Preview: Brumbies v Rebels

Editor

The Brumbies and Rebels rather epitomise the current issues of the Australia Conference having struggled over recent weeks.

It was such a promising start for the Melbourne outfit in particular, but matters have got increasingly worse week-by-week. Defeat has followed defeat and, although it is usually no disgrace to lose to the defending champions, their reversal at the hands of the Crusaders was arguably the worst of the lot.

Akin to the game against the Hurricanes, they were competitive for the first half but Dave Wessels’ men have been unable to sustain that intensity for 80 minutes, especially against the New Zealand sides, and they were outplayed after the break.

Remarkably – and this rather sums up the state of rugby in the country – the Rebels are still very much in contention for a place in the play-offs. Although the Waratahs have a game in hand, Daryl Gibson’s men are only four points ahead and have to head to Christchurch to take on the 2017 Super Rugby winners this weekend.

It could therefore leave the door open for Wessels’ charges to claim top spot. With their next three games against the Brumbies, Sunwolves and Blues eminently winnable before they host the ‘Tahs, the Melbourne team could be in pole position going into that crunch clash.

Equally, the other franchises in the conference may fancy their chances of sneaking into the last eight. The Canberra outfit are one of those but, like the Waratahs, their run-in is not favourable and their form is almost as bad as Saturday’s opponents.

This encounter is therefore rather crucial to both. While the Brumbies will not automatically come into the equation by winning at the weekend, it will give them hope, whereas a defeat would effectively end their season.

For the Rebels, a loss would not be catastrophic but a victory should set them up nicely for their final few games of the campaign, where they could claim a landmark play-off berth.

The last time the teams met: Dave Wessels’ men went away with a comfortable victory, defeating the Brumbies 33-10 thanks to an excellent display in the final 15 minutes. The visitors took the lead via Chance Peni but tries from Amanaki Mafi and Reece Hodge gave the home side the lead at the interval. Henry Speight responded for the Brumbies in the second period to give them hope going into the latter stages, but the Rebels pulled away as Hodge, Jack Maddocks and Michael Ruru completed the win with quick-fire efforts.

Players to watch:

For Brumbies: With Isi Naisarani out, pressure will come on Rob Valetini to provide the go-forward from the number eight position. Valetini has only just returned from injury, with the back-rower set to play his first match since their opening encounter against the Sunwolves, but the 19-year-old is a talent. He featured for Australia in the World Rugby U20 Championship last year and the youngster’s battle against Rebels’ star Amanaki Mafi is certainly one to watch.

For Rebels: Dave Wessels is missing a couple of key men in the shape of Dane Haylett-Petty and Will Genia, and it will be interesting to see how Semisi Tupou and Michael Ruru do in their place. In particular, for the wing it will be a step up with the youngster due to make his first start on Saturday having rarely featured this season. Like Valetini for the Brumbies, Tupou is a talented teenager who has impressed at U20 level, but Super Rugby is another challenge altogether.

Team news: Head coach Dan McKellar has made four changes to the Brumbies’ starting XV for this derby.

Christian Lealiifano, Lachlan McCaffrey and Rob Valetini all return to bolster the side. Lealiifano slots into the inside centre role alongside Tevita Kuridrani, who is winning his 99th Brumbies Super Rugby cap, as McKellar switches two in the pack and two in the backs.

There’s a welcome, and timely, return from injury for two of the club’s back-rowers as young gun Valetini packs down at number eight, featuring for the first time since he was taken off injured in the season opener against the Sunwolves in Tokyo back in February.

Valetini is joined by flanker McCaffrey, the experienced forward having recovered from an elbow injury sustained in the clash with the Reds at GIO Stadium which forced him to miss three matches.

This duo are joined by Tom Cusack in the back-row whilst the remainder of the pack, the tight five, is the same as took to the field against the Crusaders in the team’s last outing. Sam Carter and Rory Arnold are a solid and dependable lock pairing behind a settled front-row of Scott Sio, Folau Fainga’a and Allan Alaalatoa.

In the backs, there’s a return to the starting side for Andrew Muirhead, his first start since playing at full-back against the Waratahs and a maiden outing on the left wing, selected in place of Chance Peni.

Meanwhile, Junior Wallabies representative Semisi Tupou will make his first start as one of three changes to the Rebels’ line-up, when they take on the Brumbies in Canberra.

Michael Ruru will return to the starting line-up for the injured Will Genia, while Tom English returns to the centres in place of Billy Meakes.

Form: Both teams are currently enduring a dreadful run of form. The Brumbies have lost their last three, and four of their past five having succumbed to the Waratahs, Highlanders, Jaguares and Crusaders. Most concerning is that they have mainly come at home and, as a result, may struggle to be in contention at the end of the campaign, but who knows with the Australian Conference?

That could equally apply to the Rebels, who have suffered five defeats in a row, but they may conceivably end the weekend at the top of the table, overtaking the Waratahs. The Melbourne-based team started so well, producing some genuinely impressive performances in thrashing the Reds (45-19) and Sharks (46-14), but it has gone significantly downhill since the victory over the South Africans. None of those losses have been against fellow Australian franchises, however, so that may fall in their favour when heading into this encounter.

Prediction: It is a tough one to call with the visitors in awful form but the Brumbies are missing key back-row linchpins David Pocock and Isi Naisarani, and that could be decisive. Rebels by 4.

Previous results:

2018: Rebels won 33-10 in Melbourne
2017: Brumbies won 32-3 in Canberra
2017: Rebels won 19-17 in Melbourne
2016: Brumbies won 30-22 in Melbourne
2015: Rebels won 13-8 in Canberra
2015: Brumbies won 20-15 in Melbourne
2014: Brumbies won 37-10 in Canberra
2014: Rebels won 32-24 in Melbourne
2013: Brumbies won 39-17 in Canberra
2013: Brumbies won 30-13 in Melbourne

The teams:

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Wharenui Hawera, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Tom Cusack, 6 Lachlan McCaffrey, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Robbie Abel, 17 Faalelei Sione, 18 Ben Alexander, 19 Blake Enever, 20 Lolo Fakaosilea, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Jordan Jackson-Hope, 23 Lausii Taliauli

Rebels: 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 Semisi Tupou, 13 Tom English, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Adam Coleman (c), 4 Geoff Parling, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Fereti Sa’aga
Replacements: 16 Nathan Charles, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Jermaine Ainsley, 19 Matt Philip, 20 Sam Jeffries, 21 Lopeti Timani, 22 Harrison Goddard, 23 Billy Meakes

Date: Saturday, May 12
Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
Kick-off: 19:45 local (09:45 GMT)
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant referees: Will Houston (Australia), Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)