Expert Witness: Peter Winterbottom ahead of first Test

Editor

It is 24 long years since the British and Irish last beat New Zealand.

This week’s Expert Witness, flanker Peter Winterbottom, was part of that victorious Lions side in Wellington in 1993 and joins us to discuss selection, history and strategy.

The Selected Few

With Warren Gatland naming a team that is largely as predicted, the Waikato man’s musings have thrown a few surprises, none bigger than the relegation of form lock Maro Itoje to the bench:

"The team is pretty much as most people would want bearing in mind Gatland was always going to favour the physical approach with two big guys in centre channels," observed Winterbottom.

"One of the keys of the Test, especially considering the weather forecast, is going to be the aerial battle and I’m pleased to see the back three of Anthony Watson, Elliot Daly and Liam Williams selected on both on form, but also with a nod to their ability to support kick chases and re-starts.

"However, the big talking point has been the benching of Maro Itoje and I’m very surprised he’s not starting as he’s the one player that will match in every department the skill and physicality of the All Blacks.

"I had written down in my test notes “Maro MUST start” and I still hold that view and I believe Warren has got this bit wrong," explained the former Harlequin.

"The second row is a very competitive positon and you have to question if Alun-Wyn Jones has been one of the best three locks on tour and also challenge whether or not a starting Itoje with a benching Courtney Lawes or Iain Henderson would have better reflection of the form shown on the tour to date. In my view it would have given Gatland both a better starting side and potentially, more physical impact in the replacements.

"In terms of impact, I’m also a little disappointed that Justin Tipuric, a real openside craftsman, isn’t there to add a dynamic option. Sam Warburton has many great qualities but bringing him off the bench doesn’t change much; in cricketing terms it’s the old adage of ‘changing the bowlers but not changing the bowling’ and I feel that Justin would have raised the tempo of the game and been more creative than perhaps Sam can be."

"Nevertheless, aside from a couple of points, Warren’s selected wholly on form and been true to his word in regard to that," concluded Winterbottom.

What to Expect

With Lions tours now scheduled four years apart rotating between three countries, visits to New Zealand are few and far between and only the fortunate few ever get the chance to participate.

Winterbottom played in seven tests for the Lions in New Zealand on two tours and is under no misapprehension of just how much this means to the All Blacks but equally importantly, how defining it is for the culture of the country itself.

"Touring New Zealand with the Lions is another level of intensity and performance. The whole country is abuzz with excitement and everyone, from the newsagent to the taxi driver, will have a strong view and understanding of the importance series and its history," he explained.

"Above all, the team and the public demand to see a Lions side that are worthy of the heritage and history; a side that’s going to push their heroes right down to the wire and challenge them every step of the way.

"They really don’t want to see an All Black whitewash; Gatland’s Lions have won a lot of praise darting the trip from pundits and watchers alike. They’ve gained some grudging respect from the locals and that means that even the Kiwis expect them and want them to perform.

"Of course, that doesn’t mean to say the All Blacks won’t be pilloried if they lose, but nevertheless, all in New Zealand want to see arguably the two best sides on the planet pushing their standards even higher," said Winterbottom.

"In 1993, we had a mixed set of results leading up to the first Test and we went in a little undercooked, and possibly with a few issues surrounding selection.

"Nevertheless, the All Blacks were very rusty in that game and we led right up until Grant Fox’s penalty to win the game in the last ten. In truth we felt they were not firing and walked away from that match considering it a lost opportunity.

"Moving into the second Test, we lost to Auckland but went up a notch in terms of performance. From this game a few players like Brian Moore and a callow Martin Johnson put their hands up and with Jason Leonard coming in at tighthead, we went into the Wellington game confident, and the resulting win led by a great forward display was one of the greatest moments of my career," smiled Winterbottom.

"What we didn’t expect was the backlash in the Kiwi media and within the general public leading up to the deciding Test. I believe questions were even asked in the New Zealand Parliament, which shows just what a measure of the national identity rugby is on these amazing islands.

"And, despite us doing everything we could up to the third Test, that backlash continued from the All Blacks themselves and they went up another 30% in terms of intensity and power. It was astonishing; we felt we’d improved significantly up to that match and really fancied it, but no-one would have lived with New Zealand that day and we could not believe how far they pushed up their performance levels in just two weeks. They were men possessed and utterly compelling, and it really brought home to us that in fact we were not playing against XV, but against every man, woman and child in the country.

"This is the whole reason why the First Test is crucial. It’s the time to strike whilst we are hot and they are cold and win this game, the whole country will be rocked and the series will be on fire!"

The First Test Factors

Home Unions wins against New Zealand are few and far between. In the last two instances, England 2012 and Ireland 2016, two statistical anomalies throw up an interesting debate. Both Ireland and England won with significantly less possession than their opponents.

Contrast that with, as an example, England’s last three games against New Zealand where we see them with between 55 and 60% match possession but losing, and an interesting theme emerges; New Zealand’s ability to play without the ball:

"The All Blacks are masters of soaking pressure. Since the World Cup in 2011 about 65-70% of their tries have come from turnover situations and broken field play against a scrambled defence," he said.

"Their ability to absorb attack, especially in the 10/12 channel, back themselves to defend the phases until one player becomes isolated and then turn them over, is legendary. No-one does it better and one of my key concerns is that the Lions have, in selecting Farrell and Te’o together, rather than Sexton with Farrell at 12, announced to the world they’re going to attack the Beauden Barrett channel, precisely the areas where the All Blacks habitually defend with the intent of turning over ball.

"It’s key the Lions support every carry, giving options to the carrier of offload, ruck and clean, or pass. Three options, all needed for each break.

"Equally, return kicks can be seen as a form of turn over, and the Lions defensive pace from their back three must chase and harry every kick as if their life depends on it.

"Taking care of the ball is an obvious thing to say, but by that I mean going wide for the sake of width is pointless. Create phases, create holes, get props and locks defending out wide through by committing defenders with dynamic rucks and then go wide by all means, but you need to earn that right first, otherwise all you will achieve is a gain of say 40 metres, but 40m laterally across the pitch," laughed Winterbottom.

Defend, Defend, Defend

"Our defence will be led by Owen Farrell and he is a genius in getting his midfield up quickly and in the faces of the All Blacks. It might sound negative, but slowing their continuity is key, whatever it takes to do that. Tie players in, throw them back to their side of the ruck but make that ball as messy and as slow as you can for their half-backs.

"The All Blacks will use wave after wave of support runners on the carry, looking for the pass or offload. It’s essential that the defence maintains its collective and individual shape.

"Small margins, like closing one of your shoulders off and not facing chest on able to step to defend on both sides, are game changers and the All Blacks will notice this and attack it quicker than you could ever imagine.

"We need to keep the defensive shape at all times and prevent the All Blacks getting behind is and making us change to a scramble defence. This is when they tear sides apart and we see those sublime running and attacking skills.

"The British and Irish Lions are prepared as well as they can be. However, no preparation and no words of wisdom can come close to feel of that first hit, the power of the first scrum, the pace of the first break, until you actually have experienced it first-hand.

"It will be 20% faster, harder and more passionate than anything the Lions have ever faced before in their entire careers and how they respond to that raised bar will define their lives for years to come.

"There’s nothing as good as being a winning Lion but nothing so dejecting as believing you ‘left something out there’ after the game.

"It will be an epic test, and providing the Lions can cope with the passion and skill of the All Blacks in the first half, then they’ll create doubts," concluded Winterbottom.

"Can they do? Of course they can. Will they do it? Well, I would still start NZ as favourites but if we play our game, frustrate and harry the Kiwis then maybe we could sneak this and set the series up to be one of the best."

We thank Peter for his time and wish him the best of luck as he embarks on a cycling trip from Test Ground to Test Ground to raise money for the children’s charity Wooden Spoon https://woodenspoon.org.uk/ via his own project www.rideofthelegendsnz2017.co.nz

Peter Winterbottom is one of rugby’s greatest flankers. A tearaway openside with 58 England caps and 7 Lions Tests against New Zealand in both 1983 and 1993, gaining a Man of the Match award in the Lions’ win in 1993. During the 1983 series, Winterbottom was voted one of New Zealand’s 5 Players of the Year. He also played a season for Hawke’s Bay in 1982, an experience to fast track his development.