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Preview: Wales v Ireland

31st January 2013 22:14

Rob Kearney Ireland v Wales Six Nations 2012

The return: Rob Kearney

Never short of drama in recent years, Wales host Ireland desperate to end their recent losing run of seven consecutive defeats.

Last year's encounter between the two sides in Dublin was a tale of five tries, two tip-tackles of varying severity, and a 79th minute penalty from Leigh Halfpenny to set Wales on their way towards a third Grand Slam in seven years.

Go back a year earlier and the contentious 'ballgate' incident that led to a try for Mike Phillips was another incident that left Irish fans fuming. There is no love lost between these two Celtic brothers.

Focusing on Wales, Rob Howley's coaching record as the interim leader of his country reads painfully - with seven losses out of seven matches in charge. It does not however tell the full story.

In many ways their most recent loss to Australia is an example of how Wales have failed to turn narrow margins in their favour, a far cry from Halfpenny's penalty against Ireland or Scott Williams try at Twickenham last year.

Key players from the Grand Slam side who will be missing for either all or part of this year's campaign include Bradley Davies, Luke Charteris, Ryan Jones, Alun-Wyn Jones and last year's player of the championship Dan Lydiate - key personnel whose absence has left Wales worryingly short at lock.

It means that Andrew Coombs, a converted back-row from the Dragons, will make his debut against Ireland with Harlequins second-row Olly Kohn ready to come off the bench. Neither would have been given the slightest consideration a year ago, yet needs must and Wales need locks to challenge a competitive Irish line-out.

Their talented backline including George North, Alex Cuthbert and Jonathan Davies all have the potential to cut loose, but not if they are starved of possession.

As for Ireland, with France and England to come at home later in the tournament, winning in Cardiff is pivotal if they have any hope of winning a first title since 2009.

The guard is most certainly changing, exemplified by the likes of Peter O'Mahony, Craig Gilroy and a new captain in Jamie Heaslip.

November's heavy win over Argentina proved what Ireland can do when they get it right, rather than glossing over their problems as critics have suggested. The return of Leinster and potential Lions trio Rob Kearney, Sean O'Brien and Brian O'Driscoll to the national side will be a significant boost for coach Declan Kidney.

Prayers will have already been said regarding the fitness of Mike Ross but keep him fit and Ireland have as competitive a scrum as any side. It's when you take him away that the problems begin.

Ones to watch:

For Wales: The only uncapped player in the Wales starting XV, all eyes will be on Andrew Coombs when the lock runs out in Cardiff. A latecomer to Test rugby at 28, Howley has described him as "excellent in the line-out" and with a work-rate that is "second to none." With more established stars gradually set to return from injury, this is Coombs' chance to make an impression. The other key figure will be Dan Biggar. Hounded by criticism throughout his career, the Osprey is producing his best rugby and remarkably is still only 23. With Rhys Priestland sidelined, Biggar must take his chance.

For Ireland: The first new Irish captain in a Six Nations since 2003, Jamie Heaslip has a fair bit of pressure on his shoulders in trying to emulate the Irish great O'Driscoll. But, O'Driscoll cannot go on forever and Ireland need to look forward. Two victories and a loss under Heaslip's leadership in November have been enough to convince Kidney to give him the role permanently, and his enthusiasm for the role is undeniable. Surrounded by experience, it may even see Heaslip produce his best form. Elsewhere, the dual wing threat of Craig Gilroy and Simon Zebo could light up the championship and will cause Wales problems.

Head-to-head: The battle between two potential Lions. Howley has highlighted the Welsh scrum as a strength and for that to be proved right, Adam Jones will have to be superior against Cian Healy. For all his power and presence around the park, doubts linger in some circles over Healy's scrummaging ability against the best. If Healy can blunt the Welsh weapon, Ireland's chances will be strengthened.

Recent results:

2012: Wales won 23-21 in Dublin
2011: Wales won 22-10 in Wellington
2011: Wales won 19-13 in Cardiff
2010: Ireland won 27-12 in Dublin
2009:Ireland won 17-15 in Cardiff
2008: Wales won 16-12 in Dublin
2007: Ireland won 19-9 in Cardiff
2006: Ireland won 31-5 in Dublin
2005: Wales won 32-20 in Cardiff
2004: Ireland won 36-15 in Dublin
2003: Ireland won 35-12 in Dublin

Prediction: The problem with seven losses on the bounce is that it breeds no momentum and no confidence. Wales are a better team than their record suggests, but the question is whether they believe it. Easing the line-out worries with Aaron Shingler deprives them of Justin Tipuric's ability at the breakdown, meaning they must benefit from the scrum. Ireland hold more cards and have Sexton at the helm. A narrow margin as ever, but an Irish win in Cardiff. Ireland by 6.

The teams:

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Andrew Coombs, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Craig Mitchell, 19 Olly Kohn, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 James Hook, 23 Scott Williams.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Craig Gilroy, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Donncha O'Callaghan, 20 Chris Henry, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ronan O'Gara, 23 Keith Earls.

Date: Saturday, 2 February
Venue: Millennium Stadium
Kick-off: 13:30 GMT
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant referees: Jaco Peyper (South Africa), Pascal Gauzere (France)
Television match official: Graham Hughes (England)

by Ben Coles
@bencoles_

Comments

Curates_Egg says...

Hey Norm, I am looking forward to seeing Gilroy. I thought he should get his chance long before now: he is a really exciting runner. I am not "so wrong about his defense" though. He is not that weak technically but he is very small and I do fear if North targets him. Lets see in the end who is "so wrong", sigh.

As for your comment about trolls - probably not directed to me, but anyway - it would take one to know one. You spout an awful lot of provocative mush and seem to have a massive chip in your Ulster shoulder.

Get over it and enjoy the sport a bit more: and I say that as someone who thinks Ulster has been sold short by the current Irish management for a couple of seasons.

Posted 12:35 02nd February 2013

Cdn_content says...

I still can't believe that after all if these years d'arcy is the best Ireland can do at 12. He offers no threat to break the line wih the ball in hand and sparks no fear in Davies nor Roberts I'd imagine.

Posted 01:50 02nd February 2013

Pembs says...

Im pretty sure this is an outlet for the constant molestations and beatings that FISH gets on a daily basis. He's just angry at the world because he's always the one in the middle at bukakke parties

Posted 22:56 01st February 2013

norm says...

3in4 if your going to steal my line don't attach it to such bile and drivel.

All

Internet sites attract trolls this one doesn't represent the Irish rugby fan.

Curates egg

You are so wrong on gilroy's defence mate.

Posted 22:02 01st February 2013

Kent says...

Well we've got 2 great wingers in North and Cuthbert - balanced by a big girl at scrum half.

We've got a roof though

Posted 17:15 01st February 2013

kennyisgay says...

Easy game for Wales. 10 of these leprechauns got shat on 60 nil last June

Posted 16:43 01st February 2013

decky100 says...

@FISH you're right mate, let's just cancel the competition..

Posted 16:34 01st February 2013

blametheref says...

With the players Ireland have, and having both France and England at home the only reason Kidney should keep his job is if Ireland win The Grand Slam...As a supporter it is what I expect this year with all these advantages, why the hell do we not hear from Kidney and the Irish team that The Gran Slam is their only goal anything else is failure, it amazes and frustrates me we don't have the right mindset and why we underachieve, all we hear is Lions talk, a complete distraction in my view!!...If it was any Southern Hemisphere team competing in the 6 Nations their only goal would be winning The Grand Slam, any other result would be a complete failure. Bloody Lions!!!

Posted 16:22 01st February 2013

highschool says...

Wales v Ireland has now become a grudge match. Who will win this years contest? Well given how close all the previous matches have been it comes down to a little bit of luck. Wales have had the luck in the last two 6 Nation matches (ball gate + Tip Tackle) The World Cup game Wales won no contest. Roof closed could be in Irelands favour, less ball dropping, more ball running play but then again home advantage means a lot. Looking forward to BOD giving it one last hoorah and hopefully Zebo and Gilroy polishing off with some tries. Losing the first game ruins the rest of the 6 nations so heres hoping for a great game, good ref and from my point of view an Ireland win.

Posted 16:21 01st February 2013

rugby_rockstar says...

I think Fish has a very small....

Posted 16:08 01st February 2013

melkdave says...

Hoping its going to be the cracking game it always is first off.Also both sides have a few ??? against them imo.Ireland will /are buyeod up by their victory over Argentina,but have stuggled to put good performances together consistently.While Wales will be looking to rebuild confidance and get any forward momemtum.Overall i think Ireland have a very slender edge,and should nick it by 3-6 points,but if Wales get any parity in the forwards it could go either way.

Posted 15:53 01st February 2013

FISH says...

and so the race to be crowned the most mediocre team in the world begins......yay for the 6 nations

Posted 15:31 01st February 2013

noord_transvaal says...

Think 3 in 4 might be related to jonesy2. Same kind of ignorant twaddle. Go ireland!

Posted 15:22 01st February 2013

ArmchairGeneral says...

Dougie: yes Toner. And... Lets not sterilise the banter with too much correctness. No harm in a bit of "bloody Taff" stuff. I'm sure it's a bit of love/hate from 3in4. I hope the Taffs and Paddies pulverise each other whilst we send the pesky Scots homeward te think again.

Posted 14:52 01st February 2013

dafyddg84 says...

@mayhem, "Given to you with a missed kick"? Rebuttal: 2012 slam given to you by an AR error which only left B Davies on a yellow for his tip tackle and then a harsh yellow for a 'tip' by Fez...teams ride their luck. our grand slam came no less down to such fortuitous moments of luck than yours have.

Posted 14:45 01st February 2013

cliffguy says...

3in4, nice gentle touch of racism coming into your comments! But you Irish need to get over that inferiority complex. It's what makes you such 'nearly men', what with one Grand Slam in God knows how many years. Wales 3 in the last 7 sound pretty good, doesn't it! I won't even mention the World Cup quarter-finals..........

Posted 14:29 01st February 2013

Noshonmescrote says...

Should be cracking!

Posted 13:46 01st February 2013

Dougie says...

3in4, who would you have on the bench ahead of O'Callaghan? Toner? O'Callaghan has been playing superb rugby this season and fully deserves his place.

Posted 13:34 01st February 2013

PontySurrey says...

Ah, the 6Nations. Love how it brings out the best in people. Luckliy people like 3in4says don't actually come to matches and flaunt their irrational hatred. The game really doesn't need that sort of bigot.

Posted 13:26 01st February 2013

mayhem says...

3in4, bitter much? Welsh arrogance? 3 Grand slams means they can back it up albeit struggling for form at moment. And your Grand Slam? Given to you with a missed kick. shut up please

Posted 12:05 01st February 2013

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