Ireland: Defeat is non-negotiable
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Ireland will be chomping at the bit to get their Six Nations campaign back underway again against Italy in Dublin on Saturday.
The Irish have been inactive since losing to Wales on the opening weekend of the tournament and will be eager to resume with a win against the Azzurri, which will end Ireland's three-match losing streak at the Aviva Stadium.
Italy sit bottom of the Six Nations table following defeats to France and England while Ireland similarly have no points after losing to the Welsh, before their clash in Paris was postponed due to the weather. The lone positive from the French farce is that it gave Ireland's players the chance to rest aching bodies ahead of this weekend's clash with the ultra-physical Italians.
Indeed, one thing any team can rely on when they face Italy is a test of their muscle. And with the rescheduled tournament giving Ireland an unexpected four games in four weekends, Jacques Brunel's men will provide a tough start to that run of fixtures.
Italy come to Dublin knowing they've lost every Six Nations match against Ireland since entering the tournament, leaving just the Irish and England as the two scalps they've yet to claim in the competition. They came close to their first-ever victory over England two weeks ago after leading 15-6 early in the second half at a snowy Stadio Olimpico in Rome, before conceding 13 unanswered points.
Ireland's previous Six Nations encounter with Italy ended with a heart-stopping 13-11 victory at the Stadio Flaminio secured only by Ronan O'Gara's last-minute drop goal - while Ireland needed a second-half blitz to see them off at the World Cup, ending their hopes of reaching the knockout stages.
One factor which could work in Italy's favour is Ireland's poor record at the rebuilt Lansdowne Road. Since the redeveloped arena opened in 2010, Ireland have lost six of the nine internationals played there.
"We're well aware of the record and it is annoying and frustrating," said Ireland skipper Paul O'Connell.
"We've rarely put in an 80 minute performance there and that's the real problem. We're an excellent side but we haven't been that excellent side for the whole 80 minutes and that will be the goal for this weekend."
Ireland centre Gordon D'Arcy agrees with his captain, admitting their championship hopes will go up in smoke unless they drastically improve their home form. The defeat to Wales on the opening weekend of the Six Nations was the Irish's third successive defeat in Dublin.
"Regardless of who we are playing, it's a home game and we should be winning those," said D'Arcy.
"The fallout from the Wales game was maybe justified by the exit from the World Cup, the fact that it was our first game at home and the amount of games we lost at the Aviva last year."
Ireland will field the same line-up chosen for the postponed Round Two clash with France. Brunel, by contrast, has made four changes to his side that squandered a nine-point lead in their 19-15 loss to England.
South African-born Tobias Botes will make his first start despite, after replacing Australian-born Kris Burton, missing two penalties against England that could have helped Italy to a historic victory over the defending Six Nations champions. But Burton's tactical kicking from fly-half was also widely criticised.
A big blow for Italy is the injury to star prop Martin Castrogiovanni, who will miss the rest of his team's campaign after breaking his rib against England. Lorenzo Cittadini has been handed the ardous task of filling Castrogiovanni's boots, while Michele Rizzo replaces the dropped Andrea Lo Cicero.
The Castrogiovanni injury is a set-back Italy could do without, but with Italy looking for their first win in the championship, the hunger to win will still be there as they bid to avoid a 13th straight Six Nations loss to the Irish.
Ones to watch:
For Ireland: Keith Earls was our player to watch against Wales, but was a late withdrawal for personal reasons. He was named to start against France, but this time the weather kept him out. The Munster man will be hoping it's third time lucky this time round as he lines up in Ireland's famous number 13 jersey to prove he's the best player to fill Brian O'Driscoll's shoes.
For Italy: Tobias Botes made the headlines for all the wrong reasons in only his second Test match for Italy when he came on as a replacement at fly-half against England. He has a been given a chance to make amends, but will be targeted by the Irishmen from the kick-off.
Head to head: While Italy are keeping ball in hand a bit more and being more expansive, the Ireland pack will be bracing themselves for another ferocious forwards battle. The Azzurri are one of the best in the business when it comes to the maul, scrum and are exceptionally good around the fringes. But while Italy may be stronger up front, Ireland are stronger at the breakdown - an area the visitors must match if they are to achieve victory.
Recent results:
2011: Ireland won 36-6, Dunedin
2011: Ireland won 13-11, Rome
2010: Ireland won 29-11, Dublin
2009: Ireland won 38-9, Rome
2008: Ireland won 16-11, Dublin
2007: Ireland won 23-20, Belfast
2007: Ireland won 51-24, Rome
2006: Ireland won 26-16, Dublin
2005: Ireland won 28-17, Rome
2004: Ireland won 19-3, Dublin
Prediction: Whilst Italy have been a far more competitive unit thus far this season, they just can't keep it up for 80 minutes. Defeat is not an option for Ireland and we're expecting them to come out all guns blazing. Ireland to win by 14 points.
The teams:
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell (c), 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tom Court, 18 Donnacha Ryan, 19 Peter O'Mahony, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Ronan O'Gara, 22 Fergus McFadden.
Italy: 15 Andrea Masi, 14 Giovanbattista Venditti, 13 Tommaso Benvenuti, 12 Alberto Sgarbi, 11 Luke McLean, 10 Tobias Botes, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Robert Barbieri, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Marco Bortolami, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Michele Rizzo.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso D'Apice, 17 Fabio Staibano, 18 Antonio Pavanello, 19 Simone Favaro, 20 Fabio Semenzato, 21 Kris Burton, 22 Gonzalo Canale.
Date: Saturday, February 25
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 13.30 (13.30 GMT)
Weather forecast: Overcast with patches of sunshine. High of 10°C and a low of 6°C.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), David Changleng (Scotland)
TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)
Comments
damo says...
if Italy pick out Darcy for their attack we are in trouble, I heard today the young breed of Irish players need to have a good 12 months to displace the current starters and I found it laughable arcy is on for his 4th year in a row offering nothing to the team (had 1 good game for the Baa Baas in the last 3 years) and still he is there Kidney needs to be let go, Small is gone now due to an eye complaint I wish him well lets hope anthony Foley mentions to Kidney that he has more to offer than Darcy and we can finally move onwards and upwards.
Posted 23:25 24th February 2012
carpelone says...
Joubert will play a huge part in the Irish emphatic win, as he does not like to be on underdogs' side (just see his performance in the England vs Italy game last year).
However, he could just influence on the winning margin, as I do not see how Irealnd loosing this.
As said, Ireleand was not bad against Wales and Italy have not the steam for an entire match.
I would not be surprised if Ireland win by 20+ (unless Botes and the Italian backline gel).
Posted 20:33 24th February 2012
carpelone says...
Thatllbme
More or less like Nz vs France final, which was school boy rugby
Posted 20:27 24th February 2012
DaveJ says...
paint drying, grass growing - some fantastic analogies that I would associate with your 'attempts' at trolling Thatllbme. Good Lad.
Posted 19:54 24th February 2012
Viriato says...
Italy will fight hard, but sadly I can't see other options than a Irisu victory.
Hope to see an expansive italian side, with the brain of Botes.
Anyhow After the snow in Rome I hope to see the Azzurri sky in Dublin.
Posted 16:54 24th February 2012
froggy73 says...
@howrtings: we all know what PR polls are worth ! In the most recent one Ireland had more votes than France and SA to win the World Cup, and roughly 10% (I suspect mainly Irish blokes) of the voters think Ireland (who has yet to win a 1/4 final) will lift the 2015 WC trophee. 10% !! seriously ! These polls are pointless.
Posted 15:42 24th February 2012
curates_egg says...
The criticism is constructive howrthings. People on PR have repeatedly pointed out problems with selections (out of form players or players out of position) and tactics (such as the defensive tactics in the last match), and particularly with the management and the limited coaching ticket.
Simpletons like you take criticism of the Irish team as something personal or unpatriotic. It is not. It is justified frustration from Irish rugby fans who are witnessing yet another half-baked manager wasting a talented group of players.
The Irish squad has arguably never been stronger than over the past 18 months and Kidney is getting brutal performances out of these players. It is unpatriotic not to get angry about that.
Posted 15:17 24th February 2012
howrtings says...
In a recent poll Wales were favorites to lift the next Rugby World Cup. They have one of the most exciting squads to be assembled in the past 15 years, and we lost to them by 2 points, to a last minute penalty that should never have been.
I would love to see a bit more constructive criticism by some of the anti-Irishmen who contribute to these articles, apart from the predictable spouting along the lines of get rid of them and start again!!!!
For the weekend I see a huge Ireland performance - loving the noise coming out of the camp this week, Ireland by 20
Posted 13:35 24th February 2012
Sincero says...
You'll be looking much more at a performance akin to the 2008 match... we'll scrape it, and largely thanks to the injuries and terrible selections that lessen the chances for our visitors. Well inside the 15 h/c for me is the most likely out-come... would not rule out the wheels coming off for Italy, but still doubt we'd put them away, and certainly not rule out the shock Italian win. However, my bet is Ireland, in front of an over-charged and frustrated, and deathly silent and miserable public, will sneak it. What will we have learnt? Nothing we didn't already know.
Posted 13:15 24th February 2012
melkdave says...
Got a feeling it will be a little closer than the predicted 14 points myself more like 6-9 point irish victory .Ireland have to start to find some form really .Battled hard against Wales and manged to take advantage of the Davies yellow card to put themselves into a wining position then totally blew it imo..Against a 15 man Wales to be honest Ireland didnt produce anything and spent alot of the game on the back foot defending and kicked away to much ball and kicked poorly to boot.One match up that hasnt been mentioned is Earls verses Benvenuti both are fairly new to 13 both have pace and twinkle feet .Benvenuti is however alot bigger than Earls who lets be honest isnt really a class tackler might Italy have an edge there i wonder.I also dont think Italy will be kicking alot of ball away either but will look to crash through get quick ball and exploit any holes on the fringes One thing is clear though Ireland really do have to perform this weekend otherwise the pressure from fans ect will force the IRFU to start asking questions of Kidney and co as exactly where they are taking Irish rugby as to the future
Posted 11:29 24th February 2012
J_HDK says...
Three home wins out of nine.
Ireland need some new ideas.
..ie new coaching staff.DK brings nothing to the table.
Posted 10:41 24th February 2012
curates_egg says...
My prediction is that Ireland will learn nothing from this game and that Fr Declan will give yet another meaningless press conference afterwards.
As for the game, even with the misfiring coaching ticket, it is hard to see anything other than Ireland getting close to the spread.
As someone who was at the Italy-Ireland match in 2007, it would be nice to see that kind of performance again. Not a chance though.
Posted 09:34 24th February 2012