Key clash: Toulon v Montpellier
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The race is on for the four remaining Heineken Cup quarter-final berths. We examine exactly what is needed by each team to make the cut.
Each of the six group winners make it through plus the two best second-place finishers.
If clubs from different pools are level on points, qualification/ranking will be based on the number of tries scored in all pool matches.
If clubs are equal on points and are in the same pool, then qualification/ranking will be based on the two matches played between the clubs concerned.
Harlequins, Clermont, Ulster and Toulon have qualified for the quarter-finals but so far only Quins are guaranteed home advantage in April.
With one round to go, there are still four places to be won along with qualification for three clubs for the Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals.
Pool One
Victory for Saracens at home to winless Edinburgh would see them confirmed as pool winners. Two bonus points or a draw would be enough to qualify.
Munster must beat Racing Metro at Thomond Park and hope that Saracens lose to Edinburgh in order to top the pool. If both Munster and Saracens win, then Munster need to win with a bonus point and hope that either Leinster and Montpellier lose and Toulouse win. The Irish clubs are currently level on points but Munster have scored one more try than Leinster.
Racing Metro are still in with a mathematical chance... but Scotland are more likely to win the World Cup than the Parisians are of making it through.
Pool Two
It's all down to Sunday's clash between Leicester and Toulouse at Welford Road. Whoever wins that game will qualify.
If Leicester lose, they are almost certain to be eliminated leaving them in contention for Amlin Challenge Cup qualification at best.
A losing bonus point could be enough for Toulouse provided only one of Munster, Leinster and Northampton win with a bonus point and Montpellier lose. Two bonus points or a draw would be enough to sneak through.
Pool Three
Harlequins are already guaranteed a home quarter-final and are vying with Clermont and Toulon for the top ranking. A bonus-point win would see them confirmed as number one seeds.
Biarritz need to win with a bonus point and hope that Munster, Leinster and Montpellier all lose.
Pool Four
Victory for Ulster in Castres - a first Heineken Cup win on French soil - would book a home quarter-final.
Northampton must win in Glasgow and hope that more stars that are worth counting align. They need a bucket load of tries as well as Munster, Leinster, Biarritz and Montpellier to lose.
Likewise Castres would need a lot of favourable results to book a best runners-up spot, but if they can upset Ulster, the Amlin Challenge Cup is within reach.
Pool Five
A losing bonus point at Scarlets would almost certainly guarantee Clermont a home play-off.
Leinster need at least a bonus-point victory at Exeter. If either Montpellier or Toulouse get two points, then the champions need to score a lot of tries to beat Munster to the final runners-up spot.
Pool Six
Toulon only need a losing bonus point at Montpellier to secure a home quarter-final.
A win for Montpellier spells trouble for Leinster, Munster, Northampton and Biarritz. A draw or two bonus points should be enough for Fabien Galthié's team to qualify.
Comments
J_HDK says...
Gaaaahhhh!!! The weather this weekend isn't going to help anyone needing 5 tries
Posted 11:19 18th January 2013
melkdave says...
Going to be some cracking games this weekend ,thats for sure,but tbh,i dont think either Munster or Leinster will progress,I think the best 2 runners up will be Montpellier and Toulouse when all said and done
Posted 18:01 16th January 2013
ArmchairGeneral says...
Jeez! Should be some great games with so many chasing bonus points.
Posted 15:57 16th January 2013
jmehrtens says...
with 4 pool winners already decided and saracens pretty certain too it is all about the race for best runners up.
and we start with the worst placed no. 2 . meaning that every no.2 still has a chance when they play and should watch tv afterwards to know if it is enough. only muster might know directly after the game if it was enough
Biarritz to start and might win but without a bonus. 18 points and 2nd for a day
next day N'hampton can chase a bonuspoint against a Scottish side. 19 points
leinster will win but no bonus 19 points and behind N'hampton. enough but not for long
Montpellier than only need a losing bonuspoint but might get more
Munster to get the bonuspoint against a not motivated French team. 20 points and can celebrate.
Toulouse to lose with maximum 1bonuspoint will go to amlin with leinster and N'hampton
Posted 15:43 16th January 2013
pierredelot1 says...
Can't honestly see Toulon taking any risks against Montpelier, had it been a Top 14 game they may have given it the old second team treatment but they will be looking for a home draw and won't give them a cent. Toulouse Leicester is the real crunch. Both have yet to lay down a steady run of form. Here at Toulouse honours were even up to halftime, but after the break Leicester lacked initiative and attacking wit and Toulouse with help from Fickou (Injured) and Picamoles cleaned them out. Leicester failed on that occasion to handle Picamoles from start to finish, the Tigers back row were swatted off like a bunch of flies. If he gets going the same way, then its Bi Bi Leicester and I shall be a happy bunny, but its just too close to call. Munster should win at home as Racing Metro not great travellers. Saracens won't give Edinburgh and inch. Leinster may well beat Exeter but it will be a battle, but Clermont just have too many guns for the Scarlets. Northampton should win at Glasgow, but if ever a Manager hired flakes at 10 then Jim Mallinder certainly had the right recipe. Ulster don't look like failing but Castres at home isn't an easy one so lets see.
Posted 13:55 16th January 2013
whatisthis says...
So it likely that Saracens, Leicester( I think they will beat toulouse), Quins, Ulster, Clermont and Toulon go through as group winners. More than likely it will Montpellier and Munster go through as best runners up. Leaving heavy hitters like Leinster, Toulouse and Northampton out in the cold. Probably good for the competition though.
Clermont v Munster
Quins v Montpellier
Toulon v Ulster
Saracens v Leicester
Meaning that by the semis there will be no previous winners left in the competition with Clermont, Quins, Toulon and Saracens going through. Maybe only Leicester have a realistic chance...
Posted 12:10 16th January 2013
froggy73 says...
I see an over-motivated Montpellier (their coach died yesterday) beating an already qualified Toulon team.
Posted 10:56 16th January 2013
rugby_rockstar says...
I have it on good authority that a coven of black magicians are in northampton as we speak stirring their caudron and creating a spell that'll banish Munster, Leinster Montpellier , Biaritz and Leicester (well hey, if the caudron's on the boil then why the hell not, right?) to the black tower in Mordor. However, I also under that Steven Myler and Ryan Lamb are "helping" so if Northampton locals wake up to find their suroundings even more dismal than usual (Pretty sure they'll be able to tell the difference between Northampton and Mordor, I think) then the best bet is to head west until you reach Gondor, invent ice cream and become a millionaire. Don't let Ryan Lamb guide you or you'll probably end up in Far Harad. (although if you're a glass half full kind guy, at least you'll get to play with some big elephants and run about wearing war paint.)
Posted 10:02 16th January 2013
Toulousain says...
Montpellier (22 points) and Munster (20 points) to get best two runners up. ASM, RCT, Quins and Ulster to get home QFs. Sarries to top their pool. Only question in my mind is Toulouse vs Leicester....
Posted 09:38 16th January 2013
BackingLeinster says...
i think Toulouse getting two points only counts if they lose (4 try loss, unlikely although it did happen last year). If they get the draw they top the group on 20 and Leicester will be eliminated. The real match that concerns both Leinster and Munster is the Toulon Montpellier match. Leinster really need to secure the bonus point though as do Munster.
Posted 09:21 16th January 2013
sextons_on_fire says...
"but Scotland are more likely to win the World Cup than the Parisians are of making it through."
LOOOOOOOL
Posted 09:10 16th January 2013