Counter-attacking danger: Stuart Hogg
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Even victory over Scotland in Paris on Saturday might not be enough for France to avoid the ignominy of a first wooden spoon since 1999.
France's final position could well rely on the result in Rome earlier in the day. If Italy beat injury-stricken Ireland by a narrow margin - which is quite possible - then France will have to rack up a massive winning margin to avoid finishing below the Irish on points difference. With cold and wet conditions expected in Paris, that seems unlikely.
But Philippe Saint-André's troops will not even be considering those permutations as the task of simply beating the rejuvenated Scots is tough enough in itself to merit their sole attention.
Whatever happens, Scotland have already secured their best finish in the competition since 2006. After a brave fightback to edge Ireland at Murrayfield, coach Scott Johnson feels they "got conned" by the officiating against Wales last week when a win would have kept them in contention for the title.
The truth is, however, that as much as the Scots have improved they haven't done enough to convince anyone that they're genuine title contenders. You'd be hard-pressed to find a pundit who would bet against the hosts in the French capital, where Les Bleus have lost just twice to Scotland in over 40 years. (Scotland's only victory at the Stade de France was in 1999).
All the pressure will be on pre-tournament favourites France, who have been wooden spooners just once since 1969, yet PSA insists his job is not under threat - irrespective of Saturday's result. He's got enough friends in the right places to make sure he stays put, but there is a growing number of French fans who have tired of France's lack of cohesion.
The stats don't paint a pretty picture and suggest that individual talents are being let down by a collective failure to convert opportunities. France have beaten 16.3 defenders per game after four rounds, more than any other side, yet they have scored just four tries.
A number a former French internationals have bemoaned their team's apparent lack of enthusiasm and failure to use the width of the field but they shouldn't expect a free-running display this weekend.
A thick layer of snow over Paris has disrupted the home side' preparations and with heavy rain expected at kick-off, PSA has picked a side with the emphasis on power, not guile.
If the match turns into an arm-wrestle, it could play into Scotland's hands. Unlike their hosts, no questions have been asked over their motivation to pull up their sleeves and bleed for the badge on their chests.
It's more likely to be brutal than pretty in Paris.
Players to watch:
For France: The focal point of criticism from both inside and outside France has been fly-half Frederic Michalak who has retained his starting berth despite a few below-par performances. Saint-André has confirmed that he will continue as France's first-choice goal-kicker. France have the Championships' worst goal-kicking accuracy rate, slotting just 61 percent of their efforts at the posts (Michalak with 8/12 and Morgan Parra with 3/6). Scotland have been the most ill-disciplined side in the tournament, conceding 65 penalties so far, so Michalak should have plenty of chances to be the hero. If he can't find his range, then François Trinh-Duc's ability to take the ball to, and over, the gainline may be needed. 21-year-old New Caledonia-born man mountain Sebastien Vahaamahina, who made an impact when he came on during the second half against Ireland, gets his first start. The setting seems ideal for a big, hard-hitting lock to make his presence felt.
For Scotland: With the weather set to make handling difficult, kicking at goal will be crucial. Scotland have the best goal-kicking accuracy in the championship, converting 83 percent of their shots at goal. Greig Laidlaw is the tournament's second best marksman with 19 from 22 attempts at posts. 22-year-old Edinburgh lock Grant Gilchrist will win his first cap for Scotland, replacing the injured Richie Gray. Those are big boots to fill. Lots of kicking should give Stuart Hogg plenty of counter-attacking opportunities. Currently sharing the lead in the try-scoring table, his role will be vital for the visitors.
Head-to-head: We're in for a clash between two outstanding back rows. Louis Picamoles is having a standout tournament, leading all comers in terms of metres gained, clean breaks and defenders beaten. Kelly Brown has been the top tackler this campaign with 52 and also leads all others in terms of turnovers won with seven. Thierry Dusautoir has been given the additional responsibility of calling France's line-outs. Antonie Claassen makes his first start while Perpignan's Alasdair Strokosch returns from injury, refreshed a raring to go.
Previous results:
2012: France won 23-17 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2011: France won 34-21 at Stade de France, Paris
2010: France won 18-9 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2009: France won 22-13 at Stade de France, Paris
2008: France won 27-6 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2007: France won 46-19 at Stade de France, Paris
2006: Scotland won 20-16 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2005: France won 16-9 at Stade de France, Paris
2004: France won 31-0 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2003: France won 51-9 at Stadium Australia, Sydney (RWC)
2003: France won 38-3 at Stade de France, Paris
2002: France won 22-10 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2001: France won 16-6 at Stade de France, Paris
2000: France won 28-16 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Prediction: France's last Six Nations win came against Scotland - 23-17 at Murrayfield in Round Two last year - making their seven-game winless run their worst in the tournament since 1927. Scotland's only win in their last 16 away games in the Six Nations was at Croke Park back in 2010. We reckon France should be able to turn up the intensity enough to get the job done. France by eight points.
The teams:
France: 15 Yoann Huget, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Maxime Médard, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Thierry Dusautoir, 6 Antonie Claassen, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Thomas Domingo.
Replacements: 16 Guilhem Guirado, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Luc Ducalcon, 19 Christophe Samson, 20 Yannick Nyanga, 21 Maxime Machenaud, 22 François Trinh-Duc, 23 Florian Fritz or Gael Fickou.
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Sean Lamont, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Duncan Weir, 9 Greig Laidlaw, 8 Johnnie Beattie, 7 Kelly Brown, 6 Alasdair Strokosch, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Ryan Grant.
Replacements: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Moray Low, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Alastair Kellock, 20 Ryan Wilson, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Ruaridh Jackson, 23 Max Evans.
Date: Saturday, 16 March
Venue: Stade de France, Paris
Kick-off: 22:00 local (20:00 GMT)
Weather: Cold and very wet. 6°C with heavy rain.
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: George Clancy (Ireland), Lourens van der Merwe (South Africa)
Comments
Iyhel says...
Vahaamahina, Dusautoir, Nyanga, Fofana, Fickou... All tall with blond or light red hair... No doubt they feel Celtic or Germanic or whatever lol!
Some water under the bridge since the last great invasions, ain't it? So who cares?!
Culturally speaking, indeed French is a Latin language and so is supposed to be our temperament and our way of life so if you have to ethnicise everything, Latin seems apt.
Posted 16:47 16th March 2013
atg77 says...
The Franks were a west Germanic tribal confederation who conquered the Roman province of Gaul. The modern day French are predominantly decended from the Gallo-Roman peoples of that province, who were esentially Romanised celts (in langauge and partially in culture at least). While there were some Franks left behind, the French are not Franks. Basically, the modern French are more celtic than anything else. "France" comes from the name "West Francia" - the western part of the Carolingian empire which was partitioned in 843 in the treaty of Verdun. East Francia was what is now modern day Germany and Middle Francia was northen Italy. Together with West Francia, all three once formed the first German empire.
The inconvienient truth for some...
Posted 13:21 16th March 2013
carpelone says...
Melkdave
Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres, quarum unam incolunt Belgae, aliam Aquitani, tertiam qui ipsorum lingua Celtae, nostra Galli appellantur.
This is the beginning of the "De Bello Gallico", written by Julius Ceasar. Before the Franks went in, the majority of Gallia (France) was Celtic.
Either Celtic or Germans, French are not Latin, even though they speak a Latin language.
Posted 12:14 16th March 2013
Iyhel says...
I don't care who wins, I just hope it won't be too much boring. I'm sure the Scots will come out and play with all their heart, as they usually do, so if only the French could play at least during 40 min...
Posted 00:00 16th March 2013
melkdave says...
Well im hoping Scotland can do it ,wont be easy,but i believe its possible.So com'on boyyyyyyyys
@Carpelone
The FRANKS where a germanic tribe not celtic ,sorry to burst your bibble .
Posted 23:13 15th March 2013
Lucasrg says...
France by 15 I say.
@carpelone I don't want to start a history of French invasions...cheeky!
Posted 22:41 15th March 2013
carpelone says...
Go the lads!! Conquer Paris and win this Celtic derby.
Yes, you understood correctly, French are not Latin.
Posted 13:57 15th March 2013
gozar2013 says...
I hate to say it but I hope Scotland win this game, and the only reason I say this is that might it be the nail in the coffin for Saint Andre. I can only hope if France loose they get rid of this fool before its to late.
Posted 10:55 15th March 2013
rugby_rockstar says...
The thing is that everyone is going to be so hammered out of their skull by the time this match kicks off that we'll just have to read PR's match report to find out what actually happened.
France to win, Scotland haven't really imposed themselves in their home games so how on earth they'll going to beat up a french pack in paris is beyond me. Might be boring due to the forecast heavy rain and cold temperatures, but france will do enough. In fact maybe being hammered out of your skull is the best way to watch this match.
Posted 10:55 15th March 2013
mlbp says...
Let's see if France can salvage some pride after a horrendous tournament.
I think that the 6 nations tournament is becoming more and more of a nuisance for the French as years go by. Actually, international rugby looks like a bit of a bother for them. The end of year tour is poor because some players can't join it as they are still playing the finals of the Top14, and the ones that can are carrying so many knocks or have so little in their tanks that there's nothing for the management to try or test or experiment.
The only good moment for the French to play test matches is in November when the players are still healthy. February is too far into the season for any decent form to show.
It looked at the beginning of the tournament as if the players were not into the mood of playing for their country and that showed against Italy. Then it was all a snowballing effect against Wales, as the team didn't show any inventiveness or energy. After that, you have to take into account the errors by the coaches when substituting the full front row and Nyanga against England (in my opinion that is what cost France most of the result, more than bringing on Michalak; France was competing up front but Debaty and Ducalcon offered nothing and England was dominant and got good ball and shut France down). This shows Saint Andre was lost.
Against Ireland it was the same: a team without confidence and suffering lack of a convincing game plan for the attrocious conditions.
The strongest force in the universe can be inertia. France, as Wales did, seems to have started a downward spiral. Wales were not as bad (overrated maybe they were, but not so bad either). France were not so good in November and now they are not so bad. It's time to stop the downward movement and stop that inertial spin. Scotland can be the team against which they can regain their mojo.
Posted 09:13 15th March 2013
JamieTheProp says...
I don't often say this - but come on Scotland!
I think France may be a little too strong - but I hope not!
Posted 08:22 15th March 2013