Back at Twickenham: Dan Carter
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England will conclude a frustrating November at Twickenham when they face world champions New Zealand on Saturday.
With a comfortable win as expected under their belts against Fiji, England went into their matches against Australia and South Africa with a sense of optimism and quiet confidence.
Instead, they have emerged a fortnight later aware of their deficiencies and with their captain under pressure following a series of costly calls at key moments against the Wallabies and Springboks. Many felt before November that England were on their way up. The last three weeks have proven that there is still plenty for them to learn.
Who better to provide a rugby masterclass than New Zealand? Unbeaten in 2012 with 12 wins and one draw against Australia, they are playing at an astonishing level even by their own imperious standards.
Young blood in Aaron Smith, Brodie Retallick, Luke Romano and Julian Savea have eased into the starting XV without any concern, assuring that this All Blacks side did not peak when they finally recaptured the Rugby World Cup last October. If anything they have improved; stronger, faster and more clinical than that trophy-winning side.
England however are not without their own talents. Chris Robshaw's decision-making in recent weeks may be under the spotlight but his dedication and work-rate cannot be questioned. Alex Goode has shown that he can keep defences guessing, whilst Manu Tuilagi remains a struggle to contain.
Alex Corbisiero's return against South Africa highlighted that he is England's most prolific loosehead, although the interpretation of the scrums left something to be desired. Joe Launchbury has taken to Test rugby well and will no doubt fulfil a childhood dream of facing New Zealand when he runs out on Saturday.
Too much about England however remains uncertain. Does Brad Barritt do enough going forward? Can Tom Youngs rediscover the accuracy at the line-out that he had against Australia but eluded him against South Africa? Players who previously have enjoyed great highs for England - Chris Ashton in particular - appear far from their devastating best, their confidence misplaced.
That is something you cannot say about the All Blacks. Confidence has never been an issue and when you have 788 caps in your squad - it shouldn't be. Dan Carter (93) and Richie McCaw (115) have more than England's whole side put together (206).
The incident with Andrew Hore against Wales though has left New Zealand embarrassed according to Steve Hansen. On Saturday they will look to emphasise once again that they are the greatest rugby side on the planet, not a team that wins by thuggery.
When you possess the greatest skill set, set-piece, squad and attacking threats as New Zealand do, the game is relatively simple. For every injury to Carter, you have Aaron Cruden. For every suspension for Hore, you have Keven Mealamu.
Whatever your allegiance, there is no denying the superiority of this All Blacks side - after all, they have beaten every other side they've come across in 2012. A time will come when New Zealand are no longer the world's best and this vintage crop will be looked back on. Best to savour it while it lasts.
Ones to watch:
For England: After his surprise nomination for the IRB Player of the Year earlier this week, all eyes will be on fly-half Owen Farrell. The Saracen returns to the starting line-up in place of the injured Toby Flood and kicked well against South Africa, but questions remain over whether he can spark England's backline into life. Elsewhere, Manu Tuilagi has to shine in these sorts of clashes with New Zealand if he is truly to be considered as a world-class talent. Still only 21, England need him to perform.
For New Zealand: Two of New Zealand's greats are not getting any younger, so any time Dan Carter and Richie McCaw run out at Twickenham it is a moment to savour. Both are included on the IRB shortlist along with Farrell and this will be McCaw's final Test before he takes a sabbatical in 2013. With the thought of a deserved rest around the corner, McCaw will not want to be out fishing with the lingering thought of a loss to England on his mind. Carter, meanwhile, has bounced back from the disappointment of missing the Rugby World Cup final with an outstanding year and should control this one from start to finish.
Head-to-head: With caps littered across both sides, it's two players with the fewest that will face-off in an intriguing duel on Saturday. Joe Launchbury initially impressed off the bench against Australia and made his first start last week against the Springboks, holding his own in the contact area and showing off his athleticism. Brodie Retallick meanwhile has been fighting it out with Luke Romano to be the heir to Brad Thorn's throne - bringing intense physicality to the table and proving to be a reliable operator at the set-piece.
Recent results:
2010: New Zealand won 26-16 at Twickenham
2009: New Zealand won 19-6 at Twickenham
2008: New Zealand won 32-6 at Twickenham
2008: New Zealand won 44-12 in Christchurch
2008: New Zealand won 37-20 in Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 41-20 at Twickenham
2005: New Zealand won 23-19 at Twickenham
2004: New Zealand won 36-12 in Auckland
2004: New Zealand won 36-3 in Dunedin
2003: England won 15-13 in Wellington
2002: England won 31-28 at Twickenham
Prediction: It might be the end of a long year for New Zealand, but that is irrelevant. They will want to end 2012 unbeaten and in some style at one of the stadiums in world rugby where winning means everything. England's best chance is to remain in the match for as long as possible, meaning an ironclad defence and plenty of possession - two factors they had against South Africa but failed to capitalise on. Rather than an upset, this should be another lesson in England's education, and a fitting end to a great season for New Zealand. All Blacks by 15.
The teams:
England: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Manu Tuilagi, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Mike Brown, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Alex Corbisiero.
Replacements: 16 David Paice, 17 David Wilson, 18 Mako Vunipola, 19 Courtney Lawes 20 James Haskell, 21 Danny Care, 22 Freddie Burns, 23 Jonathan Joseph.
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumunia, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Victor Vito, 21 Piri Weepu, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Ben Smith.
Date: Saturday, 1 December
Venue: Twickenham Stadium, London
Kick-off: 14:30 GMT
Referee: George Clancy (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Lourens van der Merwe (South Africa)
Television match official: Giulio De Santis (Italy)
by Ben Coles
@bencoles_
Comments
jonesy2 says...
jmanngod -- i concur but wouldve said double figures not single.
as for the preview, not sure how mr coles can predict the future and why he thinks the all blacks wont always be the world best? chris ashton and devestating should not be in the same sentence and the great highs thing, that tickled me. tuilagi is not only not world class but he is barely pro class. he has to be the slowest most unfit and one dementional back playing the game? dont want to go on but struggle to contain? he just runs into the defence, conrad will probably defend him and barrit by himself, one with each arm, and leave maa to chill out wide with savea
Posted 04:36 30th November 2012
Upapalmtree says...
Too many dropkicks to the head, sunshine.
Posted 03:47 30th November 2012
kiwilad says...
Latin, if the ABs are really sick, and have their worst game in 5 years, if England play out of their skins and the ref is a closet Pom, they may sneak it.
Posted 02:45 30th November 2012
wfgwoody says...
I thought the POMs played pretty well against the Springbok. The try was one in a million and without that they could have won. I think they are gonna put up a great fight. I am almost a little worried they.might pull it off. But lets face it. To beat the AB's 3 points at a time will not cut it. Maybe the tummy bug will level the sides and it might end up being a classic. But a healthy AB should touch down at least 3 times. So blackness by 18.
Posted 01:37 30th November 2012
StunTheMullet says...
@ Latin - Isn't that the White Knights game plan for the last 141 years?
Posted 00:33 30th November 2012
Billsticker says...
@ latin is right, all the teams know this but can't maintain it for 80 mins or miss thier chances.
@ dropkick, may I direct you to your family dictionary to look up the word "hubris" - it's not known/ never used in Nz
Posted 00:22 30th November 2012
TVaddict says...
@ArmchairGeneral
Wood below par? Johnson?! Johnson misses so many important tackles and goes missing whenever some omph is required. Yeah he's great carrying the ball but he needs to learn to do the hard yards first, then he can glorify himself. Wood was great last week, disrupting rucks and making a general nuisance of himself. didn't take a step backwards, and that's what we need this week. Every single player to say he is going to bully his opposite number. Lawes and Launch would be an amazing second row combo, as long as one of them is experienced with lineout calls.
@jmanngod
Clancy is the worst ref around and in no way favours England. If anything he seems to target England, watch the France vs England in the six nations to get an idea. He's more likely to red card a few English players and award a few penalty tries to NZ on the Friday than favour England on Saturday.
Anyway, England can win this. Good enough forwards to compete and forwards win you the game. It just depends on how Farrell (coachs) decides to play. Will he kick the ball to Jane et al to score tries at will or will he actually try to attack with it?
With that in mind, it'll probably be All blacks by 10, but just to be patriotic I'm going to say England by 5. They've been struggling with flue, they've got the weight of a record on their shoulders, a whole season of hard rugby behind them, and everyone expects them to win the match easy. It all points to an England victory! Here's hoping to an enjoyable clean game of the sport we all love! :)
Posted 00:15 30th November 2012
Tamjon says...
Having just watched some old reels of England and All Blacks over the last few years, it is amazing to see how dirty the English players are. After all the fuss they have just made about Andrew Hore, I am quite astonished. Elbow to the head to Soliolo, punches to the head of Ali Williams in a ruck, Cowan taken out by a deliberate head high, and it just keeps going.
Posted 23:46 29th November 2012
DampAardvark says...
on a slightly different but no less important matter, why is Borthwick grinning insanely in the picture on this page?
Posted 23:25 29th November 2012
Trader2 says...
There is always a chance of an upset but unless Susie has been seen hanging around the hotels it won't happen this Saturday. The problem, as I see it for England, (and other UK Unions) like Australia to a lesser degree, is the amount of foreigners playing in their game, I am not talking about just in the team itself, look at the clubs for God's sake, Stephen Donald keeping a young up and coming Englishman out of the game. One example of many,where is the payback there for English rugby. Look at English football the EPL arguably the best competition in the World but snow will fall on the Sahara Desert before England win another WC. I agree that at somestage NZ will not be top of the tree and I am sorry but apart from France no one else in the NH has got a chance in hell of assuming that mantle.
AB's by 23 or 7 if they have to have time in the toilet bin.
Posted 22:37 29th November 2012
PontySurrey says...
Oh, and don't leave any toilet paper in the visiting changing room toilet. That'll do it! Clancy wil do the rest.
Posted 22:27 29th November 2012
missionary says...
I've got a bad feeling about this one. England to sneak it. AB's are tired and with Clancy reffing, this game will be a nightmare.
Posted 22:27 29th November 2012
ArmchairGeneral says...
Thinking more on the need to gamble a bit with ABs as Gatland said. And our wings not being right. Was this a game for Wade. Remember Simbad giving Lomu the run around,,, anyway not an option now. Having been a strong opponent, I'm beginning to convert to the need for Wade. He's dragging Wasps up. We've got a beefy defensive set of backs and i think the time is right to bring him in for the 6 nations with two full backs... Foden Goode Brown. Last chance for Ashton for a while unless...
Posted 22:25 29th November 2012
PontySurrey says...
If England wipe out McCaw early doors and go down the remorse route, then whoever does the dirty deed will only get a two game ban. Got to be worth it for a favourable RWC draw heh?
Posted 22:25 29th November 2012
connaughtabu says...
The rugby world is divided into 3 group - the all-conquering All Blacks, countries who can beat the All Blacks (South Africa, Australia and France [now and again]) and aren't afraid of them and the rest who live in terror of the ABs and are despited to lose in perpetuity even to mediocre AB teams. Saturday's game will determine which group England falls into. On current form one suspects Eng may remain in the third group as their style of play is predictable if not ponderous and the current ABs are worthy of the "Invincibles" title awarded after the AB 1924-5 tour when they swept through the NH, winning all 32 games!
A few observations:
- The English back 3 is not balanced, Goode looks like a centre and Brown is not a winger, only Ashton looks comfortable.
- The centres are uninspiring especially Barritt. Tuilani can't be expected to do all the attacking alone
- Halfbacks will be fine when the scrumhalves stop knocking the ball on at crucial moments
- England's traditional strength in the frontrow is not quite there yet: bring back Hartley asap, Youngs is just too small for top flight test rugby!
- you have 4-5 excellent locks, they just need to develop a bit of mongrel!
- the backrow was better against SA than Aus, the addition of a trimmed down Morgan was good and since SA didn't play a fetcher at No7, Robshaw's shortcomings were not exposed. It may well be different against Richie McCaw on Saturday!
I wish England well - but I anticipate the New Zealanders may yet again return home unbeaten after a tougher match than they expect!
:-))
Posted 22:17 29th November 2012
ruckingkiwi says...
NZ generally underperform in the last match of the season and this season has been a long one. Hope the bug hasn't affected them too greatly and they maintain fitness and standards the full 80. England will be up for this one. NZ by 7
Posted 22:09 29th November 2012
Isograford says...
I can't see how it being the end of a long year is 'irrelevant', the AB's must be running fumes by now. They should have put the English and Welsh games at the start and the easier games at the back end.
Posted 21:14 29th November 2012
dropkick says...
Looking at the past ten years or so of head to head scores it is hard to reconcile English rhetoric with results. Whilst the English have been at or near the top of rankings for blather and bluster on the field the team has simply have not been able to the level of consistency achieved by coaches, captains and the all important PR spin merchants who all hit their straps in the week prior to the match.
Based on the stats - ie for the last ten games the average score has been 30 -13 in favour of the All Blacks - I recomend a new approach. A handicap system would be great. How about we split the diff down the middle and give the English a 10 point start. Then we add a 50% rider to take into account the usual biased ref, Richie McCaw cheating, thuggery and general All Blacks naughtiness such as every try being the result of a forward pass etc.
Hopefully that should even things up and give English a reasonable chance of getting a result. There would be one caveat of course and this will be a tricky one for the English - no moaning after the game about any of the above.
I'm guessing if that deal was handed to the English of a silver platter they wouldn't take it. The war of words is just too important to them.
Posted 20:52 29th November 2012
new_j4a says...
ABs by 15???? The bookies agree, but it seems unlikely. My prediction is ABs by 25 is probable, by 35 is possible.... I think even odds at England+15 is a license to print money.
Posted 20:51 29th November 2012
Dannyboy says...
Owen Farrell, POTY nominee is starting? I fear for All Blacks.
If history teaches us anything, and we can't remember any of it, this will be close with England running away with it at the end.
England by 30.
Posted 20:48 29th November 2012