Fading star: It's time for BOD to deliver a meaningful performance
It's funny to think that a few friendly internationals at the tail end of 2008 could have such a major effect on an event that is still three years away.
But with the International Rugby Board's new qualification points system, which sees the 2011 Pool Allocation Draw taking place on December 1, that is exactly what is happening throughout Europe at present.
And there will be no game more important, in terms of the final seedings for the draw, than Ireland's clash with Argentina at Dublin's Croke Park on Saturday. Forget thoughts of revenge for France 2007, this one is all about New Zealand 2011.
In layman's terms: Ireland must win to secure their place in the second tier, those sides placed five through to eight on the official IRB rankings, whilst Argentina need a win to guarantee them a place in the coveted top four.
Given that there is a very real possibility Ireland could lose on Saturday, let's just grasp what the consequences of such a defeat could mean. To finish below eighth in the standings could see Ireland face a World Cup group alongside New Zealand (or either of the other Tri-Nations sides), as well as England or France.
Whilst Argentina are not in such a precarious position, they too will want to ensure they keep hold of their current seeding, and who could blame them. No team in the world would pass up the chance to avoid one of the 'Big Three' from down south in the pool stages.
As is often the way, the permutations are a little more complex than that, but you get the gist of just how important this game will be. So who will get their desired seeding and perceived easier route to World Cup glory - after all that is the ultimate goal between now and the 2011 Final?
There is a school of thought that if you spend too long looking at the past you will eventually stop going forward, Ireland will do well to remember this. So with that in mind lets forget about last year's World Cup game, which for the record Argentina won convincingly to end Ireland's campaign, and focus on the present.
Argentina, albeit as their swansong before a glut of changes, finally proved they are the real deal last year, but that was under Marcelo Loffreda. With Santiago Phelan now at the helm there is a feeling that, despite having a fine squad to call upon, he lacks the tactical nous to extract the best from them.
Already this month we have seen evidence of a change in Argentina's mindset, a regression to a kicking game to utilise their powerful forwards and set-piece. Before, under Loffreda, there was an elegant mix that ensured Argentina soon became a force to be reckoned with. Now, sadly given the calibre of their backs, they have become a touch one-dimensional.
This may well play into Ireland's hands, despite the fact they are, to an extent, a side on the downward curve. For whilst some of the players may not be up to the rigours of Test rugby anymore, new coach Declan Kidney has been a breath of fresh air.
He may not have the guts, yet, to ditch the likes of Brian O'Driscoll, John Hayes and Paul O'Connell, but he does offer a host of new ideas, and most importantly variety in his style of game. Ireland's undoing before his tenure began was Eddie O'Sullivan's lack of ability to evolve with the game, and pure stubbornness when it came to selecting the same players week in, week out on reputation alone.
Suddenly there is an exciting crop of youngsters making their way in Test rugby, a new breed to render the old guard useless. No longer does Peter Stringer own the scrum-half shirt, in fact he will be lucky if he ever gets near it again. Rather Ireland have healthy competition between Tomas O'Leary and Eoin Reddan at nine.
The changes are not confined to one or two positions, but rather are spread throughout the team giving it a lease of new life. BOD's mind may still function, but his body is well off the pace. That doesn't matter too much just yet as he has the spritely Luke Fitzgerald inside him. But sooner, rather than later, he will need to be put out to pasture, along with a few friends.
But before then he has a job to do, as he still has plenty to offer in terms of leadership and experience. What better gift to give his country than the win that ensures their life is a little easier in three years time.
One to Watch:
For Ireland: Given all the hype and hope that surrounds him Brian O'Driscoll has a huge weight of expectancy on his shoulders. He will need to roll the clock back a few years, and find the form of old if Ireland are to stand any chance of winning on Saturday. With provincial team-mate Felipe Contepomi missing from the Argentine centres this weekend his job may be a smidgeon easier. One does get the feeling that another average display and Declan Kidney could be looking for a new captain come the Six Nations.
For Argentina: Having spent the best part of November kicking the leather off the ball there is every chance Juan Martin Hernandez could revert to type on Saturday - at least we hope he does. He has been hailed as the world's best, even better than Dan Carter, but has the tendency to drift in and out of games. Argentina's ploy of kicking does not suit his game, so one can only hope they show a little more adventure and utilise his flair. He is worth watching for a single moment of magic alone, so keep your eyes on him and pray for a clear day.
Head-to-Head: Every now and then rugby throws up a battle that, despite not looking so appealing at first glance, gets the blood racing. So lets hope the battle between two veteran props, John Hayes and Rodrigo Roncero does not disappoint. Both are slightly long in the tooth, but prop is one position where that is actually a positive. Expect them both to conjure all the old tricks, legal or otherwise, in a bid to outdo each other and give their respective sides an advantage at the scrum.
Previous Results:
2007: Argentina won 30-15, Parc des Princes (RWC)
2007: Argentina won 16-0, Velez Sarsfield
2007: Argentina won 22-20, Club Atletico Colon
2004: Ireland won 21-19, Lansdowne Road
2003: Ireland won 16-15, Adelaide Oval (RWC)
2002: Ireland won 16-7, Lansdowne Road
2000: Argentina won 34-23, Ferrocaril Oeste
1999: Argentina won 28-24, Stade Felix Bollaert (RWC)
1999: Ireland won 32-24, Lansdowne Road
1990: Ireland won 20-18, Lansdowne Road
Prediction: Based on the evidence of what we have seen already in November you have to favour Ireland, but only ever so slightly. It will not be a high-scoring game, and nor will the winning margin be big, but Ireland will escape the indignity of slipping out of the IRB's top eight. Ireland by four points
The Teams:
Ireland: 15 Geordan Murphy, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (c), 12 Luke Fitzgerald, 11 Robert Kearney, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Tomas O'Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Rory Best, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Malcolm O'Kelly, 19 A.N. Other, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Paddy Wallace, 22 Keith Earls.
Argentina: 15 Horacio Agulla, 14 Francisco Leonelli, 13 Federico Martin Aramburu, 12 Miguel Avramovic, 11 Rafael Carballo, 10 Juan Martin Hernandez, 9 Nicolas Vergallo, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 7 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (c), 6 Martin Durand, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Rimas Alvarez Kairelis, 3 Juan Pablo Orlandi, 2 Mario Ledesma, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacements: 16 Alberto Vernet Basualdo, 17 Marcos Ayerza, 18 Esteban Lozada, 19 Alvaro Galindo, 20 Agustin Figuerola, 21 Santiago Fernandez, 22 Bernardo Stortoni.
Date: Saturday 22 November, 2008
Venue: Croke Park, Dublin
Kick-off: 14.45 GMT
Weather: 8°C, rainy, and a fresh north-wester 15 km/h
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Mark Lawrence (South Africa), Rob Debney (England)
Television match official: Graham Hughes (England)
Assessor: Steve Hilditch (Ireland)
By Marcus Leach
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