With the Six Nations set for kick-off this weekend, Planet Rugby takes a look at each team's chances in 2013. Next up, Wales!
Last season's Grand Slam winners followed up their success in the Six Nations with a torrid run of seven consecutive defeats, meaning that many appear to have already written off a Welsh title defence.
Last year: Wales could do no wrong in 2012. Their pack were dogged, their defence resolute and at times they produced brilliant attacking rugby through giant wingers Alex Cuthbert and George North. The high of reaching the semi-finals at the Rugby World Cup the previous year swept through into spring, with the likes of Leigh Halfpenny, Sam Warburton and Rhys Priestland all continuing their run of form.
In fact, Wales were so good that a series win in Australia seemed on the cards back in June. Instead they returned empty handed from a tight series and followed it up in November with four losses on the bounce, including a surprise defeat against Samoa and another late heartbreaker against the Wallabies in Cardiff.
This year: Crucially, despite their record reading otherwise, Wales have been far from hugely outclassed in all of their recent losses. Such is the Welsh way that when at their lowest a championship is not out of the question, with a good example being how they followed up their demise at the 2007 Rugby World Cup with a Grand Slam the following year.
Warren Gatland will be absent from their preparations as he focuses on Lions duty and the side may suffer for it, with Rob Howley now tasked with steering the ship. Howley's record so far does not read well and any aspirations he holds of taking on the role full-time in the future will rely on an improvement in the Six Nations.
An injury crisis at lock has seen the management turn to stars both young - the talented duo of James King and Andrew Coombs - as well as old in the 31-year old uncapped Harlequin, Olly Kohn.
Howley has highlighted his side's scrum as a weapon but the line-out could well struggle without experienced heads, which will make the backs' afternoons no easier. With Priestland injured, the responsibility will fall to one of Dan Biggar - with the Ospreys currently in very good form for his region - or James Hook.
Key players: Warburton remains as captain but the big question is where he will play due to the form of Justin Tipuric. The Osprey was phenomenal in the Heineken Cup against Leicester and is now impossible to ignore.Halfpenny has showed time and again that he has a world-class boot, a factor that can help Wales edge out tight matches if needs be. Biggar for now appears to have the edge over Hook at fly-half and the question will be whether he can replicate his excellent form for the Ospreys at Test level.
Howley hailed the return of Adam Jones earlier in the week and the tighthead can be an attacking option for Wales at scrum-time if he has enough support from behind, all of which makes Lou Reed, with only two caps to his name, rather essential in the absence of Ryan Jones, Bradley Davies, Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn Jones and Ian Evans. The final key star is Jonathan Davies. The Lions stock of outside centres is currently deep with Brian O'Driscoll and Manu Tuilagi, but Davies has shown so far in his Test career that he has the ability to start for the touring side.
Prospects: Their recent record and injury list all indicate that Wales should be written off for the title, and yet it's not that simple. All their prospects hinge on the opening fixture against Ireland - start well and optimism will return. Lose, and the misery will continue.
Fixtures:
2 February: v Ireland - Home
9 February: v France - Away
23 February: v Italy - Away
10 March: v Scotland - Away
16 March: v England - Home
Comments
Waz4before says...
That last statement sums it up; wales haven't been outclassed in defeat and could have defeated Oz in 3 out of their 4 games (the exception being the Brisbane Test where they were well off the pace for most of the game). So I'd agree, everything depends upon that first game.
I'd forecast them winning both of their home games, losing away to France and - confidence permitting - winning both of their other 2 away games - so a championship is not out of the question at all!
Posted 23:23 30th January 2013
RugbyLeRoux says...
@rockstar no probs for the Welsh in the line out, simple 15 man line out every time, catch and drive. Easy.
Posted 22:17 30th January 2013
Jprees says...
The line out will not be an issue providing James King is selected in the second row. He is the best line out caller the O's have had and always makes the right decision. Fantastic at the dog work around the park and makes more tackles than anyone else, regularly reaching upwards of 20 per game. Nailed on as a star of the future and right now if given the opportunity.
Posted 20:59 30th January 2013
rugby_rockstar says...
Planet rugby has summed things up really well. The lineout is something all five other teams will want to attack. I'd also say that Wales have lost the plot on attack. its all crash bang wallop with Roberts, Davies, North, Cuthbert and phillips all rumbling into the oposition only to be brought crashing down by simple professional good tackling technique. there' no guile in th welsh attack, the inclusion on players like Leigh Halfpenny and Eli Walker is pretty much a necessity, especially when you throw in Mike Phillips Slooooooooow service.
if the attck is in much need of a overhaul then the line out is now a traditional weakness. anyone remember Fiji drawing with Wales on a friday night in november a few years back. one of the key problems was the welsh lineout. What about England beating wales in cardiff two years ago? Dylan Hartley will remember that day fondly. This year the line out must be keeping howley up at night with worry.
Talking of a stress out rob howley he's not exactly filling anyone with confidence. the down turn in wales' attack basically coincided with Robs apointment as attack coach. Even I'm worried about Rob's coaching but that more to do with his appointment as lions attack coach. Come on Gats... really? Given the way ireland shredded argntina with some beautifully orchestrated plays this november I'd have said the irish attacking coaches are doing the best job.
So can Wales win the six nations? I just think there's too much to fix in too short a time. Which is actually really funny if you happen to be English or Irish, neither of which would have been that pleased with certain refereeing decisions that had crucial effects on their matches with wales last season. Blatent tip tackles and disallowed tries being particular reasons to fire up those two countries to look for some revenge.
I predict a bottom half of the table finish
Posted 17:06 30th January 2013
melkdave says...
Given the lack of confidance,and injuries ect ,you wouldnt expect Wales to mount any sort of realistic challange.Heart says 4 th at best ,but theres definatly the possibillity of a wooden sppoon tbh.if they lose in Ireland.Next game France away followed by Italy and Scotland away,Wales could be looking at 11 stright losses,before the England game in Cardiff,and England could be playing for the champonship that day..Hope it never happens ,myself,but Wales definatly need to do something,to make opposition teams think,atm they know where the welsh are coming from attack wise.
Posted 16:55 30th January 2013
LondonWasp says...
i am not reading too much into the string of recent defeats. they will find their form again during the 6Nations, I have had nightmares that England will beat Scot, Ire, Italy and France, but then get crushed to pieces in Cardiff. Slaying a dragon in its lair is hard....
Wales vs Ireland is going to be very interesting....
Posted 16:17 30th January 2013
carpelone says...
Would it be the first time for a team to go from Grand Slam glory to Wooden Spoon doldrums?
Not likely, but a remote possibility is there, I reckon.
Posted 15:33 30th January 2013