Evenin' all: Richie McCaw
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The big honour of hosting the opening fixture of 2012's Rugby Championship goes to Sydney as Australia face the All Blacks at ANZ Stadium on Saturday.
Argentina may disagree but it's perhaps fitting that this enlarged competition kicks-off with the Tri-Nations holders up against the RWC winners.
How the competition-sealing win in Brisbane on August 27 must feel like an age ago now though for a Wallaby team that is unlikely to retain its title.
Such a negative vibe following a 3-0 series victory over Wales might cause an eyebrow to raise but without James Horwill and a fit Quade Cooper, there just seems to be something missing from Robbie Deans' men as they look to claim what they haven't since 2001 - back-to-back triumphs. Former All Black Richard Loe has gone as far as to say that Australia will only be victorious in just one game out of six because of forward frailties.
Moving on before we do Deans' teamtalk for him.
Since that game at Suncorp Stadium, the All Blacks won 20-6 in the World Cup semi-final in Auckland thanks largely to a moment of magic by Israel Dagg. And after a brief break from the international scene, the try-scoring recipient from Dagg's inside ball, Ma'a Nonu, is back.
Nonu's return has been a touch overshadowed by the prolonged Test career of Sonny Bill Williams (fate maybe that he shouldn't go?) as an eye injury to Conrad Smith sees SBW carry on. Those who like their statistics - and if you are Australian - may be encouraged by Smith's 90 per cent win record in international rugby for he is the glue for their backline.
New Zealand do go into the game on a run of ten consecutive wins and it is worth reminding readers that despite losing the Tri-Nations title last year, Bledisloe Cup bragging rights have remained in their corner. Their largely settled line-up oozes experience and with a nice dash of youth in scrum-half Aaron Smith, they have got a great deal of caps (squad total of 785) in their cabinet. Factor in that the Wallabies last won a Bledisloe Cup series against New Zealand 2-0 way back in 2001 and that none of the current Wallabies have featured in a winning series against the All Blacks, then the odds on a change of the guard look long.
Australia could fall short in the front-row and it continues to perplex why Stephen Moore is not starting while their back-row has two good runners in Scott Higginbotham and Dave Dennis, but whether they have the international nous and dog of their rivals is going to be the question. New Zealand meanwhile seem to have an ideal balance of grunt and cutting edge while their bench options make it only one result for me as the ABs strut to Auckland.
Ones to watch:
For Australia: Digby Ioane has not crossed the whitewash in his past eight Tests, with his last try coming against Italy at last year's Rugby World Cup in New Zealand. That does not make pretty reading for the finisher, who has been on a similar drought for the Reds in Super Rugby. Some say that he gets over the whitewash a lot more when Quade Cooper is playing at fly-half but once again there is no sign of the Wallaby maestro so it is up to others to create - and for him to look for work against the All Blacks this weekend. One cannot underplay how key the Scott Higginbotham/Will Genia axis will be at ANZ Stadium.
For New Zealand: Perhaps the most surprising call made by Steve Hansen was to leave Brodie Retallick out of his starting side in favour of lock Luke Romano. Maybe the workrate of the former over recent weeks was taken into account or maybe I am doing a disservice to Romano - who did perform well during June - but it did come as something as a shock to see the Crusader line up alongside Sam Whitelock. His outing will be interesting to keep an eye on as he gets through a lot of ball carrying in a Brad Thorn-like approach to rugby union. Elsewhere, the international encore of Sonny Bill Williams in tandem with Ma'a Nonu will be great to watch as they go up against two of the strongest centre defenders around.
Head-to-head: Arguably the two best full-backs in world rugby meet at ANZ Stadium and I for one cannot wait to see the duo try their hand at the back. Kurtley Beale is more likely than Israel Dagg to wander up into the first line and help out in the playmaking area, but for the side wearing black, Dagg's ability to glide over the turf always gets supporters juices flowing. When these two teams last met - in the Rugby World Cup semi-final at Eden Park - it was Dagg's classy assist for Ma'a Nonu that led to them holding an unassailable 14-6 advantage at the half-time break so Australia will be wary of the man (pictured). Another area that cannot be left unwatched is undoubtedly the back-row battle. We have two quality opensides, number eights and strong sixes who could shape where this result ends up.
Recent results:
2011: New Zealand won 20-6 in Auckland
2011: Australia won 25-20 in Brisbane
2011: New Zealand won 30-14 in Auckland
2010: Australia won 26-24 in Hong Kong
2010: New Zealand won 23-22 in Sydney
2010: New Zealand won 20-10 in Christchurch
2010: New Zealand won 49-28 in Melbourne
2009: New Zealand won 32-19 in Tokyo
2009: New Zealand won 33-6 in Wellington
2009: New Zealand won 19-18 in Sydney
Prediction: Seven of the last ten games in Australia have seen five-point winning margins or less but I just feel that New Zealand possess a little too much this time. I very much like the look of their backs while Liam Messam's inclusion at flank is deserved. All Blacks by eight!
The teams:
Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Will Genia, 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 David Pocock (capt), 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Radike Samo, 20 Michael Hooper, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Drew Mitchell.
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Ma'a Nonu, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (capt), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Ben Smith.
Date: Saturday, August 18
Kick-off: 20:05 (11:05 BST, 10:05 GMT)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Referee: Alain Rolland (IRFU)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (WRU), Lourens Van Der Merwe (SARU)
TMO: Matt Goddard (ARU)
By Adam Kyriacou
@PlanetRugbyAK
Comments
7ton says...
trinats and carpelone
And maybe this time the NH ref may just clamp down on the" Aussie way" for blocking and interfering with players of the ball especially around the fringes of the ruck. The constant one eyed biased whinging from you two is tiresome and been countered many times but you just drone and carp on and on.
All teams use tactics which are to the limit or just over the law. All teams get penalised and at times get away with things.
As for the game tomorrow it's very tight to call and I would say 50/50
Good luck to both teams and to those so inclined Enjoy the beer after!
Cheers
Posted 11:03 17th August 2012
Trinats2 says...
Love the photo, McCaw being questioned about his illegal tactics !!!
Posted 10:51 17th August 2012
melkdave says...
On form you have to go with New Zealand to win comfortably,but you can never write off Australia pulling off an upset espically at home,but i have to say it does look improbable.Looking at the teams only W.Genia would be a shoe in to get into the ABs ,while on the reverse most of the ABs would make the wallaby team by a country mile.Also again with the R.Deans bashing from our oz cousins,i just dont get it myself.Do you really think any other coach could do as well with the pausity of talant Australia has atm??its not his fault QC isnt match fit or JOC and JH are injured ect,your really living in dreamland if you think anyone else could do better..Its also not his fault that the front 5 is precioved to be a major weakness,that problem has beein with the wallabies for over a decade .Anyway im hoping it will be an exciting match ,but ive a feeling the ABs will easily dominate and win by 15,though im hoping it will be closer and maybe by 5
Also as a post script if RD does go im pretty sure Ireland would love to have him as head coach ,.Might make a nice change for him to be somewhere he would be apprecited and has alot of good young talant comming though.
Posted 10:44 17th August 2012
Trinats2 says...
hayj05:
"AB's by 10 if Mortlock doesn't get an early intercept "
Typical kiwi, lol, living in the past, Mortlock no longer plays for the Wallabies but at his age might get a start in the All Blacks or is he too young !!!
Posted 10:14 17th August 2012
Wallaroo says...
Unfortunately Deans has not endeared himself to the Australian public, technically I have no doubt that Deans is more than capable but under him the Wallabies have lost their passion.
I'm with BD on this, a part of me wants to see the Wallabies lose so that we can get rid of Deans and bring in a coach that inspires and invigorates the team (A bit like I wanted to see happen with the Tahs).
Having said this I cannot bring myself to make a call against the Wallabies, I'm just too one eyed for that.
C'mon Australia, Wallabies by 5.
Posted 10:12 17th August 2012
hayj05 says...
@Trinats2 - The less said about that team the better, besides what's the point of doing it before the tournament starts?
Posted 09:32 17th August 2012
pierredelot1 says...
Oh Trinats 2 you're far too modest. Only wrong once, well a pound to a penny that team of yours will be out of the window by next week. Far too many Aussies in that line up for any neutral watching.
Posted 09:11 17th August 2012
kelfoon says...
Sydney has seen the last 2 games end in 1 point wins to NZ.
Without Kaino (best player in NZ last year) and Thorn, the AB's lack the hardness to dominate Aust.
Genia and Ioane will give them grief while don't expect AB scrum to dominate as Romano, Whitelock and Franks were part of a scrum totally demolished by Cheifs in Semi final.
Posted 09:09 17th August 2012
whizz52 says...
AB's going away ... Aussie are sh.t!
Posted 08:51 17th August 2012
hayj05 says...
@ Trinats2 - Apologies on the "NZ have had 10 in a row but all in NZ" stat. Just realised you're talking about the last 10 tests, should of been obvious I guess lol.
Fair enough but I don't think anyone in NZ is thinking about that stat, winning 10 tests in a row hasn't exactly been a rare occurrence for the AB's of the last decade.
Posted 08:44 17th August 2012
powerplay says...
ditto@ golden_statenba, never underestimate Aus! Could well be egg on the face. Hansen still 'fresh' as a head coach!
Posted 08:44 17th August 2012
hayj05 says...
LOL @ Trinats2 - Zzzzzzzzzzzz.... I love how you have a go at Adam for his negative vibe jibe & then take on exactly the same tone with NZ.
Super 15 excuse is pure bs. Scotland one is fine. Oh & Australia actually lost to Ireland in the WC... So what they nearly beat us in one test? Wales nearly beat you in all 3, funny how you leave that out. Not that I care about "nearly" men because it's all about winning.
"NZ have had 10 in a row but all in NZ" What is that stat? Sounds like some made up crap.
In my opinion it's 50/50. One because it's a first game & has that unknown factor, two because Australia were purposely bad in Super Rugby so they could get an extended break, believing that that's the only way they could compete, & three because it's being played in Australia.
PS. I was just having a wind up about Australian Super Rugby purposely losing but considering all the dribble you wrote I thought it was approriate.
AB's by 10 if Mortlock doesn't get an early intercept.
Posted 08:36 17th August 2012
carpelone says...
Even though NZ are beatable, it is hard to bet against them. But never writing Oz off, especially if led by a Zimbabwean / Rhodesian.
Rolland can be a factor if he is able to ping NZ's captain.
Posted 08:22 17th August 2012
Trinats2 says...
Team of the Rugby Championship.
1 Argentinan Prop (can't remember his name sorry)
2 Bismark Du Plessis
3 Tony Woodcock
4 Rob Simmons
5 Sam Whitelock
6 Liam Messam
7 David Pocock
8 Scott Higginbotham
9 Will Genia
10 Quade Cooper (Cruden if Cooper is not fit)
11 Digby Ioane
12 James O Connor (Jean De Villers if O'connor not fit)
13 Ma'a Nonu
14 JP Pietersen
15 Kurtley Beale
I could be wrong, I was once before !!! and it could be an all Argentinan front row.
Posted 08:18 17th August 2012
hellovanite says...
Nervous too!
Posted 08:00 17th August 2012
BDAUSSIE says...
A small part of me hopes we lose this so that we can finally say good riddance to Robbie Deans (the guy is just not cut out to be a top level test coach and brings no patriotism to our squad). How the hell does deans justify selections like Timani and Samo for god sakes. No way in hell does Timani deserve to don the wallabies jumper.
The rest of me says Go Wallabies!!!
Not expecting a win. A decent performance is all I ask.
Posted 07:33 17th August 2012
Terry_English says...
Australia are not a great side and will lose a number of games this tournament but they always put in their best performance against New Zealand. It will be close and the Wallabies may be leading at half time but I think the ABs will win by 5
Posted 07:22 17th August 2012
jonesrp says...
I get very nervous before tests against the Wallabies...I know the stats don`t support this but there`s still something about them...
Posted 06:16 17th August 2012
oldschool says...
Yep, hard to see how we can get over the blacks. Oh well, will head out to the game and prey for a miracle. Maybe Deans has been holding back all this time. Sigh.
Posted 03:51 17th August 2012
Tyler_Durden says...
Other than 9 I can't think of a single position where Aus have a significant advantage. And even then Smith is no slouch and has, arguably, the better pass.
Even their positions of strength, 7, 11 and 15 have, McCaw, Jane and Dagg as their opposites. All more rounded players than their Aus counterparts.
A comfortable for the AB's, I'd say.
Posted 02:58 17th August 2012