Can Leinster become the first club in the eighteen-year history of the Heineken Cup to claim a hat-trick of titles? Why not?!
Last season, the Irish giants became the first team since Leicester - ten years ago - to defend their European crown, but three consecutive titles would raise the bar significantly higher. A fourth title in five years would lift them alongside Toulouse as Europe's must successful club.
Joe Schmidt's team have lost just once in this competition in their last 18 matches. Significantly, that loss came against Clermont Auvergne, against whom they have been drawn once again.
Most of the pre-tournament talk has, unfortunately, revolved around the crisis sparked by the English TV rights deal and the need for a revamp of how teams qualify. Whatever the outcome of the prolonged negotiations, it's certain that Europe's biggest competition will have a new look in 2014.
The need for change is clear to all who are willing to see it. While Leinster's army of Irish internationals have played a game or two since returning from holiday, Morgan Parra was on the field for every minute of Clermont's first seven games this season while Vincent Clerc was only a few minutes short of doing the same for Toulouse.
Of course part of the blame must lie with the French for having two extra teams in their domestic league - and thus a ridiculously long season - but the disparity in resources and effort required to compete for silverware in the Top 14 or the Premiership compared to the Pro12 is obvious.
Harlequins and Biarritz won't be complaining too much though because being grouped with Zebre and Connacht means they really would have no excuse for not making it through to the last eight.
No such luck for Leicester and Toulouse however. The 'Group of Death,' which includes Pro12 champions Ospreys and the ever-improving Treviso, is sure to see at least one of the big guns miss out on a quarter-final spot.
The usual suspects make up the list of title contenders - Leinster, Toulouse, Clermont - with the notable addition of Toulon, Harlequins and last year's finalists Ulster, who many feel are now Ireland's strongest club. After two poor European seasons, Munster must now be considered outsiders along with the likes of Leicester, Northampton and Saracens.
With an all-star squad that features internationals in almost every position, including the bench, Toulon are many pundits' pick to wrestle the trophy away from Dublin. Bernard Laporte's team had one weakness last year, the scrum. The solution? Import Andrew Sheridan and Genith Jenkins, add Bakkies Botha and Simon Shaw in the second row to lend a hand...problem solved!
Most importantly, the mix of big names is starting to gel with long-server squad members like Jonny Wilkinson and Joe van Nierkerk providing the glue. They've lost just once in eight games in the Top 14 - with a below-strength team away to Toulouse - so everything suggests they have all the tools required to get the job done.
The English challenge is likely to come from Quins. The Premiership champions showed they had the beating of Europe's best with a victory in Toulouse last year but undid all their good work by running out of steam against Connacht. With a settled squad and the confidence gained from their maiden domestic title, they represent the best bet to bring the Cup back to England for the first time since 2007. Given their draw, Chris Robshaw and co. will be gunning to be one of the top seeds after the pool stages.
All that said, it's only October and predictions in this tournament are seldom worth much. A long season lies ahead, it should be fascinating.
Comments
Sincero says...
uhuh... your 'editing' speaks volumes... the word will go out... you're in their pocket. For shame.
Posted 23:38 12th October 2012
Rosbif says...
@froggy73. You are braver than me!! I think maybe the Irish posters here are in fact happiest when they are arguing (a bit like we French sometimes?). If we solve the problem via PR, it almost spoils the fun, no? I find the best thing is to leave it to the perfidious English to debate with the Celts :-)
Posted 13:28 12th October 2012
froggy73 says...
@PR: If you do not wish to receive the usual Irish angry posts here is my advice:
1) Leinster is the best team in the world. Please ALWAYS rate them as the winners. Also Munster and Ulster are the only teams that can compete.
2) Please write off any English and French sides. They are not worth it anyway.
3) Remember to mention regularly PRO12 is the most exciting and attractive league.
4) You are allowed to say Zerbre are crap.
You see, it's easy to make people happy :)
Posted 11:32 12th October 2012
Jockstrap says...
@thebossman: It has nothing to do with the league, the Leinster seconds would finish near 6th in the aviva as well because they have built up an excellent squad. Besides if the league was such a big advantage then why aren't teams likes Ospreys and Blues making the final every year. The french teams still consistently make the semis and final of the HC, the reason the English are whinging is they've shot themselves in the foot with their salary cap and now won't lie in the bed they've made for themselves.
Posted 11:06 12th October 2012
BiggyFint says...
Melkdave you are some character lmao. How you think having players centrally contracted would make putting a cap on wages in Ireland hard is beyond me and as for your comment on the IRFU only paying foreign players pfff. Irish players aren't targeted by french clubs because the IRFU have a clear policy of not selecting foreign based players for the national side e.g Trevor Brennan, Bob Casey, James Downey. Girvan Dempsey selected ahead of Geordan Murphy regularly (Exception Tommy Bowe). New Zealand and Aus employ the same strategy to their benefit.
"A non-international player in the English Premiership, the average salary would be in the region of £125,00-£150,000 a year (about ¿152,000-¿182,000 a year). An international will make around double that with match fees and bonuses on top.
As most people know, the money in France can go a lot higher, with the top guys making up to ¿750,000 a year.
But then, a club like Toulouse works off an annual budget of over ¿30 million. In Ireland, the four provinces combined wouldn¿t come close to that.
Munster¿s total budget for the year is somewhere around the ¿5 million mark so the idea of trying to match the salaries on offer in France is a non-starter".
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0418/1224314874870.html
Posted 10:27 12th October 2012
CMac says...
@ ramm83.... I did read the Article, pretty carefully and there was ZERO mention of Ulster at the time I read it. The "editor" must have added this in after looking at all the comments being made....
Posted 10:20 12th October 2012
Rich753 says...
You say "but the disparity in resources and effort required to compete for silverware in the Top 14 or the Premiership compared to the Pro12 is obvious" which completely misses the point.
England and France, as shown by the performance levels of their national teams are roundabout the same level as Wales and Ireland, and Scotland on a very good day. But Eng/Fra have chosen to spread their playing resources between 12 and 14 teams, instead of 4 or 2 so not surprisingly their teams struggle to compete in the HCup.
Posted 09:59 12th October 2012
ArmchairGeneral says...
Why are the Welsh clubs so bad at HC. They're in the Pro12??
English club rugby is just not as comparitively good as in the days when they were winning HC. But I sense change. I think the England clubs can win tough games but not string an HC winning series of games together yet. That said Saints have not been mentioned in the banter as the best English candidates with Quins. I think a Welsh club this year can suprise us.
They got the pool of death wrong with Leicester Toulouse. It has to be Exeters pool.
@mr_right: melkdaves posts are fine. Yours are ok too.
Posted 09:15 12th October 2012
porridge_time says...
melkdave says...
Have the top PR clubs been utilising their massive squads this season?
Posted 08:55 12th October 2012
Thebosston2 says...
@Jockstrap: "Leinster have rested all their internationals for the past two seasons and still finished comfortably at the top of the league. Their seconds alone would qualify them in the top 6 in my opinion." YOU'VE JUST MADE MY POINT FOR ME!!! That is exactly what the ENglish and French clubs are complaining about. Leinster can keep their powder dry for Europe because it's so easy for them domestically.
Posted 07:36 12th October 2012
melkdave says...
@Sincero
Are you still posting your untruths and tired old cliams for the status -que.Even though i and others have disproved them countless times.I could post a real refute of your claims,but it would be such along post ,and nodought youll ignore it like all the others lol.Ill just do the SAL;ARY CAP/ and BUDGETS as ii can be a short one
The reason a salary cap imposed on clubs wouldnt work ,and also would be unfair is The irish players arnt paid by their club ,but by the IRFU ,so any cap on what clubs could spend ect would be meaningless for irish teams.The only players irish clubs have to pay are the overseas ones So thats hardly fair just on that basis.Also this myth about players earning alot more in France than elsewhere is a joke.The elite irish players are also earning about125-150K euros about what they would earn in France alot more than the60-70K by welsh or scottish players. by the wayEver wonderd why irish players arnt targeted by french/english clubs thats why.Also you do know that Leinster,Munster and Ulster are getting 7.5 million euros from the IRFU,thats 2,5 million more than english clubs and many french aswellAnd twice what the welsh and scottish clubs will get.So please before spoting your usul nonsense make sure your facts are right ect .Otherwise you just look foolish
Posted 05:29 12th October 2012
tellitlikeitis says...
another rubbish populist comment by planet rugby. Poor rugby reporting, and more importantly piss poor journalism. Its clear most of your rugby journos haven't a clue about rugby, so stop trying to dupe people and pretend you know what you're on about.
Posted 03:55 12th October 2012
Mr_Right says...
What a rubbish article. Seriously editor, are you honestly trying to get us to sympathise with Clermont because poor Parra has played 7 games this season? Clermont have a ridiculous amount of quality international players in each position. Sivivatu, Byrne, Malzieu, Nalaga, Buttin in there back 3, and 4 international centres to pick from, need I go on?
Since when did the only necessary ingredient to win in rugby become the amount of rest a player has had? Because if not playing rugby every week is the only thing you need to be a successful rugby player then I should be the best player in the world.
Go ahead and bring in Rabo qualification if it will stop you whining, it won't stop Leinster, Ulster, Ospreys etc from resting internationals FOR THEIR OWN GOOD and it won't stop them playing and developing academy players.
Funny how the English teams used to say that the reason they were so successful in Europe is because of the amount of 'tough' games they played week in week out and that the Celtic teams suffered from not playing enough competitive games. What has changed??
Also if English clubs feel they are overplayed stop playing in the rubbish Anglo Welsh cup, install some sort of mandatory rotation of players, which will not only prolong the players careers but also gives academy and home grown players a chance to develop
I notice Sarries didn't put out a first choice 15 against Welsh on Sunday. How dare they rsst players. What were they thinking.
@melkdave
Is there a single article you don't post on?? How about getting a life.
Posted 01:13 12th October 2012
porridge_time says...
Melkdave.... the English clubs have just not been good enough in recent years. The other stuff about Pro12 teams and Italian and Scots not deserving to qualify is a smokescreen.
All European countries with professional rugby sides are being fairly represented and surely that is what matters.
Here is a scenario for you Glasgow go down and beat Northampton, this defeat will be put down to the Scots side managing to rest their players, but if Northampton win it's be cause their are a superior team.
Posted 00:20 12th October 2012
porridge_time says...
Loaded article, don't understand why there is a need for change to the qualification here. English and French clubs are well represented from their respective leagues and how they choose who qualifies is up to them.
Posted 00:03 12th October 2012
Toulousain says...
@sincero. ah, mon ami. you remind me of my son. very passionate! you are/were probably a fine player too? well, the games finally begin this weekend. it seems like we have all been waiting too long. everyone who loves rugby in europe has been getting jumpy. there are only so many sleepless nights one can have. only so many times you can pack your kit bag, polish of your boots and smell the deep heat.
bonne chance ce weekend mon brave!!
I love all you leinster fans. It's what makes this heineken cup such a fantastic tournament. the sea of blue shirts!! but the time for talking is soon coming to an end. let's see how we are all playing and catch up on Sunday night. then we can all have a drink together and share stories.
just remember, this is our tournament. no SH bullies. no silly politics. what counts is le jeu. ALLEZ@!!@!!
:-)
Posted 21:53 11th October 2012
papachinzo says...
Leicester and Toulouse are past it, I don't know why they're being mentioned.
Quins wont have a chance, O'Shea and the team don't have big match temperament or the talent.
Leinster won't win it because their squad is in tatters, I think Clermont's team is too old.
Qualifying teams:
1.Biarritz 2.Toulon 3.Ulster 4.Munster 5.Leinster 6.Ospreys 7.Harlequins 8.Clermont
Posted 20:41 11th October 2012
melkdave says...
Heres an idea ,if all the 6Ns counties are to be represented then lets make it only the best teams from all the countries 2 Only from Ireland and Wales,1 each from Scotland and Italy 4 from England ,So theres a place for the Amlin champions,and 5 from France because there league is 14 clubs ,but they give up a Amlin place in compensation.Of course if this was followed ithis year ,it would mean no Ulster or Edinburgh or Cardiff or Zebres from the Pro12 or Sale /Exeter from the AP or I forget from the T14.LOL Start as usual with a round robin ,but only 16 teams ,then straight into the semi finals knockout for the top 2 teams from the round robin groups of 4.No automatic place for the european champions ,and no extra places for nations if one of their teams wins.
Now ill sit back and let the TROLLS from the celtic nations Howl As they are bound to LOLOL
Posted 20:24 11th October 2012
Douglas1984 says...
sincero you are are a complete lunatic with a massive chip on your shoulder. let's just enjoy the rugby shall we and avoid petty politics to the idiots who run the game
Posted 20:20 11th October 2012
Rosbif says...
@Sincero. i always read your posts with interest. thank you for taking the time to write in depth. you make good points, as always, but i fear you may be losing some of the neutrals (is there such a thing?) with your somewhat partisan style. here it sounds like you may be trying to start an argument with the editor journo who wrote the piece (and he seems to be taking the bait!).
your points will win the argument. it's like being in possession in the red zone. you just need patience!!
Happy days and good luck to Leinster (just not if they meet Toulouse - but beating Clermont will win you many friends down here in the South West)
Posted 20:13 11th October 2012