Analysis: Scarlets’ improving defence

Editor

Our resident analyst focusses on a new strength to the Scarlets’ game which has led to their return to the PRO12 play-offs.

On Saturday, the Saracens took yet another metronomic win in a major game. While their dominance might not stretch to every game of the season, they are masterful when it comes to bringing it all together for the games that matter.

Despite only securing an away semi final in the Premiership play-offs, few think the Sarries are really the third best team and few think they will fail to add yet more trophies to their creaking mantelpiece.

However, I’ve written about Saracens at length during the season, primarily because they just are so interesting tactically. So, I thought I’d take this rare opportunity to write about the team that I support, the Scarlets, as they prepare for the PRO2 play-off semi-final in Dublin.

Mention the Scarlets to most people and they will imagine free flowing, running rugby – probably played in the rain of west Wales. That stereotype continues to largely hold true, but the Scarlets have actually only scored 66 tries this season, a pretty low number for their league position.

To put that into perspective, that’s eight lower than the next lowest play-off team, Ospreys, and you won’t find a lower total until you get to Cardiff’s 59, in 7th place. Leinster, their next opponents, lead the way with 91.

What has really made a difference, is their stinginess in defence. This season, they’ve conceded 40 tries, 14 fewer than last year. Only Munster have allowed fewer.

To go off on a bit of a tangent, last year, they had a try difference of -9. This year it’s 26. Last year, only the Dragons, Zebre and Treviso had conceded more tries than the West Walians.

Whilst it’s tempting to claim that the Scarlets are just a team to throw caution to the wind and throw the ball around, in reality, their success this year has been built on a solid backbone.

This is an important point in performance analysis and a key plot point in the book and film, Moneyball. Essentially, the value of scoring a try, slightly less than seven points, is equal to the value of preventing a try. It’s a little difficult in rugby, because it’s hard to work out how much one person was responsible for either scoring/preventing a try.

But, a sport like cricket is much simpler. If a fielder turns a four, hit near any other fielder, into two runs, he’s saved two runs for his team. Therefore, he can afford to be a little weaker with the bat because he has ‘fielding runs’ stored up.

This is what we see with the Scarlets; a little weaker than similar teams around them in attack, but making up for it with very impressive defence. In this article, we’ll look at the different things they’ve done.

One of the keys to the improved Scarlets defence comes from their improved pack. Tadhg Beirne has been an absolute revolution in the second row and has to be on the radar for Ireland in the next few years, and will almost certainly relish the chance to take on his old club. In the clip above though, Josh Macleod is the focus (red scrum cap).

He doesn’t have as many column inches written about him as James Davies, but he’s a good replacement if a dogged, headgear wearing flanker is needed. He spots that there’s a chance to snatch the ball and he throws himself in, along with Beirne. Macleod actually ends up hitting the ruck twice.

The ball isn’t won, but it forces the Ospreys to commit more men to the ruck and slows down the delivery – so job well done.

Even the best flankers fail to steal the ball that often. Four turnovers a game would be a very good result, but you’d be disappointed if that flanker only got to a ruck five times. Therefore, they need to turn failures into some kind of success, which Macleod does in this above example, by slowing the ball right down alongside Jake Ball.

They don’t just slow the ball down and annoy the opposition though. By continually burrowing through the ruck, they end up weakening the body positions of the opposition, and with another player close behind willing to join in, they can steal the ball as in the above example.

The key though, is their constantly running motors, which overwhelm many other teams. In the above example, Macleod is simply the first person to the ball and steals it back, a job James Davies would do as well. This is the classic flanker role, sticking your head where nobody else would and irritating everybody on the opposite team.

Another key element in the recent improvements is Will Boyde. The number eight is, apparently, 1.80m, but I would like whichever tape measure he used to get that, and 93kg. Despite his size disadvantages he punches way above his weight and adds the sledge hammer qualities to the precise scalpels of Davies and Macleod, either by smashing attackers back or holding up people twice his size.

Boyde doesn’t get the turnover here, but he does slow everything down when Connacht are building momentum towards the Scarlets’ line. This is one of the most obvious parts of the Welsh side’s defence, they are desperate to rip the ball in the tackle. As you can see in the two below examples, it doesn’t always work:

But when it does, you get attacking ball, confusion, and a clumped defence. The Scarlets are really good at doing it:

Whether it’s this rip above, and subsequent Scarlets’ scrum, by DTH Van der Merwe.

Or this rip and counter attack from Scott Williams (12), the like of which will leave Courtney Lawes in a cold sweat.

Or this Ken Owens rip, coupled with a prop miss pass collectors’ item. Whichever way it’s done, the Scarlets message is clear; try and run into us and steal some extra metres and we will punish it.

Conclusion

The improvement made by the Scarlets this season has been incredible. By improving their scoring by 21 and defence by 14 tries a season, they’ve essentially had the same swing in performance they would’ve got if they’d have tacked on the entire attack of Treviso.

What is incredible is that only the Ospreys, Munster and the Scarlets have actually reduced their try conceded total since last year – Ospreys and Munster combine for a nine-try reduction. This has carried them all the way to a play-off spot and a trip to Leinster.

The success is probably sustainable as well. Yes they will lose Ken Owens, Jon Davies, and Scott Williams to Welsh duty, but the real core of the squad – Will Boyde, James Davies, Aaron Shingler, Josh Macleod, Tadhg Beirne, Rhys Patchell, and Steff Evans – will all be a year more experience and still young enough to improve.

They are all the reasons to be cheerful. The reasons for concern are that the last league loss was in March, but it was a 45-9 drubbing at the hands of Leinster in Dublin. Before that, it was a loss away at Ospreys. In fact, all but one of their losses have come away from Parc y Scarlets.

If you include the Champions Cup, all three away games ended in losses. This isn’t a team who are looking forward to hopping on a plane. But, their young forwards don’t care whether they are making a nuisance of themselves at home or away and as soon as the ball is held up, you’ll be able to watch them swoop in and pickpocket the ball carrier.

I’m hugely looking forward to this match up and the potential new era it heralds for the boys from Llanelli.

Lions Implications

Ken Owens and Jonathan Davies, and outgoing Liam Williams, are on the plane, and there’s a chance that Scott Williams may join them depending on injuries. As players, it’s unlikely that these three can bring much from the specifics of the Scarlets game-plan.

But, it’s likely that Andy Farrell and Warren Gatland have looked at how they can halt the Kiwi attack by holding up players and stripping the ball. Everybody knows that you need two men in the tackle to stop the offload, why not get the second man to attempt to dislodge the ball?

by Sam Larner