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Preview: Ireland v France

08th March 2013 06:58

Kidney v Saint Andre bos

Under pressure: Declan Kidney and Phillipe Saint-André

Two coaches under massive pressure will send their troops into battle in Dublin on Saturday as France seek their first win in 2013 while Ireland try to bounce back from a title-hope-ending loss at Murrayfield.

The stats don't look good for either side. Consecutive Championship losses for Ireland - for the first time since 2008 - have added impetus to the growing calls from high-profile Irish rugby figures for Declan Kidney to be axed after this campaign.

France, meanwhile, are anxious to end their longest Five/Six Nations winless streak (six games) in 55 years and Phillipe Saint-André is facing the very real prospect of eating his humble pie with a wooden spoon. Les Bleus have not gone seven games without a win in the tournament since 1927!

So to say the pressure is on would be an understatement. Thierry Dusautoir's comments that France had to win "no matter the cost" with his coach adding they would "happily sign for a 3-0 victory" are illustrations the desperation the visitors' camp.

While he grapples with never-ending injury woes, Kidney says he isn't thinking past this weekend but it's impossible to believe that the prospect of not having his contract renewed when it expires in a fortnight isn't playing on his mind. The fact that Ireland have won just one of their last 13 games against the French will not be helping him sleep either. His bizarre, and contradictory, statements this week suggest that the pressure is telling.

Both sets of fans have taken issue with their respective coach's choices at fly-half (though, with the exception of Steve Hansen, how many coaches that can say honestly they're in a different position?)

France were rather poor in their first two games with Fred Michalak driving the bus. They then produced their best hour of rugby when Francois Trinh-Duc started, only to fall apart when Michalak returned in the last half-hour at Twickenham. I'm not about to jump on the Michalak-bashing bandwagon because I reckon he IS a great player but even I'm amongst those wondering exactly what Trinh-Duc did merit being dropped. Similarly, Mathieu Bastareaud, who has beaten more tacklers than any other player in the tournament, despite only playing 20 minutes against Italy, also finds himself relegated to the woodwork. Likewise, I'm a fan of Florian Fritz, but after his subdued performances against in Rome and Paris, I don't really understand why he's starting in Dublin.

Ireland's fly-half issues have been of a very different nature and most critics have welcomed Kidney's courage in finally putting the country's most capped player out to pasture despite his first-choice pivot being ruled out by injury. But the way he handled the doubt surrounding Paddy Jackson's fitness for this weekend bordered on farcical, giving four different answers across three separate media briefings as to who will would wear the 10 jersey at Lansdowne Road. First he confirmed Jackson would start, but then said that a decision between who of Jackson and Ian Madigan would be given the nod would be made late on Tuesday. A few minutes later the call had been put back to Thursday and finally he announced that he knew the identity of his fly-half, but he wanted to speak to the two players first before making his choice public. Feeling the heat then are we, Declan?

Having passed a fitness test, Jackson will direct traffic for the men in green and Irish fans will pray that those on his outside will do a better job of converting opportunities after an unholy amount of possession and territory ended up being wasted at Murrayfield. An improvement by Jackson from the kicking tee would help too. Ireland have missed fewer tackles than any other side this season but they have failed to really fire on attack since those blistering first 43 minutes against Wales.

The last quarter has been France's biggest issue. They failed to up the tempo enough when trailing in Rome, there was a fateful lapse in defence in the dying minutes in Paris and the French bench turned the game in the wrong direction at Twickenham. The impact of the replacements, or lack thereof, is a real concern and PSA needs to consider the timing of his changes more carefully.

Considering the stakes, we shouldn't expect an open, free-running game. Margins at this level are incredibly small and, dramatic as it may sound, a tiny mistake on Saturday could cost someone their job.

Who would want to be an international coach? Not me.

Players to watch:

For Ireland: He's a favourite target for critics but Keith Earls has more clean breaks to his name (four) than any other player after three rounds. The Irish front row of Cian Healy, Rory Best and Mike Ross will combine in the for the 20th time on Saturday, equalling Shane Byrne, John Hayes and Reggie Corrigan's record for Ireland. Healy can consider himself lucky to be available after getting off his suspension on a technicality. But the man under the microscope is Paddy Jackson. Given the drama of this week's events, another poor performance is set to make headlines.

For France: Full-back Yoann Huget has evaded 10 tackles so far in the tournament, better than any other player (bar Bastareaud) in the tournament . He is joined in an all-Toulouse back three by Vincent Clerc and Maxime Médard. Clerc has scored eight tries in ten Tests against Ireland, equalling the record for any country against Ireland. He is now France's third most capped winger (behind Philippe Saint-André and Christophe Dominici). Médard makes his first start in over a year and his first on the wing since 2011, when he scored a try against Ireland at this venue. Morgan Parra wins his 50th cap for France but it's only his second alongside Frederic Michalak, who has never lost against Ireland in seven Tests.

Head-to-head: Modern rugby often revolves around the battle between the loose forwards. Sean O'Brien has made more carries (44) than anyone else but second to him is France number eight Louis Picamoles (41). Jamie Heaslip is due a captain's innings after a poor campaign so far while Thierry Dusautoir is the championship's best tackler. The tussle between of the two relatively inexperienced second rows could be interesting. Donnacha Ryan has won more line-outs (14) than any other player after three rounds, whilst Yoann Maestri is joint-second with 13.

Previous results:
2012:17-17 draw at Stade de France, Paris
2011:France won 26-22 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2011:France won 19-12 at Stade Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux
2011:France won 25-22 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2010:France won 33-10 at Stade de France, Paris
2009: Ireland won 30-21 at Croke Park, Dublin
2008: France won 26-21 at Stade de France, Paris
2007: France won 25-3 at Stade de France, Paris (RWC)
2007: France won 20-17 at Croke Park, Dublin
2006: France won 43-31 at Stade de France, Paris
2005: France won 26-19 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2004: France won 35-17 at Stade de France, Paris
2003: France won 43-21 at Colonial Stadium, Melbourne (RWC)

Prediction: Ireland have not lost three in a row in a single championship since 1998. France have lost their last three Test matches but have not lost four in a row since 1989. It's a tough one to call but on the basis of France's first hour at Twickenham we think they have just have the edge. Don't bet your house either way. France by less than five points

Rugby Union betting odds

The teams:

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c) 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Donnacha Ryan, 4 Mike McCarthy, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 David Kilcoyne, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Donnacha O'Callaghan, 20 Iain Henderson, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Luke Fitzgerald.

France: 15 Yoann Huget, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 Florian Fritz, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Maxime Medard, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Thierry Dusautoir, 6 Yannick Nyanga, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Christophe Samson, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Thomas Domingo.
Replacements: 16 Guilhem Guirado, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Luc Ducalcon, 19 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 20 Antonie Claassen, 21 Maxime Machenaud, 22 Francois Trinh-Duc, 23 Mathieu Bastareaud.

Date: March 9
Kick-off: 17:00
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Weather: 6deg C . Light rain (it's Dublin, did you expect anything else?)
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Greg Garner (England)
Television match official: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)

By Ross Hastie

Comments

Dannyboy says...

expat2 That's only true if you don't compare Ireland with any of the other countries in the six nations.

Posted 16:17 08th March 2013

melkdave says...

Well 1st off ,i have to say i do think France will win and win quite comfortable by 10-12 points.I just think the power of the french pack ,will stop Ireland getting any worth while ball,and their backrow is alot better than Irelands bar SOB. by along way.Having said that you just never know with France,if they play as they did against England they will win,if not Ireland have a chance..Myself i dont think France will come to Dublin and not play,as knives are out for players in France not just PSA,and some could see their international futures permently over ,if France lose again..Though some of PSAs selections are still baffaling Fitz for Bastareaud,and Medard on the wing instead of FB,where his a hell of alot more experianced than Huget.Also@JoseArtigas1 couldnt agree with you more.Ive long posted that the IRFU is to focused on the HC,and that its player welfare programme just doesnt work,proof of the pudding all the injuries atm to players..Considering the IRFU has the 2nd highest income of any union in world rugby,its lack of a 7s set up is a disgrace ,but then i expect they would rather give Leinster /Munster and Ulster twice as much money as any other team in the Pro12, and a 1/3 more than english teams ,while also paying the wages of the clubs irish star players.To ensure those clubs success in the league and HC .Rather than invest in the national teams long term success.

Posted 15:06 08th March 2013

carpelone says...

expat2

Yes, if you don't consider the Fijans, Samoans and South African playing for England.

Posted 14:48 08th March 2013

Davoust says...

Go Ireland !

And then go PSA, the sooner the better ! I pray for the wooden spoon for France, the next year's dismissal will be too late for RWC 2015 !

Posted 14:31 08th March 2013

expat2 says...

Guess we shouldn't be too surprised the 2 sides struggling the most in the 6 Nations are the two countries with the highest import rates for their club sides!

Posted 14:24 08th March 2013

Irishzimbabwean says...

Derrynane - good post. Also Ulster kept Gilroy of the pitch behind Terblanche last year.

Posted 13:54 08th March 2013

Stag says...

Jackson is so poor. Madigan is the man for this assignment. The tournament is over for Ireland anyway so would have an opportune time to blood him. Hard to be even excited about tomorrow's match with the thought of Jackson starting. Might give it a miss unless I hear madigan's coming on.

Posted 13:45 08th March 2013

Derrynane says...

JoseArtigas1... agree with you 100% about JJH. The fact that he is not togging out more regularly is due to Munster's preference for a 36 year old fly half. This is crazy for Munster and crazy for Ireland.

Another good example imo is Ian Nagel. MOTM a few years ago for Munster against Australia and since then invisible. Oh I forgot, he is behind another 34+ year old in DOC.

We have lost the plot in this country. Will we ever see a player like Eben Eztebeth trusted at the highest level? I think not. It is more difficult to be leaft out of this squad than it is to get into it (see ROG).

Posted 13:35 08th March 2013

Cabhan says...

Some pretty pathetic comments below and elsewhere on this site. No matter what you think of certain players/coaches, they are trying to do their job and absolutely no need for the infantile name calling.

Earls may have the most clean line breaks, but they count for nothing if you don't finish them off. How many passes has he completed? The brilliance of his break against Scotland was way outshone by his lack of vision to make the simple inside pass to BOD.

I doubth Jackson will be taking the place kicks as I'm sure thats why McFadden was selected.

I reckon it should be a great game, as both sides can afford to throw caution to the wind. Unfortunately, don't think Ireland will win, but Michalak starting has to help our chances. Hes had a very poor championship. Trinh Duc looked the real deal against England, so really can't understand his exclusion.

Posted 11:29 08th March 2013

Irishzimbabwean says...

99call - agreed.

Posted 11:15 08th March 2013

JoseArtigas1 says...

Would rugby followers here agree that both France and Ireland suffer from a contagion rife within rugby: conservative mismanagement?

I would argue that this malaise has been the greatest hindrance to the sport since before the Great Schism but that is not the point I wish to make at the moment.

Irish performances are not what we ¿ Irish rugby supporters ¿ would hope to see in the current championship and miles upon miles of newspaper columns written by experts with a far greater depth of knowledge than myself have been devoted to this.

What I would like to question is the management body which produces the Irish team, the IRFU.

I will attempt to not be too long-winded but I will make a couple of points in two posts.

Ireland have suffered from many injuries this season and those entrusted to come on have suffered, it is obvious that with a smaller playing pool than other nations that our second string should not be as talented as the first XV but our players are not given the opportunity to reach their potential. The example of this retardation I will use is Munster¿s JJ Hanrahan: nominated for IRB Junior Player of the Year last year he is a club mate of my cousin at UL Bohs and has virtually no contact with the club and certainly doesn¿t line out for them. Therefore the only chances for Hanrahan to develop on the pitch this are a half dozen B&I Cup pool matches and/or a half dozen ¿A¿ Interpros, not exactly competitive rugby. Of course he has also had 3 starts and 6 substitute appearances for Munster¿s struggling first team. You would think that a player internationally recognised as among the best of his generation would be given every opportunity to develop but ¿sure what¿d ya be doing that for, hasn¿t our current system worked grand for the last 20 years?¿!!

Posted 10:36 08th March 2013

JoseArtigas1 says...

I see the IRFU¿s wanton unwillingness to develop players highlighted by their attitude to rugby 7s, or lack thereof.

The IRFU claim that high costs prohibit Irish involvement, yet Portugal, Spain, France, Georgia and Scotland qualified from Europe for the 2013 RWC Sevens (unfortunately I couldn¿t find any information on the Irish team sent to qualifying tournament in Portugal). The IRB contribute to the costs of those teams that qualify for their international 7s tournaments meaning that investment in a successful 7s team would not only help develop our backs and backrows but would also costs would drop as success grows. Now, add to that the benefits of staging one of the late season International Rugby 7s Series events in a packed Lansdowne Road over two days in May coinciding with the finals of the AIB League, Rabo Pro12 and Heineken Cup but ¿sure what¿d ya be doing that for, hasn¿t our current system worked grand for the last 20 years?¿!!

Posted 10:32 08th March 2013

rugby_rockstar says...

This is the match I'm most looking forward to. I just feel that both sides are brimming with ethusiasm to put in the best preformance they possibly can to win a match. Motivation on both sides is massive, both teams are on for a backlash after losses in round 3. I reckon its going to be well tasty!

Given the venue I have to go with Ireland. I thought Luke Marshall was brilliant in Murrayfield and BOD has business to put right. The irish pack at home is always monstrous, they want this win. The question mark is Paddy jackson but I think he's deffinatley the best choice open to Kidney and its certainly not his running game that's under fire. He needs to make sure he gets his pack playing in french territory and he's got as good a chance at doing that as michalac. Its all about game management with Ireland at the moment. They ain't got any and they need some. :) (how's that for a summary?)

France are coming off three dodgey losses. you just know the players have ignored saint-andre, formed a huddle in the corner of the cahnging room and said, (cue french accent) Okay mon ami, enough with ze justin bieber type late-ness, Everyone 'as written us off, so, it'z time to play.... RUGBY!!!!"

ireland are in for a fight and I've always been a fan of Medard, Fofana is living up to his eurocup form and on paper the backrow means we're in for a clash of the titans. I can't wait.

And then there is the fall out. the media is out for blood, personally I think they be better off writing about the amount of foreign no.10's playing in france (and the state of the general club game - how many frenchmen actually play for toulon? - they are at the top of the french league!!!! how on earth is that good for France? also the injury list in ireland but, no, they are being lazzy and sensationalist and they want to try and get a coach sacked. Nice behaviour. great journalism, not.

Posted 10:02 08th March 2013

99call says...

3in4

I used to think the Munster fans could be harsh and would question every selection if they didnt have a red shirt in the locker but you take it to a new level, can I ask what age you are as when you resort to the sort of name calling you have come up with here you must be about 12, do you run a round the school yard making up stupid names for players "who that silly man with a turnip for a head picks ahead of my great leinster players"

I have sort of got to the point were I skip past your comments as they are so pathetic but on occasions I still read them for comedy value

Posted 09:57 08th March 2013

carpelone says...

You never know which side of the bed Ireland get up on the day. Honestly, they sometimes produce some really good performances (second game against New Zealand, Australia at the RWC, against the Poms), which they alternate with some low brand rugby. Some of their wheel are falling off and the management failed to blood in new talents when the timing was right. This national team does not reflect the overall value of the Irish rugby. Having said that, I think France will win this, with some (if not big) comfortable margin (around the break).

Posted 09:51 08th March 2013

atg77 says...

Based on history alone, you simply have to go with the French; especially if they can get ball to their deadly back three.

Posted 09:26 08th March 2013

3in4 says...

Last time I saw Fartcher play was in the Wolfhounds game against Saxons last year, and he failed to get his bind even once. What's he done to deserve a place over Hagan? The evidence for Cabbage Head's stupidity just keeps piling up. Or maybe he's just accepted that the end is nigh so he's determined to go down in flames, taking us all with him.

Based on their first hour against England, France will probably win this. The sheer power of Picamoles, Maestri and Dusatoir up front will be too much for us. Clerc will run rings round the ginger love-child all day long. The sooner Madigan comes on for the seriously underdone Jackson the better, if only for damage limitation.

Posted 08:32 08th March 2013

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