a meeting with Carl Hayman, which could see him go full circle from the black of Newcastle.

Who else will follow ahead of 2011?

Webb Ellis timing is now in every nation's psyche and with New Zealand not yet hitting top gear - unlike previous Cups - November could be the start of their re-emergence to the top.

Ones to watch:

For Wales: No questions in this department as Wales decide to drop James Hook into the full-back slot in favour of the more likely Leigh Halfpenny, who is likely to end up there in future years. There's no doubt that Dan Carter and Mils Muliaina will be raining kicks on the Lion early on and the Welshman's slightly lethargic style could be highlighted if balls are put in behind.

For New Zealand: At the base, it is good to see Graham Henry give Brendan Leonard a starting chance ahead of Jimmy Cowan, which will surely give the Kiwis so much more attacking options with ball in-hand. However, we have picked out a new man on the wing in the shape of Zac Guildford. The Hawke's Bay finisher has been in lethal form this season and if Wales give him a sniff he will make them pay.

Head-to-head: Much was made of whether or not Ryan Jones deserved to retain his captaincy but in the end sense prevailed and he will lead once again this autumn. Saturday will certainly be a huge stage for the 28-year-old to prove his worth and his Andy Powell/Martyn Williams axis against Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw and Kieran Read is one for the purists.

Prediction: Game-time familiarity will be imperative so with New Zealand having gone through the Tri-Nations before Tokyo, I just feel they will have too much. All Blacks by 8!

Recent results:

2008: New Zealand won 29-9 in Cardiff
2006: New Zealand won 45-10 in Cardiff
2005: New Zealand won 41-3 in Cardiff
2004: New Zealand won 26-25 in Cardiff
2003: New Zealand won 53-37 in Sydney
2003: New Zealand won 55-3 in Hamilton
2002: New Zealand won 43-17 in Cardiff
1997: New Zealand won 42-7 at Wembley
1995: New Zealand won 34-9 in Johannesburg
1989: New Zealand won 34-9 in Cardiff

The teams:

Wales: 15 James Hook, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 Tom Shanklin, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Gareth Cooper, 8 Ryan Jones (capt), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Andy Powell, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Alun-Wyn Jones, 3 Paul James, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 Duncan Jones, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Dafydd Jones, 20 Martin Roberts, 21 Jonathan Davies, 22 Tom James.

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Brendan Leonard, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (capt), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Ben Smith.

Date: Saturday, November 7
Kick-off: 17:15 GMT
Venue: Millennium Stadium
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Mark Lawrence (South Africa), Stuart Terheege (England)
Television match officials: Graham Hughes (England)
Assessor: Bob Francis (New Zealand)

By Adam Kyriacou

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