Rugby is one of the most popular sports in much of the world and as such is also a great sport to place bets on, with domestic matches being played in many countries every single week and international matches offering some exciting spots to find value.
But betting on any sports, including rugby, is a dangerous task. If you are not careful, the bookies will get the best of you in the long run, which is why it is so important to find the bets that are worth placing money on before actually placing any bets.
Professional bettors call this finding value in a bet, and when it comes to rugby there are quite a few ways you can determine whether a bet has value or not. First of all, let us consider what a value bet actually is.
What Are Value Bets
When betting sports, most casual punters simply try to magically predict the outcome of a match. While outcomes of matches can be predicted to some degree, the bookies are doing the same thing, but they don’t really care who will win the particular match. Instead, the bookies assess the chances of one side or the other winning, and determine the odds based on this probability.
For instance, a bookie may determine that both teams have 50% chance of winning the game straight up. In this case, you would expect the odds to be 2.00 on both teams, but they will in fact usually be something along the lines of 1.90 on both teams, with the bookie making a profit in the long run no matter what happens.
To counter this, a player must predict the probabilities of a match ending one way or another better than the bookie. In the above example, an experienced rugby fan my actually know that for instance one team has a player who knows how to exploit the other team’s weaknesses really well, which may mean the team has a 60% or a 65% chance of winning, making the 1.90 odds perfectly reasonable.
Finding The Value Bet
In order to be able to find such value bets, you have to first truly understand the game and keep track of the results, form and other factors. Some of the most important factors in determining how a match will end include recent teams form, injuries, previous head to head matchups of the two teams and general teams strength.
These are all relative things and it will be up to you to assess them better than the bookies, who largely use computer algorithms to make the odds instead of actually analyzing one match after another by hand. When the computers are involved, chances are some mistakes will be made, and there is truly no replacement for understanding how a team plays and watching them play on a weekly basis. A true fan of the game will surely know better than an algorithm that deals purely with statistics, but it will take a ton of effort.
In the end, one thing is for sure, and that is the fact you should never bet without believing that the bookie has offered favorable odds. No matter how much you believe a team will win, don’t bet when the odds are bad as there is simply no value in that and upsets happen on a regular basis.
Where Do I Bet?
Another common mistake people make is betting with the wrong bookies. You will clearly want a bookie who offers solid odds, is reliable in paying out the bets and offers a variety of ways to move money around, which can be crucial in the online world. American citizens for instance can’t bet on just any sites, but there are still sites who will accept their bets, as you can read more about here!
Remember to always keep your eyes on the prize by looking for the best odds on rugby matches, as every bookmaker has a different way of assessing those and even this very fact means that there is certainly value to be had in rugby betting, as even the bookies can’t always come to terms on what the odds should be.
Above all else, patience is the key factor to successful rugby betting. Most matches will not offer much if any value, so you should simply steer clear of these. Wait it out until there is a match out there actually worth betting and place your money on those bets that make sense in the long run.