Hard ask: Can Ireland contain the French backs?
Ireland take their Six Nations campaign to ice-cold Paris on Saturday, aiming to halt a four-game losing streak against an impressive looking French side.
The French capital has not been a happy hunting ground for the men in green, who have not won at the Stade de France since 2000 - their only victory in Paris since 1972.
Looking back over the last ten years, these sides have faced each other 14 times and Ireland have claimed victory just twice and although the Irish have been playing some decent rugby at times it's hard to see that trend change this weekend.
The way in which les Bleus dispatched Italy last week presented a number of ominous signs for the other Championship title contenders.
It is important to remember that Phillipe Saint-André's squad had a week less than everyone else to prepare but looked very solid in defence as the Azzurri came flying out of the blocks before the hosts found their rhythm in the second half and ran riot.
No one in the French camp is suggesting that PSA has tried to revolutionise the way they operate but the common sentiment is that instructions and expectations are far clearer under the new regime than during the Marc Lièvremont era.
While on the subject of coaches, pressure must surely be mounting on Declan Kidney...or is it?
Not much has changed since the 2009 Grand Slam despite his team's slide down the standings (2nd in 2010 and 3rd in 2011) and the IRB rankings (8th). There is a growing feeling amongst Irish fans that new faces are needed to revive an ageing team but it's not like there is a long queue of youngsters banging on the door. The average age of Saturday's run-on team is 27.9 so they not exactly geriatrics either.
In Kidney's defence, with just a six-day turnaround after a game they nearly won, it would not have made much sense to make wholesale changes.
Back to the game at hand in Paris where Arctic temperatures await the players. TV scheduling commitments have imposed a 21.00 (local time) kick-off. With a handful of domestic games having already been cancelled due to frozen pitches and the mercury expected to drop to 6 degrees below freezing in the capital by the time play starts, all involved are in for an uncomfortable evening.
Vincent Clerc has already spoken of his fears that the pitch - which does not have under-soil heating - will be more suited for ice skating than running rugby. Let's hope the weather doesn't spoil the spectacle.
Speaking of spoiling and Ireland's all-Munster second-row will look to take a page out of Italy's playbook and target the French line-out. Dimitri Szarzewski will not have had loads of practice throwing at Yoann Maestri and after pinching four line-outs off the Welsh, Paul O'Connell and Donncha O'Callaghan will fancy a repeat performance.
But this weekend's result is likely to depend on Ireland's ability to stop France's very dangerous backs. Morgan Parra replacing Dimitri Yachvili does not weaken the French side at all (remember it was Parra's partnership with François Trinh-Duc that led France to the Grand Slam in 2010). Parra will also join three in-form Clermont team-mates and Vincent Clerc, who is closing in on France's all-time try-scoring record.
During the week both Kidney and O'Connell spoke of the need for Ireland to be a yard faster in defence. You don't need to be a genius to realise that giving les Bleus space is a recipe for disaster.
Players to watch:
For France: Left to make an impact off the bench while Louis Picamoles was handed the number eight jersey, Imanol Harinordoquy didn't disappoint last week with an impressive 16 minutes. It's a hard call to drop the versatile and remarkably consistent Julien Bonnaire but Harinordoquy offers everything that Bonnaire does plus a bit more. A serious threat in the line-out and a ferociously hard hitter, his addition makes the French back three positively scary. Also keep an eye on Toulouse lock Yoann Maestri who has been called on to add some fresh legs to a line-out that struggled last weekend.
For Ireland: Two years ago Jonathan Sexton was being hailed as the most exciting thing to happen to Irish rugby since a guy called Brian. But Ireland's Jonny has yet to stamp his authority on his country's number ten jersey the way his namesake did for England. Sexton left eleven points by the wayside prompting many pundits - in the French press especially - to speculate that Ronan O'Gara would be handed back the reins (again). With ROG still breathing down his neck, Sexton is due a big game and with Irish backs against the wall, now is the time for his star to shine. Andrew Trimble has been in cracking form for Ulster and will need to be at his best against a very well organised French defence.
Head-to-heads: As the old saying goes, size doesn't mean everything but 5ft 11, 90kg Keith Earls has a BIG task on his hands in trying to contain his opposite number: 6ft 4, 106kg Aurélien Rougerie. For the fans of big hits, the battle of the back-rows is set to be a highlight of the whole tournament. Harinordoquy-Picamoles-Dusautoir v O'Brien-Heaslip-Ferris: it doesn't get much better than that!
Previous results:
2011: France won 26-22 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2011: France won 19-12 at Stade Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux
2011: France won 25-22 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2010: France won 33-10 at Stade de France, Paris
2009: Ireland won 30-21 at Croke Park, Dublin
2008: France won 26-21 at Stade de France, Paris
2007: France won 25-3 at Stade de France, Paris (RWC)
2007: France won 20-17 at Croke Park, Dublin
2006: France won 43-31 at Stade de France, Paris
2005: France won 26-19 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2004: France won 35-17 at Stade de France, Paris
2003: France won 43-21 at Colonial Stadium, Melbourne (RWC)
2003: Ireland won 15-12 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2002:France won 44-5 at Stade de France, Paris
Prediction: Expect Ireland to come back strongly after last week's disappointment but France should have enough to get the result. France by eight points.
The teams:
France: 15 Maxime Médard, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Julien Malzieu, 10 François Trinh-Duc, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Imanol Harinordoquy, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (capt), 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Pascal Papé, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski, 1 Jean-Baptiste Poux.
Replacements: 16 William Servat, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Lionel Nallet, 19 Julien Bonnaire, 20 Julien Dupuy, 21 Lionel Beauxis, 22 Maxime Mermoz.
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell (capt), 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tom Court, 18 Donnacha Ryan, 19 Peter O'Mahony, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Ronan O'Gara, 22 Fergus McFadden.
Date: Saturday, February 11
Kick-off: 21:00 (20:00 GMT)
Venue: Stade de France
Weather: Clear skies. - 6° C
Referee: Dave Pearson (England)
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Andrew Small (England)
Television match official: Geoff Warren (England)







Comments
Smee says...
With all due respects to what has been without doubt the most spectacular generation of rugby talent to ever defend the green shirt I honestly believe that a change is required. Players, and the manager for that fact, should stop putting their personal Lions desires above those of almost 5 million people. Yes there are players that still hold their own but won't be around for the next RWC and they should be proud enough to make way for the next generation. Have a look at Shane Williams, does anyone doubt he could still be involved in the Wales setup.....
Nevertheless I'll always be behind the team so let's wish them the best of luck in Paris tonight but afterwards lets hope they take a long hard look at what is important.... Individualism or IRELAND.
Posted 18:50 11th February 2012
melkdave says...
@Damo
I disagree that a Triple crown doesnt constute success its only in the last cpl of years 2010 till now its fallen from grace as an achivment primarilly i feel because of the prevalance of Slams 6 in 7 years upto then it was viewed as an achivment second only to a slam whitch where rare perhaps 2 or 3 a decade if lucky
Posted 14:09 11th February 2012
DaveJ says...
the best possible result for Irish rugby is a 20 - 25 point hammering.
Posted 11:14 11th February 2012
leinster_goy says...
@blametheref
liam2me is basically the munster equivalent of thatllbeme. every single comment he's posted (and i've been monitoring them closely) is either a slight at leinster fans or leinster players like sexyboy and darce. he has nothing constructive about anything, just ignore him
Posted 10:59 11th February 2012
damo says...
@ melkdave says...
Your right O'Sullivan won a few tripple crowns but thats not success and Irish fans were blinded by this, he took the best pool of players we ever had and had limited success, the real question is now does Kidney have a plan? I watched Ulster last night and by God nevin Spence is surely 100 times better than Darcy as he is good in the air, powerful and has pace to make a break also, Ireland have no game plan and as such need ROG to play as he leads the team well at 10 and kicks his penalties, $exton is in my opinion the best non kicking 12 in Ireland but Kidney is clueless playing O'Callaghan also who hasnt played a good game in the last 10 for Ireland. Rugby is about possession back line moves etc, Eddie O'sullivan never really had a scrummaging front row in his tenure, Kidney has thanks to Ross/Best and Healy, I believe now is the time to pick Spence/Zebo/Conway/Madigan/O'Malley and swap them in on occasion in this years 6 nations as we kicked away the championship last week in a rudderless display against a weakened Wales side. My final point is Wales are no world beaters they fell over the line against an Ireland team who had no clue what they were doing - Kidney out and Mcgloughlan/Bradley/O'Shea in !!!!
My preference is O'shea
Posted 10:16 11th February 2012
blametheref says...
@Liam2me
Sexton being found out big time?? Two of our most recent great victories were against England who were going for a grand slam and Australia, Sexton was 10 on both occasions, when he left the pitch against Wales we were leading...can't you see that Sexton is the future of Irish rugby and needs that endorsement from Kidney to really progress in the green shirt?
Posted 09:24 11th February 2012
melkdave says...
@Foggey73
IIRC O'Sullivan won 3 triple crowns when in charge of Ireland and came close too 2 slams .Kidney won a slam with O'Sullivans team in 09 .So your question really should be what has Kidney contributed to Irelands national team since taking charge .The jury is making its mind up fast NOTHING so farbut he has time too blood the young talant this summer and aurtum and then we may see something .If i was an irish fan id certinally hope so anyway
Posted 05:13 11th February 2012
liam2me says...
With Sexton (who is being found out big time) at 10 and D'arcy (who hasn't produced in years) at 12 we haven't a hope. France by 20 (until they take the foot off the pedal and let in a try or 2)
Posted 02:16 11th February 2012
jtimkins says...
@vanpersie17
Kevin?
Posted 00:23 11th February 2012
froggy73 says...
I see you all being hard on Kidney. Questions: How many trophees have O'Sullivan or Gartland or Ashton, or Kidd won with Ireland ? Less than Kidney if I am right !
Posted 20:22 10th February 2012
pog_mahone says...
Rolf only a French person would say "WTF" and "consequently" in the same sentence.
Pearson refereeing and Barnes assisting, great. One won't make the big decisions and the other will make the wrong ones.
Posted 19:46 10th February 2012
melkdave says...
Along with most posters i cant see Ireland wining in Paris .I just cannot fathom where they are going to get any consistant go forward ball .The french pack should edge the scrum and the backrows are so even or again edged by France and Ireland reley on it for most of their go forward ball lineouts are about even imo..As to the players well yes they have been Irelands golden genaration but the gameplan is now so dated kicking for posistion and territory and hoping for turnovers at the breakdown or from a lineout. Teams know how to counter it now hence Irelands and SAs problems and lack of wining games France by 10-15 i reckon and Ireland fans in the doldrums as they where before the RWC Kidney is just to conservative in his selections and gameplan imo and i see a growing number of posters wanting him gone .Problem is there is no one to replace him atm except maybe the Ulster coach whos been so badly treated by Ulster imo.@ Bluelion is right Ireands woes at international leval have been on the wall for 3-4 yrs and DK or the IRFU have done nothing about it as their eyes have been firmly locked on getting success for Munster and Lienster at the expense of Ulster and Connacht if need be but i expect a passionate showing against England and Italy / Scotland and maybe 3 wins will save Kidney again .For a GOLDEN GENARATION they really havent won much One SLAM isnt really a decent return considering Wales have had 2 same as France over the same period and England and Scotland have been underperforming or in choas.and that now seems to be finaly being rectified
Posted 19:45 10th February 2012
pog_mahone says...
I was just reading an article I had printed out and came across a comment from bluelion "Welsh and English clubs underperformance in the HEC is only matched by Ireland's perennial underperformance at national level". This was written in December. Man, if you've got any accumulators going I'd love to get a piece of the action. Who's going to win the Grand Slam? Euro2012? What really happened to Shergar?
Posted 19:37 10th February 2012
adamk says...
Is it bad that I'm Irish and I hope we get walloped? Wake up and smell the coffee Deccie, it's 2012... not 2006.
Posted 15:48 10th February 2012
Carpelone says...
@ bluelion
The level of Irish rugby is overall very good, it is a transition period in which new guys have to wear shoes from big guys. It is not easy to start replacing the golden generation. With a better strategy (no kick to post from a long range, no halfbacks subs with 3 minutes to go) Ireland would have sneaked it. Ireland are still the best team when they manage to enter opponents' 22.
Posted 14:45 10th February 2012
marzie says...
Is it okay for me to state that I am both a Leinster fan and prefer Earls to McFadden at 13? We are not going to beat France with a defense-only game and for that fact alone I am quite looking forward to Earls's little breaks and runs. I desperately want Kidney to either do a complete, strategic volte-face - which he won't, utter phlegmatist that he is - or leave, but the joy of Ireland beating France in Paris is not something I'd swap for seeing a decent fella sacked. Us getting walloped by the French wouldn't be that surprising anyway would it? The Italians on the other hand...
Posted 14:05 10th February 2012
paddy91317 says...
I want Ireland to win so much but I also want us to get blown off the park so kidney can be shown the door I have always been optimistic with Ireland but as long as that goon is in charge its hard to see us even beat Scotland and that is depressing because take the same players and put them under martin Johnson and well would perform better
Posted 13:23 10th February 2012
Rosbif says...
@Carpelone. I hope you're prediction is right. Personally, I'm getting nervous. Pearson is unpredictable. -7 degrees means using the backline with precision is tricky. Could end up being a forward battle where winner = territory + aerial competence + discipline + refs decisions + kicking accuracy (including drop goals). Ire are the better team at re-starts, lineouts, and kick chase/reception. Kicking accuracy is assumed to be even, with ROG vs Beauxis to drop a winning goal?? Fra should shade it at scrum time, but refs notoriously unwilling to let one team dominate there. Then it's 2 backrows tearing into one another.
My guess is the result will be closer than people might think.
Here's hoping I'm wrong and Fra run away with it.......Allez!!!
Posted 12:45 10th February 2012
hougiebear says...
France to win by 15-20 points. No hope in hell of an Irish victory without form or BOD.
Posted 12:26 10th February 2012
Sincero says...
"Really, do you think i should go to the cupboard and make a line of all my shoes to find out their size difference?" - rolf
Well, given that they'd all be YOUR shoes, rolf, I'd wager that they'd all be the same size, sir.
Posted 12:24 10th February 2012