In at fly-half: Kristopher Burton
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Shorn of their star player and reeling from a huge step backwards at Murrayfield, a bruised Italy host Wales this weekend in Rome.
Pardon the melodrama, but Italy without Parisse is like Rome missing the colosseum. Take him away and you lose power, stature and a touch of grace from the Azzurri pack that is nearly impossible to replace.
Italy though must against Wales, so step forward Ratu Manoa Vosawai to fill the gulf. Rome was the scene of historic celebrations at the beginning of this month with victory over France and Parisse was essential to that success. His suspension deprives Italy of their talisman and all rugby fans of his great talent, but there is no excuse for his actions in insulting a referee.
That victory over France however has to be used as a benchmark. Luciano Orquera played the game of his life - deadly accurate in open play, picking the defence apart with his passing and genuinely resembling a completely different player to the one who has been struggling with Zebre at the bottom of the RaboDirect Pro12.
Orquera, however, was so bad against Scotland, that he has been dropped for Kristopher Burton. Attention will turn to Andrea Masi, Gonzalo Canale, Alessandro Zanni and captain for the day Martin Castrogiovanni to provide inspiration.
Whilst Italy on the one hand will have felt deflated following their capitulation at Murrayfield, Wales are bursting with pride.
Their win in Paris was far from a complete performance - their scrum whilst improved certainly benefited from the atrocious turf which prevented France from exerting any dominance - but their commitment in defence and execution when it mattered with George North's match-winning try brought to an end that miserable run of eight consecutive defeats.
An average tackle count of 13 from Andrew Coombs, Ian Evans, Ryan Jones, Justin Tipuric and Toby Faletau summarised their afternoon - with enough hard-work results duly turned in their favour.
Wales have the ability to produce more alluring rugby than the slugfest served up in Paris, and the expectation is that they will go for broke in Rome. If they are to be contenders for the title then inroads have to be made into England's +26 points difference - and Wales will have no better opportunity than this weekend.
Ones to watch:
For Italy: All eyes will be on Ratu Manoa Vosawai as he puts on Parisse's shirt. If he can produce a similar impact to the regular Italian captain, then credit to him. With only two starts to his name out of ten caps - his only appearance at number eight came against Portugal in the 2007 Rugby World Cup - Vosawai lacks experience and is faced with a tough afternoon against the Welsh back-row. Elsewhere, Andrea Masi is flourishing for London Wasps in the centre but starts from full-back.
For Wales: Scotland proved that Italy are far from a defensive wall, meaning this weekend's fixture is made for tries. North may have grabbed the headlines in Paris, but Alex Cuthbert is due a big performance in this year's Six Nations - with Rome appearing to be the perfect opportunity to make his mark along with giving his Lions hopes a boost. Otherwise, attention should be paid to rising star Andrew Coombs in the second row - with the Dragon making a real impression in his first Six Nations championship so far.
Head-to-head: Italy might sense a slight chink in the Welsh scrum, so expect them to throw one of their more lethal weapons in Martin Castrogiovanni at Gethin Jenkins all afternoon. Jenkins has struggled for game-time at Toulon (Castro's future home) but is beginning to hit form, whilst Castrogiovanni will look to replicate his outstanding performance both in the set-piece and in the loose against France this weekend.
Recent results:
2012: Wales won 24-3 in Cardiff
2011: Wales won 24-16 in Rome
2010: Wales won 33-10 in Cardiff
2009: Wales won 20-15 in Rome
2008: Wales won 47-8 in Cardiff
2007: Italy won 23-20 in Rome
2006: Draw 18-18 in Cardiff
2005: Wales won 38-8 in Rome
2004: Wales won 44-10 in Cardiff
2003: Wales won 27-15 in Canberra
Prediction: Italy's form has been so wildly inconsistent over their first two games that it's difficult to predict which side will turn up. But the absence of Parisse will cut deep and Wales with their pride restored will now want to express themselves. Wales by 10
The teams:
Italy: 15 Andrea Masi, 14 Giovambattista Venditti, 13 Tommaso Benvenuti, 12 Gonzalo Canale, 11 Luke McLean, 10 Kristopher Burton, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Ratu Manoa Vosawai, 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Francesco Minto, 4 Antonio Pavanello, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini (c) 1 Andrea Lo Cicero.
Replacements: 16 Davide Giazzon, 17 Alberto De Marchi, 18 Lorenzo Cittadini, 19 Quintin Geldenhuys, 20 Paul Derbyshire, 21 Tobias Botes, 22 Luciano Orquera, 23 Gonzalo Garcia.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Ryan Jones (c), 5 Ian Evans, 4 Andrew Coombs, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Craig Mitchell, 19 Alun Wyn Jones, 20 Sam Warburton, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 James Hook, 23 Scott Williams.
Kick-off: 15:30 (14:30 GMT)
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant referees: Alain Rolland (Ireland), Pascal Gauzere (France)
Television match official: Geoff Warren (England)
by Ben Coles
@bencoles_
Comments
collarbone says...
My guess big win for the boyos. Why italy will not get over sergio missing. Quando non che il capo no si lavora.
Posted 00:33 23rd February 2013
giomamo says...
Here are videos on Parisses' episode:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae25bxo_-7w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0afCJxJPfDI
everybody can get his own idea.
Anyway, Italy come out a tough deserved defeat by Scotland, Wales come out a win in Paris: dragons are obviously favourites tomorrow and they can count on a very brilliant backline too. Italy needs to put pressure with its frontline and try to keep possession. Weather could have impact on performances as well (it's expected to be a rainy day in Rome).
Posted 20:10 22nd February 2013
Lucasrg says...
No dramas for me upon Parisse's ban.
Vosawai is a powerful ball carrier and a dominant defender. but he is not good in the ariel game. Still a competitive n8. If things goes wrong then expect to see quickly in the pitch Derbyshire who can do pretty much everything right.
The big clash here will be at the scrum half battle. both love to run ball in hand. Big test for Gori as Phillips will put a lot of pressure on him.
Burton tends to kick too much the ball but hopefully will have a good booting game as often he did in the Rabo12. If he will be under pressure in defence, I can see Masi jumping in the defensive line as a fly half as it worked pretty well against France with Orquera dropping out. Burton can even drop at 15 I guess.
My prediction: too close to call!
Forza Azzurri!
Posted 19:36 22nd February 2013
giomamo says...
@jontheref: i don't know if you're a psycologist (i'm not) but i don't see that "guilt all over his face" in the video: i've seen the face of an angry person instead, not guilty. Moreover the sentence is pronounced in english, not the first, nor the second and even not the third language of Parisse (respectively: italian, french and spanish) and he speaks in french when he's off the field. The referee is given his back to the player and there's another player around there. So there's not all that evidence you've seen, following my opinion. Anyway i'm sure the referee has heard the sentence he reported to the commission, only Parisse can really know if the sentence was really pronounced by himself or not, after all. I respect the red card decision, but i'm still thinking there's not a sure evidence.
Posted 19:13 22nd February 2013
jontheref says...
giomamo,
I know you must be hurting about Parisse, and I thought he may have got off with a "red card was sufficient", but on the video he is clearly heard.
Also, look at his body language afterwards, the guilt is all over his face.
His actions after the sending off, were of one who was caught, not one who was wronged.
Posted 16:45 22nd February 2013
Taffster says...
I fear of Welsh complacency if they think Italy will buckle because Parisse will be absent. Though I think the Autumn ought to have taught them that's a dangerous mindset to get into. I too, rugby_rockstar, would like to see Roberts pass the ball before or out of contact - there has to be another dimension to his game. I won't rest easy until the final whistle. Italy's structures are in place and they've known exactly who they'll play for 2 weeks now so will be prepared.
Hope both teams watched the Highlanders v Chiefs this morning for a bit inspiration.
Posted 15:32 22nd February 2013
bluechief says...
burton is rubbish. expect to see north, cuthbert and maybe even roberts (if he can actually resist knocking it on!) getting some joy down this channel. faletau, the man with the most carries in the championship, also has to fancy a stroll or two dow the ten channel. without parisse and the Luciano Orquera from round 1, italy look a little toothless. if biggar gets his kicking out of hand right, the wales by 12+
Posted 14:06 22nd February 2013
giomamo says...
Columnist has none doubt of Parisse's insult to the referee, even if there is no evidence of it in the video. Anyway, rules are clear and captain is out of the game. Now is time for Italy to show they are "adult" and they worth more than a single talented player.
Come on Azzurri, with pride and fury!
Posted 13:25 22nd February 2013
melkdave says...
Apprehensive about this game if im honest.Wales should win,but having just got back to wining ways,,and being the confidance team they are.Any set back could let them start doughting themselves again.Italy are well capable of wining this game,despite the loss to Scotland ,take away the interception try of Hogg ,which 999 times out of a 1000 would have been a try for Italy and the Lamont try,which was just sheer stupidity,and the game could have gone to Italy .They did play good structured rugby,but made silly mistakes.The welsh scrum has also been shown to be not as good as some believe in their 2 matches so far.Its going to be closer than alot think,unless Italy implode again.Hoping its a welsh victory,but i think just to close to call really.
Posted 10:59 22nd February 2013
dan73 says...
Did you check the weather forecast? Thunderstorms and strong winds predicted for the match. It will be the first time ever that it rains for a 6 Nations match in Rome. (It snowed once, but never rained!)
Posted 10:49 22nd February 2013
carpelone says...
That is quite a reckless prediction, PR.
Wales are clearly favorite here, but it sounds too close to call.
Poite's is the master of scrum resets, and this should go in favour to Italy.
Posted 10:37 22nd February 2013
rugby_rockstar says...
First thing I looked at was the ref and I've happy it isn't an englishman. they just don't get along with the Azzurri way and I want Wales to have to win this rather than be given it on a plate due to law interpretations.
Wales were poor vs france. That match was god awful and for all the positive noises coming from Howley and the players, they will be sighing in relief at the Parisse's ban. They still have to worry about Zanni though and if I was coaching italy, I'd have been working hard on our defensive line speed and be looking to blitz Wales into either the Adriatic or Tyrrhenian seas! Wales still haven't proven they any kind of idea how to break defences. So pressurise them.
I think it'll be close, but until Jamie Roberts actually decides to pass a ball along the line rather than die with it, I've got to go with Italy. Watching Wales is like watching Ireland in the late 90's when Kevin Maggs was playing 12.
Posted 10:26 22nd February 2013