Preview: Force v Rebels

Editor

The two teams rumoured to be set for the Super Rugby axe face off at nib Stadium in Perth on Friday as the Force host the Melbourne Rebels.

One of these two are expected to be axed from the competition from next season, but neither are backing down without a fight at the moment. Re-signings continue to be made for 2018 with Jono Lance for the Force and four Rebels players having been announced as staying next term.

This season has been one to forget for the Rebels as they sit on just eight points after one win and one draw, while the Force (17 points) are also out of the playoff race despite having four wins to their name. The Brumbies are setting the pace in the Conference on 33 points.

Because of their superior season thus far, the Force are favourites to get the win at home. However, the Rebels have won eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams, including each of the last two, though only once has this fixture been decided by more than seven points. 

A 26-19 victory over the Reds in Round 2 this season sees the Force hunt for back-to-back home wins against Australian opposition for the first time since Round 18, 2014. And with the Rebels winless in their last six matches away from home (D1, L5), with their five losses in that period coming by an average margin of 40 points, it is tough to see the side from Melbourne finding the answers against their hosts.

It truly has been a dismal campaign from the Rebels as they have leaked over 500 points, which is an average of 39 per game and worryingly five tries. That should buoy the Force as they look to finish their season strongly with two games in Perth, the next against the Waratahs.

They should get over the first hurdle this week with head coach David Wessels doing an admirable job as he and the squad look to leapfrog the 'Tahs into second place in the Australian Conference which, after all those off-field distractions, would be an excellent achievement.

The last time the teams met: The Rebels won 27-22 in Round 14 last year as Reece Hodge, Sefanaia Naivalu (2) and Lopeti Timani scored for them. Timani and Naivalu's second proved vital in the second-half, as the Force had stayed in touch thanks to tries from Luke Morahan and Harry Scoble. But Naivalu's second score meant Morahan's brace still saw the Force needing a converted try to win which they couldn't get.

Players to watch:

For Force: Two Wallabies who enjoyed strong Junes are back in the Force side this week and will be looking to continue that form in Super Rugby's run-in. They are Tatafu Polota-Nau and Adam Coleman, who are both integral to the Force dog fight up front. Coleman offered a great deal in terms of carrying for the Wallabies and appears to be adding offloading to his game, which is great news for both franchise and country.

For Rebels: Plenty of weight has been put on the shoulders of fly-half Jackson Garden-Bachop since his arrival but so far he unfortunately hasn't delivered in terms of challenging opposition defences. The Rebels do have powerful attacking threats in Reece Hodge and Mitch Inman in the midfield with strike options out wide so both Garden-Bachop and Nic Strizaker need to put them in holes if these Rebels are to fire.

Team news: Wallaby hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau returns from national duties and will have Pek Cowan and Jermaine Ainsley beside him up front. Adam Coleman is set to start at lock and will lead the side for the first time and become the 13th Force captain. Recent Wallaby debutant Richard Hardwick will start in the number seven jersey and link up with fellow local product Ross Haylett-Petty and Isi Naisarani. In the backline, speedster Chance Peni returns from a lengthy period on the sidelines due to a groin injury and will be looking to pick up where he left off. Brynard Stander comes into the 23 while Jono Lance is back after a broken hand and is set to play his 50th Super Rugby match.

Rebels head coach Tony McGahan has made eight changes to his squad as Scottish-native Murray Douglas will make his first Super Rugby start after being named at lock for his second Rebels appearance following his debut in Round 4 against the Chiefs. Prop Laurie Weeks, fly-half Jackson Garden-Bachop and full-back Jonah Placid return to their starting side. A season ending injury to wing Sefa Naivalu in Australia's final Test against Italy has forced McGahan to shuffle the backline with Reece Hodge to partner Mitch Inman in midfield, while Tom English has been moved to the wing and Placid to 15 for his first start of 2017. Jordan Uelese, Sione Tuipulotu and Jack Maddocks are on the bench.

Form: Two wins in their last four outings has boosted confidence for the Force, but last time out they were defeated 34-12 at home by the Hurricanes. At home they have won 33 percent of their games and will hope to improve that number with victory over their Australian rivals.

The Rebels have lost their last six games which tops their previous run of five straight defeats earlier in the season. As mentioned they have won just one game and drawn another in 2017, conceding 71 tries to date. They have a points differential of -321 going into Round 16.

Prediction: Home win here for us. Force by 12.

Previous results:

2016: Rebels won 27-22 in Melbourne
2016: Rebels won 25-19 in Perth
2015: Force won 13-11 in Melbourne
2015: Rebels won 21-17 in Perth
2014: Force won 22-16 in Melbourne
2014: Force won 32-7 in Perth
2013: Rebels won 30-23 in Perth
2013: Rebels won 30-23 in Melbourne

The teams:

Force: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Chance Peni, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Bill Meakes, 11 Alex Newsome, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Ross Haylett-Petty, 5 Adam Coleman (c), 4 Matt Philip, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Pek Cowan
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Francois van Wyk, 18 Tetera Faulkner, 19 Lewis Carmichael, 20 Brynard Stander, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Jono Lance, 23 James Verity-Amm

Rebels: 15 Jonah Placid, 14 Tom English, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 Nic Stirzaker (c), 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Lopeti Timani, 5 Steve Cummins, 4 Murray Douglas, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 James Hanson, 1 Toby Smith
Replacements: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 Cruze Ah Nau, 18 Fereti Sa’aga, 19 Culum Retallick, 20 Hugh Sinclair, 21 Ben Meehan, 22 Sione Tuipulotu, 23 Jack Maddocks

Date: Friday, July 7
Venue: nib Stadium, Perth
Kick-off: 17:45 local (11:55 GMT)
Referee: William Houston (Australia)
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper (Australia), Damon Murphy (Australia)
Television match official: Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)