Planet Rugby

Predictions: Super Rugby 2013

15th February 2013 06:46

Share:

Ma a Nonu at a Highlanders pre season game

New Highlander: Ma'a Nonu

It is that time of the week again when 'Orrible Punt sits down in the Planet Rugby hot-seat to give you his calls. Brace yourself for some Super Rugby.

Remember you can contact Russ with all your comments and questions on Twitter - @rpetty80.

Click here to compare odds on Rugby Union with Oddschecker.com!

New Zealand Conference

The Highlanders have recruited well - bringing in Brad Thorn, Tony Woodcock, Ma'a Nonu and I'm a fan of the 7.0 for them to top their conference. The past two years they have started strongly, winning 7/9 matches but then faded. With six home fixtures in the first nine games and four matches against conference rivals, they have the chance to build up momentum. Looking at their non-conference ties, they have an average success rate of 77% against that opposition in the specific fixtures (compared to 63% for the Crusaders and 54% for the Chiefs). They are unlikely to move too far away from their abrasive, grinding style but there has been talk of perhaps approaching the breakdown with a bit more subtlety and reducing the number of penalties conceded there. If they get off to their usual quick start then the price appeals and there is the option of opposing them after their Round 10 game against the Kings if you think they are going to slump late on, as in the last two seasons.

Australia Conference

The Brumbies capitalised on both the Reds injury issues and general shambles at the Waratahs last season, but just fell short of a play-off spot. Critics may point at those factors and that their wins came against sides ranked eighth or below as reasons to oppose, but I am taking the 3.3 price for a conference win. The Lions tour is going to have an effect on the Australian group and the Brumbies may end up being less hit than their rivals. They only had three players represented in the last Australian squad compared to thirteen Waratahs and eight from the Reds. They weren't beaten by more than seven points by a top six side in 2012 and an already resilient team has been improved by David Pocock and some South African grunt. Unlike the other contenders they don't have a new coach settling in, or the distractions that Quade Cooper / Israel Folau may bring so they are our picks in Australia.

South Africa Conference

If you like the Bulls, I'd back them after their away tour, so from Round 7. They've only won 3/36 away games against their non-conference opposition in Rounds 3-6 so their price should increase before their run of home games. Unlike last season, the Sharks start with 4/6 home games and I can see them being popular with punters, but I'm breaking a habit of avoiding the favourite and backing the Stormers at 2.5. They finished seven points clear last season, despite only collecting two bonus points (the average was eight in 2012 with the Sharks, Bulls both picked up eleven) and it may be that their new signings and lessons learnt from a successful Western Province Currie Cup campaign brings a more attacking intent. A run-in that sees them play the Kings twice should build plenty of momentum.

Grand Final Winner

The pattern for league success of winning your home games, picking up points on the road and collecting bonus points is pretty well established now in most competitions. Super Rugby has the added intricacies of the conference system and how friendly the fixture compiler is. There is yet to be a Final winner that finished lower than second and while over a period of time the extended play-off system may change that, I'd still be happier backing a team that is more likely to secure a home semi-final than an outsider. The Stormers have finished in the top two in the last three seasons so have the pedigree. If you look at their matches against the other bookies favourites - they play the Chiefs, Crusaders, Brumbies and Reds at home and swerve the Highlanders completely so the price of 8.0 suits.

Other

The tempting 2.0 for the Kings to finish bottom that was on offer back in August is long gone and a best of 1.29 is available now. As a reference - the Rebels have conceded 570 and 520 points in their short existence and had far better preparation than the new South African side. It's a short 1.25 for the Kings to concede over 500 points and 3.0 for them to leak more than 585. That and the 3.0 for them to lose every match will no doubt be taken up. A treble of Stormers, Highlanders and Brumbies to win their conferences is up at a tempting 42.0.

Top try-scorer

Based on the last two seasons, it's going to take nine or ten tries to take the top scorer crown. I like the idea of looking at a South African side to produce the top scorer as they each get two clashes with the Kings. Since 2007, there has been a Bulls player in the top two scorers each year. Bjorn Basson was prolific in 2011 and 2012 and deserves attention at 21.0, while Lwazi Mvovo at 26.0 and a bigger call of Raymond Rhule at 41.0 may also appeal for e/w value. In the other conferences, Dom Shipperley and Henry Speight at 41.0, Frank Halai at 26.0 and Andre Taylor at 21.0 may give a good run for your money.

Click here to compare odds on Rugby Union with Oddschecker.com!

Forthcoming Fixtures
FixtureDetails
All times are local
Aviva Premiership
Friday , April 18
Harlequins vs Leicester19:45
Saturday , April 19
Exeter vs Sale15:00
Bath vs Worcester15:00
Wasps vs Gloucester15:15
Sunday , April 20
Northampton vs London Irish14:00
Newcastle vs Saracens15:00
More Aviva Premiership fixtures
RaboDirect PRO12
Friday , April 18
Leinster vs Benetton Treviso17:00
Glasgow vs Ulster19:35
Saturday , April 19
Zebre vs Edinburgh14:30
Connacht vs Munster18:15
Sunday , April 20
Cardiff Blues vs Scarlets14:00
Newport Gwent D'gons vs Ospreys16:45
More RaboDirect PRO12 fixtures
Top 14
Friday , April 18
Castres vs Montpellier20:45
Saturday , April 19
Oyonnax vs Toulouse14:55
Perpignan vs Toulon17:00
Grenoble vs Bayonne18:30
Biarritz vs Brive18:30
Racing Metro Paris vs Clermont Auvergne18:30
Stade Francais vs Bordeaux-Begles20:35
More Top 14 fixtures
Super Rugby
Friday , April 18
Hurricanes vs Blues19:35
Melbourne Rebels vs Western Force19:40
Saturday , April 19
Chiefs vs Crusaders19:35
Waratahs vs Bulls19:00
Sharks vs Cheetahs15:00
Stormers vs Lions17:05
More Super Rugby fixtures
Recent Results
FixtureDetails
All times are local
Aviva Premiership
Sunday , April 13
Saracens 28 - 24 NorthamptonSaracens vs Northampton Report
London Irish 40 - 12 NewcastleLondon Irish vs Newcastle Report
Saturday , April 12
Worcester 33 - 38 ExeterWorcester vs Exeter Report
Leicester 27 - 15 WaspsLeicester vs Wasps Report
Gloucester 17 - 18 BathGloucester vs Bath Report
More Aviva Premiership results
RaboDirect PRO12
Benetton Treviso 45 - 27 Newport Gwent D'gonsBenetton Treviso vs Newport Gwent D
Scarlets 27 - 20 ZebreScarlets vs Zebre Report
Munster 5 - 22 GlasgowMunster vs Glasgow Report
More RaboDirect PRO12 results
Top 14
Bordeaux-Begles 20 - 22 ToulonBordeaux-Begles vs Toulon Report
Toulouse 16 - 9 BriveToulouse vs Brive Report
Grenoble 30 - 36 Montpellier
Perpignan 22 - 12 Oyonnax
Bayonne 24 - 19 Stade Francais
Racing Metro Paris 37 - 7 Biarritz
More Top 14 results
Super Rugby
Chiefs 22 - 16 Melbourne RebelsChiefs vs Melbourne Rebels Report
Western Force 28 - 16 WaratahsWestern Force vs Waratahs Report
Lions 12 - 25 SharksLions vs Sharks Report
Cheetahs 31 - 52 CrusadersCheetahs vs Crusaders Report
More Super Rugby results
Aviva Premiership
Friday , April 11
Sale Sharks 12 - 27 HarlequinsSale Sharks vs Harlequins Report
More Aviva Premiership results
RaboDirect PRO12
Ulster 58 - 12 ConnachtUlster vs Connacht Report
Edinburgh 22 - 29 Cardiff BluesEdinburgh vs Cardiff Blues Report
Ospreys 25 - 19 LeinsterOspreys vs Leinster Report
More RaboDirect PRO12 results
Top 14
Clermont Auvergne 23 - 11 CastresClermont Auvergne vs Castres Report
More Top 14 results
Super Rugby
Highlanders 27 - 20 BullsHighlanders vs Bulls Report
Reds 20 - 23 BrumbiesReds vs Brumbies Report
More Super Rugby results
Aviva Premiership Table
PosTeamPPts
1Saracens1976
2Northampton1966
3Leicester Tigers1963
4Bath1959
5Harlequins1954