Under pressure: Declan Kidney and Phillipe Saint-André
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Two coaches under massive pressure will send their troops into battle in Dublin on Saturday as France seek their first win in 2013 while Ireland try to bounce back from a title-hope-ending loss at Murrayfield.
The stats don't look good for either side. Consecutive Championship losses for Ireland - for the first time since 2008 - have added impetus to the growing calls from high-profile Irish rugby figures for Declan Kidney to be axed after this campaign.
France, meanwhile, are anxious to end their longest Five/Six Nations winless streak (six games) in 55 years and Phillipe Saint-André is facing the very real prospect of eating his humble pie with a wooden spoon. Les Bleus have not gone seven games without a win in the tournament since 1927!
So to say the pressure is on would be an understatement. Thierry Dusautoir's comments that France had to win "no matter the cost" with his coach adding they would "happily sign for a 3-0 victory" are illustrations the desperation the visitors' camp.
While he grapples with never-ending injury woes, Kidney says he isn't thinking past this weekend but it's impossible to believe that the prospect of not having his contract renewed when it expires in a fortnight isn't playing on his mind. The fact that Ireland have won just one of their last 13 games against the French will not be helping him sleep either. His bizarre, and contradictory, statements this week suggest that the pressure is telling.
Both sets of fans have taken issue with their respective coach's choices at fly-half (though, with the exception of Steve Hansen, how many coaches that can say honestly they're in a different position?)
France were rather poor in their first two games with Fred Michalak driving the bus. They then produced their best hour of rugby when Francois Trinh-Duc started, only to fall apart when Michalak returned in the last half-hour at Twickenham. I'm not about to jump on the Michalak-bashing bandwagon because I reckon he IS a great player but even I'm amongst those wondering exactly what Trinh-Duc did merit being dropped. Similarly, Mathieu Bastareaud, who has beaten more tacklers than any other player in the tournament, despite only playing 20 minutes against Italy, also finds himself relegated to the woodwork. Likewise, I'm a fan of Florian Fritz, but after his subdued performances against in Rome and Paris, I don't really understand why he's starting in Dublin.
Ireland's fly-half issues have been of a very different nature and most critics have welcomed Kidney's courage in finally putting the country's most capped player out to pasture despite his first-choice pivot being ruled out by injury. But the way he handled the doubt surrounding Paddy Jackson's fitness for this weekend bordered on farcical, giving four different answers across three separate media briefings as to who will would wear the 10 jersey at Lansdowne Road. First he confirmed Jackson would start, but then said that a decision between who of Jackson and Ian Madigan would be given the nod would be made late on Tuesday. A few minutes later the call had been put back to Thursday and finally he announced that he knew the identity of his fly-half, but he wanted to speak to the two players first before making his choice public. Feeling the heat then are we, Declan?
Having passed a fitness test, Jackson will direct traffic for the men in green and Irish fans will pray that those on his outside will do a better job of converting opportunities after an unholy amount of possession and territory ended up being wasted at Murrayfield. An improvement by Jackson from the kicking tee would help too. Ireland have missed fewer tackles than any other side this season but they have failed to really fire on attack since those blistering first 43 minutes against Wales.
The last quarter has been France's biggest issue. They failed to up the tempo enough when trailing in Rome, there was a fateful lapse in defence in the dying minutes in Paris and the French bench turned the game in the wrong direction at Twickenham. The impact of the replacements, or lack thereof, is a real concern and PSA needs to consider the timing of his changes more carefully.
Considering the stakes, we shouldn't expect an open, free-running game. Margins at this level are incredibly small and, dramatic as it may sound, a tiny mistake on Saturday could cost someone their job.
Who would want to be an international coach? Not me.
Players to watch:
For Ireland: He's a favourite target for critics but Keith Earls has more clean breaks to his name (four) than any other player after three rounds. The Irish front row of Cian Healy, Rory Best and Mike Ross will combine in the for the 20th time on Saturday, equalling Shane Byrne, John Hayes and Reggie Corrigan's record for Ireland. Healy can consider himself lucky to be available after getting off his suspension on a technicality. But the man under the microscope is Paddy Jackson. Given the drama of this week's events, another poor performance is set to make headlines.
For France: Full-back Yoann Huget has evaded 10 tackles so far in the tournament, better than any other player (bar Bastareaud) in the tournament . He is joined in an all-Toulouse back three by Vincent Clerc and Maxime Médard. Clerc has scored eight tries in ten Tests against Ireland, equalling the record for any country against Ireland. He is now France's third most capped winger (behind Philippe Saint-André and Christophe Dominici). Médard makes his first start in over a year and his first on the wing since 2011, when he scored a try against Ireland at this venue. Morgan Parra wins his 50th cap for France but it's only his second alongside Frederic Michalak, who has never lost against Ireland in seven Tests.
Head-to-head: Modern rugby often revolves around the battle between the loose forwards. Sean O'Brien has made more carries (44) than anyone else but second to him is France number eight Louis Picamoles (41). Jamie Heaslip is due a captain's innings after a poor campaign so far while Thierry Dusautoir is the championship's best tackler. The tussle between of the two relatively inexperienced second rows could be interesting. Donnacha Ryan has won more line-outs (14) than any other player after three rounds, whilst Yoann Maestri is joint-second with 13.
Previous results:
2012:17-17 draw at Stade de France, Paris
2011:France won 26-22 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2011:France won 19-12 at Stade Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux
2011:France won 25-22 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2010:France won 33-10 at Stade de France, Paris
2009: Ireland won 30-21 at Croke Park, Dublin
2008: France won 26-21 at Stade de France, Paris
2007: France won 25-3 at Stade de France, Paris (RWC)
2007: France won 20-17 at Croke Park, Dublin
2006: France won 43-31 at Stade de France, Paris
2005: France won 26-19 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2004: France won 35-17 at Stade de France, Paris
2003: France won 43-21 at Colonial Stadium, Melbourne (RWC)
Prediction: Ireland have not lost three in a row in a single championship since 1998. France have lost their last three Test matches but have not lost four in a row since 1989. It's a tough one to call but on the basis of France's first hour at Twickenham we think they have just have the edge. Don't bet your house either way. France by less than five points
The teams:
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c) 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Donnacha Ryan, 4 Mike McCarthy, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 David Kilcoyne, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Donnacha O'Callaghan, 20 Iain Henderson, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Luke Fitzgerald.
France: 15 Yoann Huget, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 Florian Fritz, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Maxime Medard, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Thierry Dusautoir, 6 Yannick Nyanga, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Christophe Samson, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Thomas Domingo.
Replacements: 16 Guilhem Guirado, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Luc Ducalcon, 19 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 20 Antonie Claassen, 21 Maxime Machenaud, 22 Francois Trinh-Duc, 23 Mathieu Bastareaud.
Date: March 9
Kick-off: 17:00
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Weather: 6deg C . Light rain (it's Dublin, did you expect anything else?)
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Greg Garner (England)
Television match official: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)
By Ross Hastie
Comments
TVaddict says...
French forward power to win this one I think.
Posted 08:15 09th March 2013
tellitlikeitis says...
was the author molested by Kidney or something? Jesus, talk about meow. Get over yourself.
Posted 23:43 08th March 2013
mcdb06 says...
@ Derrynane
In fairness Nagle has struggled with injury over the last couple of seasons and when he has played he's been average. Dave Foley is a great player, i think he'll eclipse Nagle as the new form 2nd row in Munster. But i agree that they need to give these guys starts
Posted 20:53 08th March 2013
fakealien says...
3in4 you are a tool. I suppose you'd prefer to have every Leinster player on the team
Posted 20:18 08th March 2013
fakealien says...
I felt I had to register to say 3in4 is a tool. Provincial bias has no place when picking for your national team
Posted 20:16 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
Front row battle:
Mas and Domingo have the upper hand in scrums and open play.
Best and Kayzer tie in the loose.
We'll see what happens with their lineout throws, maybe Best is more reliable. France has the better set scrum. If PSA starts substituting players for no reason around the 50th minute, then things can definitely turn the other way round. Debaty and Ducalcon are miles behind Domingo and Mas.
Locks: Maestri and Samson are big and mobile, but Maestri looks a bit tired. I'd say they are stronger than Ryan and McCarthy anyway.
Posted 20:04 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
Backrow:
Dusautoir will have to watch out for O'Brien's runs.
Nyanga's mobility will prove difficult for Ireland; Picamoles is no match for Heaslip, whose dip in form is more than worrying; it'll all depend on O'Brien's impact as a ball-carrier, but France look dominant in the scrum and the forward battle.
Posted 20:03 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
Parra vs. Murray:
Parra tends to play slowly at times.
If France win quick ball and Parra mixes box kicks, short passes to Picamoles or other strong ball carriers round the fringes and opening the game to Michalak, then Murray is in for a nightmare.
It'll all depend on how the French forwards win their own ball.
Murray may want to keep things tight with short passes to O'Brien and Heaslip and garryowens if the pitch is wet and France start dropping high balls.
Posted 20:03 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
Jackson vs. Michalak:
Freddie on form has no match in Europe. He can make the right tactical decisions and reads the game well, but he may be too tired after a gruelling season in the SH. He's definitely the best French fly-half (he needs to be given confidence, that's all).
Jackson has a point to prove, but so does Freddie. He may be a little green (no pun intended) and France can capitalize on that.
Posted 20:00 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
Fofana-Fritz vs. Marshall-O'Driscoll:
Exciting match-up between two rising stars wearing 12 and two all-rounders wearing 13. O'Driscoll has the upper hand over Fritz, who will have to tackle like hell all match. Fritz's passes are few and far between and maybe O'Driscoll will be quick to read and intercept them.
Posted 19:59 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
Match-ups:
Back three:
Huget is the find of the tournament. He's a strong ball carrier and was quite safe under the high ball.
He's more than a decent tackler and with a good boot for clearing kicks. His positional play has surprised me.
Kearney on form is one of the best 15's in the business, but now he is under par.
We'll see how the full backs cope with the weather conditions.
Gilroy will suffer against Clerc and Medard (if fully fit) is no match for Earls; on paper France have the edge.
Posted 19:57 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
France vs. Ireland match ups:
Posted 19:55 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
If PSA doesn't start to substitute players following a pre-programmed script then France will win this one. Against England there was no reason for taking off the front row (who were holding their ground fiercely) and bringing on substitutes that aren't up to the standard of the intensity of the match. For me it was lack of dominance or parity up front that made France struggle and any fly-half would suffer without a dominant forward pack. Michalak was not guilty of the French loss. Also bringing on Gunther when Nyanga was sublime... I cannot understand why all the guys on the bench have to have a go. Fresh legs are nothing without the intensity of the match. Players come onto the pitch when the battle is on and they take time to warm up.
I would love to see a team playing the full 80 minutes without substitutions. Maybe France has a problem with their match fitness, as kiwirooster claims. Does it have to do with the anti-doping regulations in France?
Posted 19:46 08th March 2013
mlbp says...
I can see France winning this match. They are not as bad as their results show. Against Italy it was a problem of attitude and indolence. Against Wales it was a problem of lack of confidence. Against England it was the bad decisions made by PSA when substituting players rather than their game. The talent is there and it will show sooner or later. I am afraid Ireland will suffer the consequences because France will fire on all cylinders this time.
Posted 19:36 08th March 2013
Flying_Dutchie says...
Steve Walsh is from NZ!!!
Posted 19:05 08th March 2013
Dropgoal says...
Can Paddy Jackson deliver the goods, that is up for debate. If he can't find his A game out of the gate let's hope DK has him out of there by HT and Madigan gets his chance. Madigan has the ability to fire up this Irish back line with his lightening breaks laser boot. This one is hard to call. France has won 12 of the last 13 games against Ireland and drawn the last. My heart as always is with Ireland but my money will stay in my pocket on this one.
Posted 18:42 08th March 2013
Ulsterman1999 says...
Jackson at 10 is the right choice. He is an accomplished footballer and links well with Marshall in the midfield. If we are serious about evolving our style of play from outright conservatism to a more creative, "heads up" style of game then we need to play players of Jackson¿s skillset.
He needs time and experience playing international rugby. Yes, last time round his nerves showed, but I would also highlight the comments made by Andy Nicoll made after the Scotland game. Nicoll played against O'Gara when he received his first cap. He commented on how O'Gara's first game was far from perfect and how on occasions his nerves got the better of him.
O'Gara had a poor debut, but yet went on to be one of the greatest no. 10s Ireland has ever produced. The management showed faith in him during those early stages. They backed him. We all did. We have to do the same with Jackson. He's a talented footballer. He's delivered. Ulster are joint top points scorers in the Rabo. Most of the creativity which resulted in those scores came from Jackson.
Posted 18:37 08th March 2013
Peachlegs says...
I hate the anti Jackson posts! The kid is 21 and is coming in with no international experience behind him and not kicking regularly for ulster so it's big pressure throwing him in at the deep end to be all things to all people! His learning curve is not through appearances from the bench but straight in starting and under continuous public scrutiny. He oozes class with ball in hand and has great game management skills, he simpy doesn't have the big game experience of kicking from the tee which he is hopefully getting now therefore.....give the guy a chance and back him! Its unreal how quickly people are writing him off! And for all those calling for madigan this madagin that....the boys undoubtedly talented but doesn't start for Leinster and has little to no European experience so how can he start...if he came in and didn't perform that's another young talented out halfs confidence dented!GET BEHIND THE YOUNSTERS instead of destroying them (like the idiot stag who says he won't watch the game due to Jackson starting!) there rant over!
Posted 17:37 08th March 2013
papachinzo says...
I think all Irish fans will be cheering for France and all the French for the Irish...
This 6 Nations should be a write off !!!
Posted 17:34 08th March 2013
expat2 says...
@ carpelone
You miss my point. I am not commenting on the foreigners playing for these countries (too much talk on that already in this site!), but rather the fact that the club sides in these countries are using too many foreign players and not gievn any of their young talent chance to play senior rugby. It's no wonder they then battle with depth!
Posted 17:31 08th March 2013