Ready to go: Ireland and England
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Having both picked up victories in Round One, the clash between Ireland and England is being viewed as a premature Six Nations title decider.
Addressing Sunday's match in Dublin as a sign for who will take him the trophy next month is a tad pre-emptive, yet England and Ireland both did enough on the opening weekend to suggest they possess championship material.
Starting with Ireland, we will be lucky if we witness as dominant an opening quarter such as the one Declan Kidney's side produced against Wales in Cardiff, from any team again in this Six Nations. Ireland were as brilliant as Wales were awful - with better execution, planning and power at the breakdown, not to mention a moment of magic from Brian O'Driscoll to add to his already vast collection.
That clinical edge that Ireland showed in Cardiff has only been witnessed in flashes over previous years - the win over Australia at the Rugby World Cup, last November against Argentina - since Ireland captured the Grand Slam in 2009.
Their second half however was a different matter. Ireland's well of possession dried up following O'Driscoll's try, forcing them into a defensive workout that by the end left their tackle count at 200 - with Cian Healy and Mike McCarthy making 21 and 20 respectively - along with the concession of three tries.
Arguably the contest was already over at 3-30, but Ireland's defensive lapses at one stage let concern grow as to whether they could hold on. In many ways it was a timely reminder that Ireland are far from perfect - enough to keep them humble and realistic before facing the "arrogant" English on Sunday.
Except England are not so arrogant anymore. Saturday's victory over Scotland was convincing and yet the immediate statement from Stuart Lancaster was that England could do better.
He is not wrong - four tries, a scrum and lineout with success rates over 83% and an impressive number of completed passes (221) are all positive signs - but more points were left out on the field.
Debate has been fierce in the build-up to Sunday's fixture about who should make up England's centre pairing and whilst a combination of Billy Twelvetrees and Manu Tuilagi may represent the future, the threat posed by Ireland in midfield is enough to make Lancaster think again and keep Brad Barritt.
The possibility of a Grand Slam in 2013 appears minimal given the proximity of the competition, but by the end of Sunday one more candidate will be snuffed out. We are set for a thriller.
Ones to watch:
For Ireland: The fact that Brian O'Driscoll still holds so much sway and influence aged 34 and after 127 caps is a testament to his talent. O'Driscoll offered a reminder of this against Wales and will be closely marked by England this weekend. His speed has gradually been replaced by power around the fringes - a test for any tired tacklers late in the game. Elsewhere, Donnacha Ryan will be charged with attempting to disrupt England's efficient lineout and prevent an easy platform for Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell.
For England Previous trips to Dublin have shown that if points are on offer, England cannot afford to let them slip. That focuses attention on Owen Farrell - the Saracens fly-half whose kicking form of late has been exceptional. Still only 20, Sunday is another test of Farrell's maturity and composure, although so far he has answered all the questions thrown at him. His midfield partner Billy Twelvetrees will also be under similar scrutiny after a promising debut, because he offers qualities at inside centre that England have lacked for some time - a markedly different player from when England last played a Six Nations match in Dublin and employed the battering ram that is Matt Banahan.
Head-to-head: A positive start for Jamie Heaslip to open his account as Ireland's permanent captain will have no doubt settled some nerves and silenced some doubters. Against England however, Heaslip will need to bring and give everything he has. His opposite man will be someone to whom the number eight shirt is fairly unfamiliar, Tom Wood. In outstanding form since his return from injury at the beginning of the season, Wood was one of England's top performers against New Zealand and Scotland. Despite few starts at number eight, Wood has the power and ability to handle the positional switch.
Recent results:
2012: England won 30-9 at Twickenham
2011: England won 20-9 in Dublin
2011: Ireland won 24-8 in Dublin
2010: Ireland won 20-16 at Twickenham
2009:Ireland won 14-13 in Dublin
2008: England won 33-10 at Twickenham
2007: Ireland won 43-13 in Dublin
2006: Ireland won 28-24 at Twickenham
2005: Ireland won 19-13 in Dublin
2004: Ireland won 19-13 at Twickenham
2003: England won 42-6 in Dublin
Prediction: This one is close. Ireland's home record against England - 2011's Rugby World Cup warm-up result aside - is exceptional over the last decade. The gaps between the two sides when it comes to the scrums, lineouts and breakdown are minimal, leaving it down to a missed kick from either Sexton or Farrell to separate them. Only a moment of magic will settle this and despite England's bright start under Stuart Lancaster, Ireland's home advantage could be the difference. Ireland by 5.
The teams:
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Craig Gilroy, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c), 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Donnacha Ryan, 4 Mike McCarthy , 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Donncha O'Callaghan, 20 Chris Henry, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ronan O'Gara, 23 Keith Earls.
England: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Brad Barritt, 12 Billy Twelvetrees, 11 Mike Brown, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Tom Wood, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 James Haskell, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Joe Marler.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Hartley, 17 David Wilson, 18 Mako Vunipola, 19 Courtney Lawes, 20 Thomas Waldrom, 21 Danny Care, 22 Toby Flood, 23 Manu Tuilagi.
Date: Sunday, 10 February
Venue: Aviva Stadium
Kick-off: 15:00 GMT
Referee: Jérôme Garces (France)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Pascal Gauzere (France)
Television match official: Iain Ramage (Scotland)
by Ben Coles
@bencoles_
Comments
rugbylover says...
My heart says England, but my head says - not yet.
Ireland - surely the unluckiest team of 2012 [that "only just" loss to NZ] - with home advantage, will probably do it.
Should be a cracker.
Posted 10:16 10th February 2013
heart_of_oak says...
not many weak points in the Ireland team. It's just the test that we need. As I said before, we need to win away from home regularly to prove we're really good. To be honest, we're not there yet. One or two selections are just plain wrong - Goode at FB in place of Brown and no Varndell - who by the way, APV1, scored again today as did Wade. Not picking Billy Vunipola at No 8 but shunting Tom Wood around. Elsewhere e.g. France, coaches are getting hammered for playing people out of position.
Because Ireland's players are on form and playing at home and there are very few weak links in their team, I think they will win this one but I think it'll be a lesson for Lancaster. He seems to have to learn the hard way e.g. the Strettle experiment went on too long. We all knew Strettle was not ready for test match rugby. Likewise the Waldrom experiment is going on too long. These decisions send all the wrong signals to the promising youngsters that we have.
Eventually Varndell or Wade will have to get picked but it's a shame it will take an unnecessarily long time.
Posted 00:21 10th February 2013
PatrickH says...
@ shoobydoo.
You're forgetting Ireland have an extra back row forward in O'Driscoll. And a bloody good one too!
Posted 23:39 09th February 2013
new_j4a says...
@TV addict, I want some of what you've been smoking.
Posted 17:00 09th February 2013
whatisthis says...
Sorry people. None of those players are true 7's no matter where they play for their clubs(btw not saying Ireland have one either) Perhaps haskell could be 8, he started there for wasps. The 7 issue isnt going to rear its ugly head in this game but in other games and teams who have good 7's then it could(Hooper-Australia in the Autumn).
Love morgan at 8 as well. Does what an 8 should. Fields the ball, runs back at pace and bumps of tacklers. Ireland pretty much have three 6's in the back row as well.
My Lions backrow would be 6.O'Brien, 7. Armitage, 8. Morgan. Wood/Robshaw on the bench. Maybe lacking a bit in height but Oz have rubbish 6's (Dave Dennis is terrible)at the mo and have 2 shorter stockier world class 7's that could start together(Hooper & Pocock).
Heaslip, does alot of tackling and ruck work but doesn't bump anyone in the tackle(bar one famous one against Ronan O'Doormat).
So, maybe armchair general your bad omens are even worse in this case. Two 666's against each other..Spooky eh???
Posted 14:26 09th February 2013
shrimps says...
@ makemehappy
they probably could have. then again, that's the problem with mr poite. cannot referee a scrum with any consistency. he must guess each scrum or makes assumptions about who is dominant or weak, but is often wrong. he has done this for some years. as for last year, well england were very good. rise of a new "golden generation"? i expect the same unless mr healy has learned to cope with pressure.
Posted 10:49 09th February 2013
ArmchairGeneral says...
Whatisthis: I think people are saying England forwards will dominate the game, not specifically the scrum. You're thinking old school but running forwards with pop passes and low error rate and penalty count is the New England. AB rugby: forwards with ball skills. Backs when the cracks emerge.
Posted 09:19 09th February 2013
ArmchairGeneral says...
Whatisthis: three sixes! That's the number of the beast! What with that and 36. It's looking like a demonic team!! Perhaps the white orcs thing is actually true! Only problem is that they are not three sixes.
Posted 09:13 09th February 2013
connaughtabu says...
At the end of the first scrum against Wales, I confidently declared that Ireland would win easy (got that bit wrong!). Why? Well we all know they managed to hold their own on that occasion and relaxed!
Ireland seems to be the only side to use the "choke tackle". On several occasions, last week the Welsh ball-carrier was isolated long for the turnover. Why don't others use it?
If England had Ireland's killer instinct, they would have scored 50+ points last week. Too often attacks broke down and they settled for penalty. Up the strike rate and I'm not sure Ireland could live with them.
I think the trimmed-down Morgan will be missed - he is a real No8, doing the hard stuff up front and carrying the ball fearlessly, he has an uncanny knack of being where the kicked ball lands
Not sure I ever saw 12trees before, he reminded me of Gusgott when he came on the scene - he looked relaxed on the ball, always the sign of a class player. Wonder if he will make it straight into the Lions like Guscott did, or will the old hands Darcy & BoD reveal some fatal flay in his play?
Of course, the Irish back 3 are so exciting - hopefully Gilroy will get the space to do some Shane-Williams jinking and swerving.
Saving the best till last, we do have Simon Zebo, the complete winger, even if do does wear his socks around his ankles! He is a beautifully balanced runner with speed and guile, he catches and kicks well and yes he can tackle! He does have the X factor - how many players could have flicked that ball back into hands at top speed? I put it down to time on the Gaelic football pitch?
Zebo could have played for France, by the way (French dad) - I wonder if he would make it over there? Would mean that the talented centre Fofana would not have to play on the wing!
Finally, who will win tomorrow - that will depend on the outcome of the first scrum, of course?
Eireann abu!
:-))
Posted 08:19 09th February 2013
MacTavish says...
Firstly, it is PR who have coined this within the article, but... probably with reason. 2nd game of the Six Nations and we are already talking about the Championship defining match. Really this should not be the case... which ultimately leads to us in the Southern Hemisphere undermining this Tournament. Honestly, what does it do for the tournament if one team has a grasp on the title second game in? Sure... its not a given, merely a possability. But it shouldnt be the case this early. Maybe arrogantly but this is why we see the Southern Hemisphere Tournament more robust for lack of a better word. Home and away against the best 3 teams in the world reflects and rewards the better team. Its not won in week two... Playing each other 2 or 3 times a season really does justify the winner honestly. Where as the Six Nations teams really only get one crack against each other. My Opinion, my 2 cents. After each of the 6 teams have played their 5 games, how about the top 3 go to a second round, 2 more games each, 3 more weeks, one against each other, adding to their points tally. Another 4 points up for grabs if you win both. That way at least every year the top 3 teams have played home and away vs the other 2... and more to the point making the title winner more deserving... Logistically, only three more weeks of competition and surely more rewarding for the winner?? Screw the clubs... yes easier said than done but how much would such a scenario add to the tournament? Would be a breath of fresh air to the Six Nations... Now.... for the awaited attack from the North on my suggestions... LOL.
Posted 06:56 09th February 2013
TVaddict says...
@whatisthis
Actually England are playing three players who play 7 for their clubs. So the breakdown shouldn't be a problem. All our forwards are mobile and great tacklers so no problems in defence there, the biggest problem is pace out wide which we can't match.
Here's my 'fun' prediction of the match:
First half to be full of running rugby, exciting stuff but no tries. Set pieces to be very even forcing both teams to play more positive rugby. Twelvetrees to run through D'Arcy a few times, and players like Wood and Robshaw making breaks through the heavy traffic. Zebo to shine but Gilroy to make a few unforced errors resulting in turnovers. However, these break just lead to couple of penalties each with England to go in as first half winners with a lead of 12-9.
Irish start the second half like mad men, hitting the ruck like they're trying to break peoples necks. Within the first 5 minutes Ireland score a try through some great linkage between Sexton and Zebo to make it 12-16. However, England keep their composure and get a few more penalties to make it 18-16. Around about the 60 minutes mark Ireland launch a counter attack from deep and score a try finished magnificently by Gilroy, 18-23. On come the England bench to great effect with Lawes and Tuilagi making a significant impact. Lots of pressure from England but only one penalty goes their way, 21-23 and things are getting tense. About the 70 minute mark D'Arcy's injury flares up again, meaning O'Gara coming on with Sexton moving to 12. Within the last few minutes Tuilagi smashes through a weak O'Gara tackle to get the winning try making it 28-23.
A fantastic win for England who go on to win the next two world cups while simultaneously winning the hearts of all Celtic rugby fans who rejoice in England's success as if it were their own. Or something like that. ;)
Posted 01:39 09th February 2013
whatisthis says...
@ noshmescrote...love the name. had to read it a couple of times but got it in the end.
I dnt see how englands pack is the dominant force everyone is making them out to be. I know that is what the english game is based on but this pack hasn't be proved at all. They have picked effectively three 6's in the backrow. plenty of power but very little guile.
Will they have the smarts to be the first to the tackle area and stop the choke tackle??? If englands scrum is the steamrollering force that its made out to be, will wood have the footwork skill to keep the ball at the back of the scrum??? Will this relatively untried second row really dominate the lineout or put in massive tackles??? Too many questions for me.
Ireland by 8...
Posted 23:20 08th February 2013
memor1 says...
Bookies have the match as almost evens. Which Ireland turns up will matter - a fired up Ireland playing as they are capable should win...
Posted 23:13 08th February 2013
shoobydo says...
Ireland have better backs but this English pack looks very effective without being flashy.
As the old saying goes, forwards win games and backs decide the score.
So my money's on England by 10
Posted 22:02 08th February 2013
ArmchairGeneral says...
England's recent record since 2003 against Ireland is a disgrace. If this team can't do it then they're just hype and Lancaster is no progress on Johnson, Ashton, Robinson. England must win or they are moving nowhere. If they can't reverse the tide vs Ireland what hope with the Sourhern Hem. This is a must win or they're a regular mediocre team.
Posted 21:41 08th February 2013
Waz4before says...
Ireland by 5, can't really argue with that - this one is very, very close and the key will be how this very young/inexperienced side perform away from home in a hostile environment. If they falter Ireland could run away with it and ireland by 5 ould quite easily become 20. This is a real test for England.
Posted 20:58 08th February 2013
Fonzarelli says...
Got to say that Vunipola being denied a place in the 23 by Waldrom is pretty negative, especially considering the relative work rates of the two players. Maybe Billy V is still struggling with the ankle knock he picked up against Newport Dragons.
Posted 20:24 08th February 2013
jmanngod says...
Ireland to bring the pretenders back down to earth.
Posted 19:50 08th February 2013
Lucasrg says...
I feel England could win this, close but possible.
Posted 19:26 08th February 2013
makemehappy says...
@Noshonmescrote - not a short memory - they didn't do well last year as you state against England and struggled clearly against Wales this year. So as I said there is little evidence. As a Welshman, I'd be delighted to see them hammer the English scrum!
Posted 18:40 08th February 2013