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Preview: Australia v South Africa

07th September 2012 09:19

Duane Vermeulen for cameras

Big ask: Duane Vermeulen

It is almost 11 months to the day since the Wallabies defeated the Springboks in that controversial Rugby World Cup quarter-final in Wellington.

That isn't a cue for out-of-date comments people, although the term out-of-date has arisen of late as the two sides look to have backtracked from 2011.

Many would have expected that since the RWC clash, both nations might have improved and be battling New Zealand for the summit of the IRB Rankings. Instead, we have a Wallabies coach reportedly clinging to his job by his fingernails and a Bok boss employing an antiquated game-plan.

The impressive All Blacks, meanwhile, currently enjoy a 6.38 rating points advantage - their record margin being 9.41 way back in the June of 2007. Meyer's charges are trailing in third but let's be honest for a second, first and fourth spot in the world list by December is a much of a muchness.

Consequently, the carrot of moving to within one spot of the All Blacks in the rankings will not have been given a second thought by South Africa as Jean de Villiers looks to lift his outfit following their showing in Mendoza, where their bulldozing tactic was easily absorbed by Argentina.

We do not expect a drastic change in the somewhat limited kick and charge plan from the Boks, but if it was going to succeed then against the Wallabies is when it possibly would.

Factor in that there is a fresh and untried winger wearing jersey number fourteen in the shape of Dom Shipperley - while Reds team-mate Digby Ioane has shown over the years that he can be rattled and is prone to more than one fumble per game - and South Africa will continue to go the airborne and also direct route with the question being: can Australia do what the Pumas did so brilliantly at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas a few weekends ago?

The general consensus is the hosts may not be suited to going toe-to-toe with their visitors, and while their recent four-game winning streak over South Africa is admirable, a lot has changed since in their starting XV since the 11-9 result at Wellington Regional Stadium.

A lack of Pat McCabe takes away their own direct option when showy attacks aren't on - an attribute Berrick Barnes simply does not possess - while the absence of James O'Connor, Stephen Moore, David Pocock, Stephen Moore, James Horwill and Drew Mitchell coinciding with form dips from Kurtley Beale, Will Genia and Quade Cooper leaves them struggling. Due to those issues, Deans now selects a different back-line for the third fixture in a row.

It seems like a mid-term telling off for the Wallabies but they are not alone in upsetting their masses as the Springboks, who frequently talk about having a Plan B, desperately need to prove they are more than what they have shown in their last three international outings.

Two draws and a win has not gone down well in the Republic as they persist with a selection that smacks more of structure than allowing flair and inhibition to flow.

One positive to come from their last showing is the inclusion of Johan Goosen, albeit on the bench. But judging by the recent fate of Pat Lambie, whether or not we see him make it onto the field is another matter entirely. If we do, maybe this 'Plan B' will have legs to stand.

Ones to watch:

For Australia: At 36 years old, Radike Samo gets a run at number eight ahead of Scott Higginbotham. The demotion of the latter player to bench duty was something of a surprise as maybe Dave Dennis could have been the man warming the pine, with Higginbotham switching to blindside. However, Deans has gone for a different route as he names a back-row that lacks in Test experience. Michael Hooper will, as usual, give his all while further forward it is unfortunate that Stephen Moore misses out on becoming the most-capped Wallaby hooker of all time due to a hamstring injury. That feat will come soon enough.

For South Africa: Getting the intelligent rugby brain of Ruan Pienaar onto the field is a great move from visiting head coach Heyneke Meyer as his form for Ulster over the past year or so has been exceptional. One hopes to see him alongside Johan Goosen at some stage, which would be a proud moment for Grey College in Bloemfontein. Furthermore, if Frans Steyn is still on the field it would be a 9-10-12 combination. It has seemed like the Boks' game-plan has muzzled the enterprising talent that is Francois Hougaard, so it will be interesting to see if he flourishes out on the left wing ahead of a benched Lwazi Mvovo.

Head-to-head: Although he is our one-to-watch for Australia, Radike Samo going up against a Springbok number eight who surely cannot be fit enough for international rugby is going to be interesting. Western Province coach Allister Coetzee said after Duane Vermeulen's Currie Cup comeback against Griquas: "Duane ended up playing an extra ten minutes than we'd initially planned. He wasn't quite at his best, but it's understandable. I would say he needs at least three or so matches before he'll be back at his best Currie Cup/Super Rugby standard." One game later, here he is in Perth. It's a big ask of Vermeulen on Saturday.

Recent results:

2011: Australia won 11-9, Wellington
2011: Australia won 14-9, Durban
2011: Australia won 39-20, Sydney
2010: Australia won 41-39, Bloemfontein
2010: South Africa won 44-31, Pretoria
2010: Australia won 30-13, Brisbane
2009: Australia won 21-6, Brisbane
2009: South Africa won 32-25, Perth
2009: South Africa won 29-17, Cape Town
2008: South Africa won 53-8, Johannesburg

Prediction: Australia have a 62 per cent winning record over South Africa on home soil, but that dips to 42 per cent in Perth. I just feel that the Springboks' tough game-plan will work against the Wallabies and they will end their four-game rot. Let's say... South Africa by 6!

The teams:

Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (c), 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 James Slipper, 18 Scott Higginbotham, 19 Liam Gill, 20 Nick Phipps, 21 Mike Harris, 22 Anthony Fainga'a.

South Africa: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Pat Cilliers, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Francois Louw, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Lwazi Mvovo.

Date: Saturday, September 8
Venue: Patersons Stadium, Perth
Kick-off: 18.35 (10.35 GMT)
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)

By Adam Kyriacou

Comments

TheTruthHurts says...

C'mon you Aussie's put the last 2 matches behind you and start again! On paper the Boks look much better and the fact that it's in Perth a happier OZ hunting ground for the SA team, my head says Boks by 8 but my heart says OZ by 3...... needless to say I am very confused, and have no idea which way this one will go.... game on!!

Posted 15:50 07th September 2012

JayStarr says...

@ APV1: You started it... I just helped you along. And by the way, I have a thing for pands too... Don't be so pandist.

@ Carpelone: When you meet someone from Europe in a bar and they use a word that you find strange, do you say to them "what a mediocre NH word!"? Come on mate, we're real people on here... We're all a little weird... (We watch rugby after all)... Show some love!

Posted 15:29 07th September 2012

darthbok says...

SA will really miss their talismanic game breakers -- the Bismark, JP pieterson , , and some really good `fetchers` as they are called --should be called `disruptors` --or even raptors --but I digress -- also I think jean devilliers is well past his best , and actually a weak link to be targeted-- like so many springbok captains -- also wish brice lawrence to make a guest appearance as a touch judge -- start a petition , anyone?

Posted 15:02 07th September 2012

Carpelone says...

Pands? What a mediocre, NH's poster.

Posted 14:59 07th September 2012

UBA05 says...

Toss up between the two.

This one is really tough to call since its the first Aus v Rsa this year. On one side an Aus side demolished by a great team, the other a Bok team contained by a side with a good forward pack. Who blinks first, the one dimensional bash it, kick it boks or the havent seen your backline attack yet, dont bet your house on their forwards aussies. Stay tuned.

PR, i think that Duane vermeulen pic was meant for a singles-dating site. The pose, the lights in the back, that faraway look. Haha.

Yes, i wouldnt dare say that to his face.

Posted 14:30 07th September 2012

atg77 says...

On paper one would normally go with the Australians, who offer much more of an X-factor in their backline. however confidence will be very low after the thumping by New Zealand and key players well out of form. Although South Africa drew their last game, they didn't actually lose... and have yet to do so under HM. S.A. will play their usual boom and bang rugby; don't expect a great spectable but they will probably grind out a win.

Posted 14:27 07th September 2012

Kiwikev says...

@ AVP1

Knickers in a bunch over what? Watching any game that the Beast plays in at province, SR or Test level and as soon as he touches the ball, the crowd says only one word but they say it loud and in unison...

Posted 14:19 07th September 2012

APV1 says...

"pands"..? Epic fail from me there.

Posted 14:14 07th September 2012

APV1 says...

@ JayStarr - don't you start!

@ passtheball - World Wildlife Fund? Have a thing for pands, do you?

@ Trader2 - basing opinions on nothing but a whim, having not watched the team play, eh? That's so unlike the posters on this forum. They're usually so well-informed and give honest appraisals, based soley on facts. Emotions are removed and objectivity rules.

Posted 14:14 07th September 2012

georgesmith says...

Boks need to believe. They can, I think. D. Vermeulen should shine. R. Deans is just not pressing the right button. I don't think with players like N.Sharpe, D. Dennis and B. Barnes, Wallabies can pull out anything. Clearly these players don't deserve to be in the starting line-up. Boks by 14 points. N.Sharpe to give away most penalties just like in the previous game..

Posted 14:13 07th September 2012

hayj05 says...

Wallabies will win

Posted 14:10 07th September 2012

Trader2 says...

@jonesy2 I think PR are basing the prediction on the fact that the Wannabies are crap!! Then again I have not watched SA in this Championship so who knows.

Posted 13:27 07th September 2012

passtheball says...

Amazing how often Aus beats SA and how many times its called controversial. The Perth crowd can look forward to -- up and unders, rolling mauls and flying wedges, maybe an intercept - just the ticket for dragging them away from AFL and spreading the joy of rugby. I guess half the crowd will be SA migrants so they will love it.

What sort of a team sheet is that from SARFU? Sounds like WWF or whatever they are called now.

Posted 13:13 07th September 2012

JayStarr says...

@ APV1: Os du Randt real name is also not "Os" (meaning Ox). The same with Rassie Erasmus. I believe at the 1995 World Cup Os was down as Jacobus Petrus Du Randt, and I know Rassie was down as Johan Erasmus at the beginning. Everyone in SA (besides his family probably) calls Tendai "Beast".

Posted 13:00 07th September 2012

bloemboy says...

If Goosen, Flo and Lambie can come on for the last 25 minutes in place of Steyn, Vermeulen and Kotchner, I think the game could get extremely exciting, though Goosen will probably be a little cautious in his first outing. I hope he is able to get an early confidence builder, then things will get electric. Boks by 25 and with a bonus point.

If HM doesnt bring Kirchner and Steyn off, its probably too close to call.

Posted 12:57 07th September 2012

zambokke says...

This 4 game winning streak counts for nothing - the Tri-Nations games in 2011 were a farce and the World Cup was controversial. Yes, we lost but it cannot count towards form. Also, both teams are now completely different to the RWC. In 2011, I thought OK we lose Smit, Bakkies, Victor etc but everyone else will remain and Bismark, Andries and Eben will actually add more power and flair - what a difference a year makes! The Aussies with their retirements and injuries must be thinking the same. We should both be much better (- I'm pining for Schalk, Brussow, Juan etc)

Posted 12:55 07th September 2012

JayStarr says...

Dom Shipperley might be nervous in his first game and drop a high ball, but if he catches it SA is in trouble. The same with Ioane and Beale. I know SA will kick a lot, and I know the Aussie back three will be waiting to counter-attack... If Genia and Cooper finally clicks again, SA will not win. SA's only chance of winning is if these players remain out of form.

Going to be a game of the desperados, so should be entertaining in that at least.

Posted 12:49 07th September 2012

melkdave says...

Well a balanced ,thoughtful article that imo,covered all the relavent points.I too beleive the bokke will win this comming weekend,by7-12 points.Its unfortunat but the wallabies are no where near their 2011 form, They struggled to a series win against a very lackluster Wales ,who had players out of form and also imo Australia have looked worse since.those tests.As to the bokke well we all know its the mangement selections rather than players not performing.Why the persistance with a out of form and limited M.Styen is baffaling us all,espically as P.Lambie has just been warming the bench at best.,also the exclusions of G.Aplon and J.de Jonghie ,are baffaling.Even so i feel the bokke will have just to much for the wallabies this weekend ,Their 1st up tackling has been pretty poor ,and that is something you cant do against the bokke at anytime.,and their tatical kicking has also been bad,along with the lineout.Anyhow enough said from me LOL.Heres just hoping its the usual action packed ,entertaining game for us fans .

Posted 12:33 07th September 2012

ArmchairGeneral says...

hard to call as usually at least onecof them are on form.

Brave ozzie defence kept all but the creative AB attacks from getting through so I don't think the Boks will score tries. Oz home. Deans is a good coach even if Ozzzies don't accept that. HM was not near Deans at club level and is not at international.

Oz by 20. But it depends on good discipline from them.

Posted 12:08 07th September 2012

APV1 says...

@ Ed - fair enough. Then I shall write a sternly worded letter to SARU.

Posted 12:05 07th September 2012

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